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This race brings together all the top 3yo milers in Europe bar Lope De Vega. Makfi, Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs, Steinbeck and Siyouni all take the stage. The bookies have the principles priced up:
Canford Cliffs 11/8
Makfi 5/2
Steinbeck 6/1
Dick Turpin 8/1
Siyouni 8/1I think they’ve got it wrong this time, and can’t see why Makfi is not the fav. He won the 2000 Guineas coosily imo and although Canford Cliffs looked to have improved alot in the Irish 2000, until I see him beat Makfi I won’t believe he can. Steinbeck could cause a shock by reversing the form with Canford Cliffs, as I expect he’ll have come on a tonne for that. It really could go to any of the above, but I have Makfi down as the likeliest winner.
I think that bookies often take big talk from trainers at more value than racecourse performance. Viz, Hannon has been talking up "best-ever" storms about Canford Cliffs, while Delzangles is either a more demure fellow or his braggadocio just hasn’t been translated over from the French press, thus CC shorter than Makfi. Hannon has also talked down Dick Turpin in relation to CC (despite the former beater the latter with no excuses twice), thus CC shorter than DT.
From what I can tell, the bookies also favour pronouncements from certain trainers more than others. Workforce received so much ante-post hype after a simple maiden (impressive, but just a maiden) because of Stoute’s opinion. AOB’s talked-up horses always get very short in the market. On the other hand, an understated fellow like John Oxx who spoke of something special in his yard before last year’s 2000 Guineas was not given much attention (perhaps that will have changed since STS’s exploits).
I am not condemning the practice – clearly it often works, as evidenced in a case like Workforce. But we need to show our own judgment as well. So for me, Steinbeck’s participation says less about his trainer’s regard for him (AOB is not very discriminating in throwing horses at G1s) than Siyouni’s participation (ARD is a lot more discriminating in sending his horses to G1s outside of France). And Delzangles’ remarks on Makfi may not have the superlatives that Hannon has used for CC, but I agree with you, Makfi should be slightly favoured to win.
Intersting stuff, OleB, and very true. Yet Steinbeck, ven moreso than St Nicholas Abbey, was the hyped up 2yo. Things seem quieter about him this year now that the St Nicholas Abbey hype has taken over. I’d expect a very bold show from him. The other O’Brien horses, Beethoven and Fencing Master, are obviously smart but probably fall short of O’Brien’s best.
Canford Cliffs for me. The progression from Newmarket to The Curragh was incredible. He’s learnt how to settle now and IMO a completely different horse. I’ll be surprised if he comes off the bridle.
"Zarkava" wrote: Canford Cliffs for me. The progression from Newmarket to The Curragh was incredible. He’s learnt how to settle now and IMO a completely different horse. I’ll be surprised if he comes off the bridle.
Prepared to be surprised then Zark
He may well win but if he does so on the bridle then I will well and truely take my hat off to him! These are different animals to the trees he beat at the Curragh.
I can see
Dick Turpin
right up there from the off with Canford sitting motionless 10 lengths behind him,as they come off the bend with only 2f to run,Dick Turpin winds it up and steals a lead,he"s not stopping as Canford makes ground hand over fist but Ryan Moore has judged it to perfection and holds the runner-up by a neck!Makfi proves he was 100% tuned to the minute for the 2000gns and finishes 3rd a 11/2l behind with Steinbeck 4th! Reminds me of last years appraisal of the race with Mastercraftsman out battling Delegator!
Very interesting opinions. Fair enough about the favorites. Canford Cliffs didn’t really have any excuses at Newmarket other than hes inexperienced like all of the horses. Each learns different things at different stages.
Makfi has the upper hand but Canford Cliffs still massacred a classic field after learning a bit more about how to run. I personally couldn’t separate them and will no way be parting with any money in the race.
I think I heard something about Dick Turpin going for another race hence the drift in the market. Is that right?
BTW, I tend to pick a horse every generation…not for backing necessarily but just one I like. Last year it was Mastercraftsman…this year Dick Turpin. I hope he wins…in fact I think hes a great ew price – 2nd in two guineas with form franked twice!
I’m more interested in the 10/1 available about Siyouni.
You can put a line through his last run. Last season he beat Pounced, Buzzword, Lope De Vega, Dick Turpin and Beethoven to win the Lagadere after running Special Duty close in the Prix Robert Papin.
He’s the type to enjoy Ascot and, contrary to breeding, I think he will at his most effective on a quick surface.
The final post in the ‘Irish 2000 Guineas’ thread.
I’m glad I got the 10/1. Generally 7s now.
Noble’s Promise, anyone? What are his odds like over there? He did break his maiden on the turf (in a claimer at Ellis Park, no less). He’s from the same female family as Soaring Softly, Plenty of Grace, New Economy, etc., and his running style could pose a challenge to the rest of the field.
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On a line through Xtension, Makfi has 2.5l to find on Canford Cliffs, and given that Xtension is a consistent horse that’s never run a bad race in his life, I’d say that’s about right.
"reet hard" wrote: On a line through Xtension, Makfi has 2.5l to find on Canford Cliffs, and given that Xtension is a consistent horse that’s never run a bad race in his life, I’d say that’s about right.
So you’d have Free Judgement pretty much on a par with Makfi then?
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Who knows, thm, but this is what Free Judgement’s trainer said after the Irish 2,000;
"I thought our horse had a good chance of finishing in the first three, so I’m pleased with his performance. However, I don’t see much point in taking on the winner again,"
Noble’s Promise, anyone? What are his odds like over there? He did break his maiden on the turf (in a claimer at Ellis Park, no less). He’s from the same female family as Soaring Softly, Plenty of Grace, New Economy, etc., and his running style could pose a challenge to the rest of the field.
Sixth in the betting at 14-1 / 16-1.
He’s not without his supporters. A studio guest on attheraces (I forget his name – normally on World of Racing) put in a very good word for him.
Bookies will not take too many chances with the American challengers after the success they enjoyed last year.
Kenny McPeek sent over Hard Buck to finish runner-up in the King George in 2004 – you get the feeling he has waited for the right horse to come along before having a crack at another of our top prizes.
Connections apparantly swerved the Belmont for Ascot and they insist he didn’t exactly enjoy a smooth preperation before the Kentucky Derby.
He won’t be disgraced.
On his best form Free Judgement was entitled to have place prospects, but to say he would have beaten Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs in the English 2000 Guineas I just can’t have. We’ll never know I suppose!
I remember Shamardal winning the poulains (as did Lope De Vega) then he won the Prix Jockey Club (as did Lope De Vega), then won the St James Palace (may be mistaken but think that was the year it was in york and there was a loose surface on what was described as fast ground). Not sure ascot would suit Lope De Vega if the ground was quicker, but think theres enough horses to chose from forthis to be a good solid race. Still dont think we’ve seen the best of some of the beaten horses from the guineas…and where i love mafki, ascot is different to newmarket…
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I’ve picked out the good to firm ground form through the runners because its highly likely we’ll get it, the odds table i’ve done are based on the speed ratings and attempt to find some value but I am open to critisism as its not my strongest point.
ST JAMES PALACE STAKES
History
99.60 Mastercraftsman (2009) (3.06/Good to Firm)
102.32 Henrythenavigator (2008) (5.38/Hard)
89.22 Excellent Art (2007) (5.38/Hard)
98.54 Araafa (2006) (2.86/Good to Firm)
100.05 Azamour (2004) (3.17/Firm)
96.39 Zafeen (2003) (2.90/Good to Firm)
98.84 Rock Of Gibraltar (2002) (1.49/Good)
97.44 Black Minnaloushe (2001) (1.23/Good)
98.07 Giant´s Causeway (2000) (1.23/Good)
94.92 Sendawar (1999) (2.63/Firm)Average: 97.54
Median: 98.31
Average: 97.92CONTENDERS
ARCANO
(94.60)
89.37 Newbury 7 furlongs (2.77/Good to Firm)
97.96 Deauville 6 furlongs (3.86/Firm)
95.06 Newmarket 6 furlongs (2.53/Good to Firm)
A top class 2 year old with some serious figures making him a real contender for the 2000 Guineas although it all went wrong in his trial at Newbury were he couldn’t deal with the increase in tempo which was worrying as he finished his races over 6f well last year. The trainer Brian Meehan wouldn’t be my favourite in preparing a horse for a Classic so his run at Newbury came as no surprise and I expect Brian has used the 50+ day break in getting this horse right were the owner really thought he had a decent contender for the top races and the pressures off as no one is really talking about Arcano which is dangerous.BEETHOVEN
(91.00)
97.41 Newmarket 7 furlongs (2.11/Good to Firm)
84.59 Leopardstown 6 furlongs (2.35/Good to Firm)
This will be a very tough ask for Beethoven but he is a very battle hardened horse who was on the go from May to November and it will be interesting to see his developments at 3. The horse may be used to force a real solid pace but don’t get it wrong he’s the sort of horse who wouldn’t be out there too make up the numbers and would be ridden with every chance.CANFORD CLIFFS
(96.09)
98.00 Curragh 8 furlongs (2.23/Good to Firm)
95.02 Newmarket 8 furlongs (1.98/Good to Firm)
96.37 Newbury 7 furlongs (2.77/Good to Firm)
96.96 Deauville 6 furlongs (3.86/Firm)
92.68 Ascot 6 furlongs (3.06/Good to Firm)
A top class 3 year old who’s going to be returning to the track where he stamped his mark as one of the best 2 year olds around and has since gone on to crush the doubters who said he wouldn’t stay a mile, he’s got a searing change of gear and it’s something you’ll need coming wide at Ascot as the rail can be a dangerous route but he sets a real high standard – I’ll fancy him again against Makfi with Richard Hughes now holding the key to him.DICK TURPIN
(94.81)
94.10 Longchamp 8 furlongs (3.73/Firm)
95.47 Newmarket 8 furlongs (1.98/Good to Firm)
97.37 Newbury 7 furlongs (2.77/Good to Firm)
92.41 Newmarket 7 furlongs (2.11/Good to Firm)
It’s going to be fascinating to see Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs reunite with his recent run at Longchamp being a real high class performance only 2nd to Lope De Vega who has gone on to win the French Derby, he’s got blinding speed but I can see him getting caught out by a classier rival again although he’s so game and will give you a run for your money.ENCOMPASSING
(80.91)
67.00 Curragh 8 furlongs (2.23/Good to Firm)
94.82 Navan 8 furlongs (6.30/Hard)
Encompassing ran a big time behind Shintoh at Navan were the eventual winner ran well behind Jan Vermeer next time out despite being outclassed, his role as pacemaker in the 2000 Guineas at the Curragh was always going to rule him out with a chance of winning but he remains an unknown quantity who was good enough to fly the flag in the Dee Stakes, I don’t think he’ll run but it’ll be interesting season for him this year especially in Ireland were he should be able to land Listed/Group race.FENCING MASTER
(92.06)
85.00 Curragh 8 furlongs (2.23/Good to Firm)
92.47 Newmarket 8 furlongs (1.98/Good to Firm)
97.41 Newmarket 7 furlongs (2.11/Good to Firm)
He looked to be a real star running 2nd in the Dewhurst from a Maiden win at Dundalk but has gone backwards ever since and I just can’t have him.FREE JUDGEMENT
(93.21)
95.00 Curragh 8 furlongs (2.23/Good to Firm)
91.41 Newmarket 7 furlongs (2.11/Good to Firm)
Free Judgement has really come to fruition this year for Jim Bolger and has looked to relish the quicker conditions; he ran a blinder in the Irish 2000 Guineas but the trainer has stated he wouldn’t like to take on the winner again which in truth he has a point and would be a expensive exercise for the owners.MAKFI
(96.47)
96.47 Newmarket 8 furlongs (1.98/Good to Firm)
The French horse that shocked us all at the 2000 Guineas has ever reason to be favourite here but I am just wondering how he’ll be going around right handed and his jockey Christophe Lemaire is 1-24 at Ascot in the last 5 years which given he’s given decent rides when coming over is quite a bad return and with Richard Hughes admitting he could have got Canford Cliffs alight sooner in the 2000 Guineas I am willing to let Makfi go those braver backers than me .NOBLES PROMISE (-)
POETS VOICE
(89.08)
86.10 Longchamp 8 furlongs (3.73/Firm)
93.85 Newmarket 6 furlongs (2.96/Good to Firm)
88.73 Doncaster 7 furlongs (4.02/Firm)
88.84 York 7 furlongs (4.13/Firm)
His seasonal return at Longchamp was a positive one finishing a respectable 8th and he’ll improve for that but I have questions about his temperament as he’s very head strong and I don’t believe he’s settled over the winter where he has a lot to find with Dick Turpin on ratings to even get involved in the honours.SHAKESPEAREAN
(86.05)
89.53 Epsom 7 furlongs (3.27/Firm)
82.98 Sandown 7 furlongs (2.34/Good to Firm)
85.76 Newmarket 7 furlongs (3.43/Firm)
A real cosy winner at Epsom last Friday but I do have my reservations about him on this ground and I think he’ll be much more effective with a bit of cut, he has a lot to find on ratings but looks a slow improver and should be better with age.SIYOUNI
(86.72)
86.10 Longchamp 8 furlongs (3.73/Firm)
86.18 Longchamp 8 furlongs (1.82/Good to Firm)
89.48 Longchamp 7 furlongs (4.38/Hard)
Another horse who looks like having a preferences for a bit of cut and Siyouni has failed to improve over the winter with two runs that have produced exact replicas of his 2 year old ratings which I am afraid he’s just be surpassed by better horses now, I do think he’ll have better chances when stepped up to 10 furlongs on softer ground in his own country.STEINBECK
(91.35)
93.00 Curragh 8 furlongs (2.23/Good to Firm)
96.41 Newmarket 7 furlongs (2.11/Good to Firm)
79.90 Naas 6 furlongs (4.08/Hard)
Steinbeck is a real looker, the horse who showed massive improvement from his Maiden win to 4th in the Dewhurst and ran a superb race in defeat in the Irish 2000 Guineas, he was travelling comfortably alongside the eventual winner 2 out before soon coming off the bridle were you could argue it was a lack of acceleration, the lack of race fitness or both. He could potentially be a dangerous outsider depending on how well he comes on for the run but there’s always that doubt in my mind that he was truly beaten by a decent turn of foot from Canford Cliffs over 8f which would make it hard to repose the latter, he could be a decent Irish Champion contender though.VISCOUNT NELSON
(88.57)
93.00 Curragh 8 furlongs (2.23/Good to Firm)
87.47 Newmarket 8 furlongs (1.98/Good to Firm)
87.73 Doncaster 7 furlongs (4.02/Firm)
Another Aidan O’Brien horse well covered by Canford Cliffs and a lot will depend on whether he turns up or not, if he didn’t it would be hard to see Viscount Nelson being one to take advantage of this – regardless he’s a game horse who’ll appreciate further and would be hard to see him running here.ODDS
9-4 Makfi
3-1 Canford Cliffs
14-1 Dick Turpin
16-1 Arcano
16-1 Noble Promise
16-1 Free Judgement
20-1 Fencing Master
20-1 Steinbeck
33-1 Beethoven
33-1 Poet’s Voice
40-1 Viscount Nelson
40-1 Siyouni
66-1 Shakespearean
100-1 EncompassingTABLE
1st Makfi 96.47
2nd Canford Cliffs 96.09
3rd Dick Turpin 94.81
4th Arcano 94.60
5th Free Judgement 93.21
6th Fencing Master 92.06
7th Steinbeck 91.35
8th Beethoven 91.00
9th Poet’s Voice 89.08
10th Viscount Nelson 88.57
11th Siyouni 86.72
12th Shakespearean 86.05
13th Encompassing 80.91
14th Noble Promise –SELECTION
Siyouni – LAY @ 9.6
Arcano – EW @ 33-1 (Corals)
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