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Preliminary musings…
Tartan Bearer is an unlikely runner – seem to remember reading he is being aimed at the Champion Stakes.
Dr. Fremantle Probably my mistake, but unlike Friggo I don’t fancy this one’s chances. Seems destined to find one or two too good on the day.
I rate the chances of Sir Michael’s other possible runners a bit higher. But as a Queen’s Vase winner Patkai has to beat the stats. And although before his last race I thought Conduit was a real player, now I’m not so sure. Made very hard work of it in beating Donegal.
Like most, I really like Look Here – but maybe not for this race. She is mighty, but she is little. Her trainer thinks she needs time between her races – and there isn’t that much time between the Yorkshire Oaks and the Leger. Her participation would seem to be dependent on well she comes out of the Oaks.
I think Frozen Fire is the most likely winner if he runs. Will Coolmore want to see their Irish Derby winner in the Leger?
The Voltigeur will surely give us some extra pieces to the jigsaw.
Aidan O’Brien describes Frozen Fire as "far from certain" to go for the Leger. It looks more likely that he’ll be aimed instead at the Arc.
Great news for us Doctor fans Gus- I can’t believe he’s still 16/1, and have had another scutch at him with Coral this evening.
Doctor Fremantle was the bonafide St Leger candidate from when the Classic season had begun. That always is a positive pointer.
Not fussed about the Grand Prix de Paris – he botched the start and the race had concluded there and then.
I’d prefer a horse who has been on a long-term focus for the race.
Patkai is a deserving favourite but the Queen’s Vase trend is damning evidence that puts considerable doubt into me.
Kensington Oval is quite short with some corporates at 20/1 whilst Doctor Fremantle is 14s/16s. Has the pedigree for a St Leger but he has run twice lifetime.
Great news for us Doctor fans Gus- I can’t believe he’s still 16/1, and have had another scutch at him with Coral this evening.
He certainly looks good ew value to me. How Donegal gets on at Newbury on Saturday will be a pointer to Conduit’s chance.
Look Here is "doubtful" for the Leger and definitely misses the Yorkshire Oaks.
Gutted. Was really looking forward to seeing her run again as well. I hope she turns up for the Leger. May be a blessing in disguise…
Thanks DJ
Repeat
Thoughts after today? Paktai?
Is Look Here still "doubtful"? Still quite prominent in the betting. Very interested in her chances myself. Certainly seems bred to stay too
Im suprised Conduit remains as short as he does. That Goodwood run was very underwhelming and donegal didnt exactly boost the form next time
Hi Clive,
Patkai was extremley dissapointing for me today. I felt from a long way out that Winston seemed to be sitting too far off the pace for me and it was a strange dip down in trip from the last Ascot run. If Patkai was to stand a chance in today’s trip I wouldve liked to see Stoute send him to a smaller class 1m4f somwhere between today and the Ascot run.
Top Lock seemd the class in the race to me and seems to be able to run on any ground and this is why I’d prefer Top Lock to Centennial for the Leger. That’s if Centennial is even supplimented!
I’ve taken a nice price of 26/1 on Unsung Heroine a few weeks back and am enjoying seeing the price drop rapidly which makes me think Unsung Heroine will be a certain entry.
If Look Here does come back and gets a run before the Leger I’ll possibly edge towards her. The run at Epson was sublime.
Don’t forget Moonstone and Doctor Freemantle though who, with the right preperation before hand, could most certainly seem under price on today’s prices come Leger day.
Dan
Looks a very weak race now. As I said on the Voltigeur thread I’ve laid Patkai and am very comfortable with that now. Am still hoping Doctor F makes the gig but his absence from all engagements recently is a worry.
You’d have to think that the race is at the mercy of Ballydoyle if they send anything half decent there.Sorry chaps. Didnt notice this thread.
Heres my response regarding the Leger should the other thread be deleted:
Hi Clive,
Patkai was extremley dissapointing for me today. I felt from a long way out that Winston seemed to be sitting too far off the pace for me and it was a strange dip down in trip from the last Ascot run. If Patkai was to stand a chance in today’s trip I wouldve liked to see Stoute send him to a smaller class 1m4f somwhere between today and the Ascot run.
Top Lock seemd the class in the race to me and seems to be able to run on any ground and this is why I’d prefer Top Lock to Centennial for the Leger. That’s if Centennial is even supplimented!
I’ve taken a nice price of 26/1 on Unsung Heroine a few weeks back and am enjoying seeing the price drop rapidly which makes me think Unsung Heroine will be a certain entry.
If Look Here does come back and gets a run before the Leger I’ll possibly edge towards her. The run at Epson was sublime.
Don’t forget Moonstone and Doctor Freemantle though who, with the right preperation before hand, could most certainly seem under price on today’s prices come Leger day.
Dan
I am genuinely quite surprised that no-one fancies Washington Irving at 20-1, the horse is crying out for further than 1m4f, and his run in the ballyroan suggested that O’brien had this as the target for him for some time, but also that he has bounced back from his flop in the irish derby. IMO he definitely has significant improvement in him for a 2f step up, and I think he’s firmly in the picture at 20-1. Should be placed, could win IMO.
Alessandro Volta appears to be the Number one choice according to the betting but is not necessarily the number one horse omn the day, as he has proven a few times this season.
I think with Washington Irving it’s not a case of not fancying him on my part I just think AOB will only run Alessandro Volta as first choice probably with Heffernan on Moonstone. Since the Irish Oaks that has looked to be the sure route for Moonstone injuries-pending.
On another note with Washington Irving, he did run a pretty poor normal race under Murtagh at Leopardstown last week albeit on heavy ground and that would slightly put me off if he did run. But saying that, and probably contradicting myself here, if AOB did decide to run Washington Irving as one of his top two for the St Leger it must mean he can get the trip and do himself justice over it.
If AOB has the contenders he will run as many as wants, he ran quite a few in the leger last year, and IMO Alessandro Volta is not a basket to throw all one’s eggs into, which I would imagine AOB and Murtagh are all to aware of by now.
You may be right though, I’d say it will all depend on what they are showing at home, but by the fact that AOB has run W I in what is effectively a leger trial and that the horse hasnt run a complete stinker in it, I would think he is still very much due to take his place, if he doesnt then I would imagine AOB has one that he thinks is nailed on for it, as usually the smaller the field he puts out the stronger his hand is IMO.
What’s your opinion on the likes of Unsung Heroine and Conduit on this one?
On the subject of WI, 28-1 in places at the moment which with a run wouldnt be a bad bet.
I can definitely see this being a smaller than anticipated field when it comes to Leger day though. Looking at the list of current entries I cant see many that I think will still be in come the next round of declarations
Dan
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