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Does anybody else out there produce their own speed / handicap ratings, or does everyone follow the usual methods of collateral form ?
I find my speed ratings help me a lot to narrow down my selections in a race.
I don’t always find the winner but I find that my ratings are a great help.
By not following the herd I think I might have an advantage.
Does anyone have any thoughts ?Yeah, I do my own speed ratings for the all weather……I;ve got about 3 years worth stored now on the RP My ratings feature
Can’t imagine studying a race on the AW without them, though I seem to manage OK without them on turf and over the junps !
I produce my own ratings on the flat covering Britain, Ireland, France and now Meydan (UAE).
Mine are worked out in a similar way to "Top Speed", and I use my own lbs. per length calculations which takes into consideration, the different track variations.
I use Timeform so I suppose you could say I use speed figures. Often look at their "timefigures" and even their Timeform rating can be based on time (only can be). But for me speed ratings are used in conjunction with conventional form.
How is wind speed and direction taken in to account?
Obviously a strong headwind slows them down, where as a tailwind will give a faster time and possibly even course records. But as far as times go, everything depends on how strong and exactly what direction it is coming from. is this information available and if so how is it taken in to account?How is pace in the race taken in to account?
Speed ratings are surely not the thing to look at when the race you’re studying for is probably going to be slowly run? Good speed ratings only come in truly or strongly run races. Top rated horses in pure speed ratings may well need truly/strongly run races to show their best.How do you allow for ground conditions? One day of good-firm is often not the same as another days good-firm, even on the same course. That’s if the going report is correct (good luck to you at Haydock).
Without doubt speed ratings can be used to good effect.
Respect to anyone successful at doing their own.
Value Is EverythingRegarding ‘pace in the race’
As i said earlier I now have 3 years worth of ratings stored and I use them to look for patterns in performance
So, for example, if I think it’s going to be a slow run race I pay attention to horses that only win when the race has low speed figs…. ie they only win slow races.
I might rule them out in say a big field handicap even if they’ve scored big figs in defeat
I don’t use speed figs as an alternative to the normal form study – I use them as an additional tool to supplement form study and put previous runs in some kind of context
It’s a useful ‘ruling out’ tool………for example if I have a horse who’s run 10 times on the AW and never recorded a speed fig over 60 and now he’s up against horses who have several 70s or 80s on their past performances….I’d probably oppose him even if he’s won his last 3 races by half a dozen lengths and is an odds on fave.
I treat each race as a unique puzzle and speed figs are a useful tool amongst others for working the puzzle out
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