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Could be nothing, and its generally not a race I usually play in but couldnt help but notice that Admire Du Lia in the 415 at Ayr, despite not being the most consistent of horses, has won this race the last two years and is down 16lbs in the ratings and being backed. Has also knocked up wins at this time of year 5 out of the 6 years. Getting on a bit now…
Currently 12-1 with william hills.
Worth a look
Though like you said its not shown much recently it does seems to like this course/race.
Also the fact its got the beating of Trisons Star too ( and Trison is worse off in the weights today ) which is 3rd in the betting you might have found a good each way bet here mate.
It will have to be 100 percent on the game today , however , to get the beating of NELLIEDONETHAT , but it may pay to do the forecast with the just mentioned ance.d worth an each way bet at a price.
Good luck with that and thankyou for sharing
I can understand Bulwark’s reasoning on this one. Almire Du Lia hasn’t exactly seemed full of life recently, but if ever he was going to recover his form Ayr in the mud would seem the most likely place.
Skenfrith is another who should be suited by course and conditions. He has two ways of running, go and stop, but an overall record of 6 from 46 isn’t bad and he’s often worth having in the book to a small stake. He popped up in Jan ’08 at Kelso following a run similar to his recent form.
Nellidonethat is definitely going the right way although he beat precious little at Newcastle, I wouldn’t take the proximity of regular loser Mr Twins as a good sign.
Panama At Once’s form look as sound as any, but too races in tough conditions recently might just take their toll.
Something Silver has some fair form but might struggle to see out the trip.
Trison’s Star seems on the downgrade.
Small stakes at fancy odds, Almire Du Lia and Skenfrith would be my preference.
Am a bit worried about Admire Du Lia as the results at Ayr have been looking like good ground results, am also going to have a speculative go on Benbeoch @ 28-1 in the hope he’ll go on good ground. He was second to admire du lia in this race last year.
Thanks mate – had nice each way bet on that – nifty each way yeessssss
I had it at 10-1 !!
I had the forecast – but that went own with Nelliedownthat
Thanks mateCheers folks, something else which may be worth a try today IMO.
At warwick today the going description is soft. However as with most of the going descriptions of late I wouldnt place too much stock in the accuracy of that, but here could be something worth looking into.
In the opener there are a couple of soft ground specialists, namely Clay Hollister and James Du Vassy. Clay Holister is by no means guaranteed to get the trip but should act on the ground, james du vassy should handle ground and get the trip. I’m not suggesting to back either, because, as was the case with James Du Vassy this time last week, he was put out on soft at sandown, it definitely wasn’t soft, he didn’t act and never got into the race. What is worth doing though is watching how both horses act on the ground and perform in their races, as it could throw up a decent little opportunity later in the day, which is thus.
In the 330 Kayf Aramis is the favorite, however I strongly believe he is a heavy ground specialist, high in the weights and I dont expect him to win today.
Then there is Tisfeetdream who is progressive, has McCoy onboard and has decent form coming into the race and if the ground is soft (or even the worse side of good to soft) then,as the second fav he is the most likely winner of the race.
However if the ground appears to be good then it could be worth taking a chance on the thrid horse haldibari, he should be a good ground specialist on breeding and looks it on form, he should get the trip, he is a young hosre trying out this trip, whiich he should love for the first time so open to plenty of progress, has a decent enough jockey and is very well in the weights with Tisfeetdream for a defeat earlier in the season.
So my advice is thus, if James Du Vassy and Clay Hollister fail to act in the opener at Warwick (meaning its probably on the better side of good-soft) then Haldibari is a rock solid e/w shout in the 330. If they do act then for the short price backers, you could do much worse than Tisfeetdream as a decent bet for the day.
Good Luck
Woud appear to genuinely be soft ground so Tisfeetdream would be the pick.
Think I’ll also have a go on Le Broquy 6-1 and Kings Appostle 100-1 in the 220 at warwick.
Dreadful, Kayf Aramis just ran Tisfreetdream out of it, theres plenty of cut in the ground.
Kempton 415
The Hairy Lemon won this race last year, and is back down to the rating he won off, carrying the same 11-12 he won with last year and on the same conditions he won on, seems to have his best form at around 2m4f on good ground and would appear to have everything in his favour for another good run. Randwick Roar who was 2nd last year is 3lbs worse off with him this time around. The favorite pop ahead looks the obvious danger but could probably do with gd-sft to show his best level of form.
The Hairy Lemon – currently 12-1 and looks worth an e/w shout in a 9 runner field.
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