Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › St Leger 2008
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September 3, 2006 at 00:18 #8679
Thoughts after today? Paktai?
Is Look Here still “doubtful”? Still quite prominent in the betting. Very interested in her chances myself. Certainly seems bred to stay too
Im suprised Conduit remains as short as he does. That Goodwood run was very underwhelming and donegal didnt exactly boost the form next time
September 3, 2006 at 00:18 #2956why do the bookmakers have sixites icon as odd on favourite for the st leger. this horse should be 5/1 at the least nothing he has done warrants him being this short terrible value the worst for a very long time for any group 1 or classic
September 3, 2006 at 01:16 #76309Sixties Icon finished 5l behind Sir Percy in the Derby on only his third visit to a racecourse then was given too much to do next time at Ascot but still got within 2l of Papal Bull with Tam Lin (only loss to date) behind in 5th place, Youmzain (was fancied for the Leger but now doesn’t run) was last in that race, on his latest start at Goodwood he trounced Linas Selection in the manor of a rapidly improving horse and with the extra two furlongs he’ll get in the Leger likely to suit he has got to be a short priced favourite, now wether he’ll win or not is another story but I reckon he’s a worthy favourite.
September 3, 2006 at 11:19 #76310Favourite by default (justifiable given the defections), but poor value around Evens.
September 3, 2006 at 11:41 #76311<br>Newyork,
He’s available to lay at 2.1 on BF – nothing to stop you from backing up your opinion with hard cash. I’m sure there are plenty that will be happy to take any offer of 5/1.
If Sixties Icon is 5/1 on your tissue, presumably most of the others should be shorter – so which one is the big value?
September 3, 2006 at 12:16 #76312Obviously the wonder horse Ask, Alan ;)
September 3, 2006 at 13:29 #76313I think Sixties Icon is terrible value. A horse that hasn’t won at the trip and on breeding isn’t certain to get it, best form is on fast ground which he possibly won’t get either. Contrast him with last years favourite Scorpion and you see the difference. You could back Scorpion at roughly the same price yet Scorpion was a Group 1 winner already and had run Hurricane Run to a whisker in the Irish Derby. Sixties Icon doesn’t have credentials as strong as Scorpion did thats for sure.
It’s a wide open race its difficult to find a winner. Sixties Icon has a decent enough chance though ridiculously short in price, Red Rocks, Jadalee also have just as strong claims in my opinion and you can’t ignore the O’Brien horse Tusculum who at least has won at the trip. Championship Point has always shaped like a stayer and Mick Channon thinks the world of him, St Leger could be right up his street.
I wouldn’t like to pick one in particular I think practically anything could win this years race especially if the ground is on the soft side.
September 3, 2006 at 13:51 #76314I think Sixties Icon is terrible value. A horse that hasn’t won at the trip and on breeding isn’t certain to get it
<br>What horse HAS won at the trip? and that horse was beaten by who?
<br>lets forget odds for a moment and try and pick the winner regardless of odds
September 3, 2006 at 13:55 #76315What horse HAS won at the trip? and that horse was beaten by who?
<br>Jadalee beaten by Sixties Icon at Goodwood but over 12 furlongs not fourteen, Tusculum.
lets forget odds for a moment and try and pick the winner regardless of odds
Could be one of any number, I’d struggle to choose, I certainly won’t be having a bet. Token selection Red Rocks.
<br>(Edited by The Market Man at 2:57 pm on Sep. 3, 2006)<br>
(Edited by The Market Man at 2:58 pm on Sep. 3, 2006)
September 3, 2006 at 17:34 #76316Did I hear someone was offering me 5/1? Yes please :o
Its so short because so few horses will make it: think Linas Selection, Soapy Danger, Hala Bek, Sir Percy, Youmzain, Septimus, Darsi, Papal Bull etc
If any of the above had turned up it would not be odds on but as it is there a few horses that will cause Sixties Icon problems. Now about that 5/1…….
September 4, 2006 at 11:33 #76317One of the reasons for the short price has been the trainers strongly held view that SI will continue improving strongly throughout the season
Coming from someone as straightforward and capable as JN, that is pretty significant
September 4, 2006 at 15:10 #76318I am going to York on Saturday,and having looked at the race and really wanting to oppose Sixties Icon,I can’t find any reason why I will..
Red Rocks ran solid enough last time,and as someone has mentioned,he did indeed finish in front of Icon at Goodwood,but Icon,even at the price looks most progressive,he looks like he will enjoy the step up in trip,whereas others near the head of the market aren’t sure to appriciate any step up..<br>Frankie has opted for him,when one presumes he could have ridden Red Rocks(as he has in his last few races)
For the winner I can’t see past Icon,I’m not saying I think he’s value,but I wouldn’t want to lay him for too much(but what do I know,I’m a jumps man normally,my wife has asked me to take her racing,so off to York we go!!!
September 4, 2006 at 15:22 #76319I was at Goodwood when Sixties Icon was backed to beat Lina’s Selection and the result was never in doubt from 2 furlongs out.
Mind you, the reopposing runner up, Jadalee, took an absolute age to get going and was doing his best work at the finish.
It would, perhaps, be going too far to say the form will be overturned – Tregonings’ horse has but the one pace – but the March stakes winner will be better suited by the 1m 6f than he was by shorter.
At 8/1, Jadalee would be my bet to nothing E/W, assuming a drying week.
(And York is, imho, not the place to be getting stuck into 4/5 shots).
September 4, 2006 at 16:06 #76320Looks a very open race with the favourite the most likely winner but too short in the betting. Think Mountain will turn out to be the best of the Ballydoyle bunch. His Derrinstown Derby form is looking pretty smart now and he could well reproduce that on the likely easier going this weekend. Race could easily throw up a surprise and hard to be confident on any of them.
September 4, 2006 at 18:38 #76321I reckon Tusculum should be around 4/1 and SI is a 2/1 shot.
September 4, 2006 at 21:17 #76322AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 438
Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 4:22 pm on Sep. 4, 2006[br]At 8/1, Jadalee would be my bet to nothing E/W, assuming a drying week.<br>
<br>Agreed. He’s the one horse guaranteed to stay and York will be more his cup of tea than Goodwood. The only worry is the ground.
September 4, 2006 at 21:23 #76323Having backed Sixties Icon for the Derby at 500-1 a few days before the race (takes a bit of doing, especially with Bet Direct ) I find it hard to believe that just a few months later he’s odds-on for another Classic. Red Rocks is massive each-way value at 7-1. He was in front of Sixties Icon at Royal Ascot despite finding the ground faster than ideal and has not finished out of the first three since his racecourse debut.
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