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Betlarge
I don’t know about cricket, Golf, etc but footie analysis is highly stats based, so is the NFL
There are guys out there using Monte Carlo simulations, poisson distributon analysis to compile oddslines
Just wish i were intelligent enough to do the same
DJ
The majority( bar the odd one or two) of footie stats websites are useless tbh because they don’t carry the right info, you need comprehensive stats of every game, not just how many goals FA at home and away, how many corners, how many fouls commited
I wanted possession stats for footie, couldn’t get em anywhere except from OPTA, who cost a bomb and i was not willing to pay
<br> if you can attract these kind of people who are using this type of analysis to write, give their analysis you probably would have some of the best sports article writers in the country, in the same way the Sportsman had some of the best horse racing writers/analyst imo
<br>Certainly worth a quid imo
(Edited by empty wallet at 4:03 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)
The NFL interests me as a betting medium.
<br> the guy who was doing the NFL for the Sportsman wrote some interesting stuff imo and I would have liked to have learnt more about his approach, but it folded before the NFL season had really got going
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from empty wallet on 2:58 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br]<br>Like the last 3 runs of horse won’t tell you the "true" ability, the last 3 wins by Chelsea won’t tell you their "true" chance against West Ham
EW<br>I am intrigued as to how else you would gauge their "true" ability or "true" chance?<br> Personally, I would think that the last 3 runs, or the last 3 games, would have more influence on their prices than all the stats in the world!
I’m not sure if this is what EW means, but I have said before that crude measurements of outcome – and win/lose/draw is certainly crude – can give a very misleading impression of what actually went on.
In much the same way that you need to interpret the result of a horserace (such as beyond the obvious "a horse won, or it didn’t" ), you need to interpret the result of sporting events.
Where football – which is a low-scoring game – is concerned, you need to do this to a very large degree.
Although winning a game is the object of the exercise – and over a course of a season to a large degree "the table doesn’t lie" – in individual instances there must be much better ways of measuring the performances of teams than just whether they won or not.
(Edited by Prufrock at 10:51 pm on Oct. 10, 2006)
Of course recent "good" form has an influence on price, but that doesn’t mean it represents the "true" chance of either horse, football team , or whatever winning. does it?
Quote: from Prufrock on 10:51 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br] I have said before that crude measurements of outcome – and win/lose/draw is certainly crude – can give a very misleading impression of what actually went on.
<br>Exactly
<br>Good post btw
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from empty wallet on 11:04 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br]
Quote: from Prufrock on 10:51 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br] I have said before that crude measurements of outcome – and win/lose/draw is certainly crude – can give a very misleading impression of what actually went on.
<br>Exactly
<br>Good post btw
So stats aren’t crude then, but reading and understanding recent form is????
Depends what you mean by both "stats" and "recent form".
If you judge how well a horse has run by, for instance, whether it won or not, that is a crude measurement in most instances. If you judge how well a football team has performed by, for instance, whether it won or not, that is also a crude measurement.
If you dig deeper – such as considering how well a horse has run compared to how well it could be expected to run or how well a football team has perfomed in terms other than just the result – then recent form is certainly significant. Just perhaps not quite as significant as some seem to think it is.
reet
<br>Using statistical analysis will shed more light on a sports result than any bare (win/draw/loss) form result will ever do
Do you know the Goal Average of Chelsea home and Away, do you know whether that average rises against Mid table teams or against bottom table team
How do Chelsea do when a certain defender is rested, does their Goals against average rise when he’s missing
<br>Stats will tell you all of this and more
<br>
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from empty wallet on 12:07 am on Oct. 11, 2006[br]reet
<br>Using statistical analysis will shed more light on a sports result than any bare (win/draw/loss) form  result will ever do
Do you know the Goal Average of Chelsea home and Away, do you know whether that average rises against Mid table teams or against bottom table team
How do Chelsea do when a certain defender is rested, does their Goals against average rise when he’s missing
<br>Stats will tell you all  of this and more
<br>
Then how come most matches are priced up days before the teams are even known?
<br> We aren’t talking ‘crude measurements’ or ‘bare results’ here either, but aiming to establish "true" ability or "true" chance.<br> As a for instance, Contact Dancer, former winner of the Cearewitch and running of a lower mark on Saturday, is currently trading at 25/1; Detroit City, yet to even see a handicap of this class, let alone win one, is trading at a fraction of that price. Both prices, I would suggest, have far more to do with their recent form than any stats.
I would just like to make a point regarding lekha85.At the moment you have posted here 25 times -most of them whinging about how hard it is to break into racing.You have also said you are a relative newcomer to racing.Why would anyone want to pay to read your opinions.Its not as if you have given any great insights or analysis here.
Personal opinion obviously comes into it.For example if you were to report on the Arc what would the angle be 1)the obvious Rail Link win 2)the amazing Japanese gamble on Deep Impact or 3)the anti climactic nature of the event.
That would totally depend on the publication you a writing for and the brief the editir has given you.
David has outlined my thoughts on that point but I do believe that a certain level of insight is required by a journalist of any subject. Whenever I have been given a story to cover I work hard to make sure I can find out about it from every angle and know every twist and turn, every tiny detail, associated with the story. <br>No journalist, whatever age or experience, can know everything about racing and the key to it is as much in the research as in the writing.
And further to myself being inexperienced in the racing world, I’m not sure how much experience I can be expected to have at the age of 21. There’s a reason why I went on the BHB course and that was to learn…I have now done that.<br>However, I may well have been involved in racing and horses in a far wider variety of ways than some journalists, as a rider, a horse trainer (altho not specifically training racehorses the understanding of the equine being is the same) and as a groom at the races.
Finally, I’m still not quite sure why everyone decided to attack me simply because I stated the straight fact that there are now fewer jobs in racing journalism since the Sportsman closed it’s doors. <br>I am not whingeing or complaining about that-it is just a fact. It is not something that anyone can help or change and the likes of Mesh and I will have to deal with it, which we are trying to do to our best ability.
(Edited by lekha85 at 1:36 pm on Oct. 11, 2006)
The majority of journalism is about reporting and not personal opinion.
But it’s also about insight and analysis i.e. the ability to see deeply into a subject you are reporting on, particularly if you’re working within a specialist subject.
This is one of the reasons I can’t be bothered with Persad as an interviewer.
I don’t think he understands the sport at the level where he can ask the sort of questions that lead to answers that are truly informative.
Balding, on the other hand, who has has been around the sport longer than Rishi has been alive, asks questions that, when answered, tend to leave you better informed about the horses/races etc.
Steve
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