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Those that were backing it from 14’s into 5/2 weren’t too worried about his inconsistent profile it seems.
Inconsistency can be a plus though David. An inconsistent type may be more likely than a normal horse to return to form after a/some poor run/s. Also, a stable might know why a difficult to train horse ran poorly and be confident it’s recovered.
Value Is EverythingI am willing to consider all the explanations given for the the incredible performance improvement that has been provided.
However , I ask you this, an animal that is supposedly unreliable / has fitness problems etc., totally unfancied previously , only beat a few home in four runs. Would you lump on enough to bring it in from 14s to 5/2, unless you knew something ?
It amazes me that generally in these cases where incredible improvement occurs after dropping down the handicap, there is absolutely no indication that this is about to occur, before it does and the money is down.
I admire the skill in doing it, but wonder why the people who criticise the likes of Mr Curley, see instances such as this in a different light?
I am still cynical about handicap racing and the manipulation of the punter by running over inappropriate trips, going etc to get a favourable mark.
The apologists will gradually kill the interest among the general publicThe apologists will gradually kill the interest among the general public
Yeah & the doom sayers won’t I suppose.
Where’s that course in Ireland that has the Yellow Sam race?
I am willing to consider all the explanations given for the the incredible performance improvement that has been provided.
However , I ask you this, an animal that is supposedly unreliable / has fitness problems etc., totally unfancied previously , only beat a few home in four runs. Would you lump on enough to bring it in from 14s to 5/2, unless you knew something ?
It amazes me that generally in these cases where incredible improvement occurs after dropping down the handicap, there is absolutely no indication that this is about to occur, before it does and the money is down.
I admire the skill in doing it, but wonder why the people who criticise the likes of Mr Curley, see instances such as this in a different light?
I am still cynical about handicap racing and the manipulation of the punter by running over inappropriate trips, going etc to get a favourable mark.
The apologists will gradually kill the interest among the general publicCoggy,
There are many reasons why a horse can be inconsistent. One is that he/she is difficult to get right for whatever reason. May be Aldermoor does not run well unless in A1 condition. Some horses will only be in this state of physical excellence for a short space of time each year. Others might be easy to keep on top condition. Let’s say Aldermoor is the former.It is interesting that of his 24 runs which have come all year round; he’s won 4 times. Apart from his first ever start the other 3 have all come between September 1st and October 3rd. So Aldermoor probably comes to hand this time of year.
Some trainers are better at certain times of the year, having their string in better shape (not on purpose just how it happens). Williams best or equal best monthly winner totals in the past three years 08, 09, and 10 have all been in September.
Added to that, you can often see when looking at a horse’s coat in the paddock whether it is in top condition. Shiny and dapples on coat rather than dull or "woolly". Of course connections can see his coat at home and know before anyone else, getting on earlier and shortening the price. Before on course paddock experts.
Then there’s the fact it was a Kempton gaff meeting. Grade 5/6 stuff produce infinitely less wagered than a Saturday / bigger race. Therefore, with a few big bets the percentage of over all race money taken on this one horse is comparitively massive considering its price. Bookmakers want to produce an even book so to do so (in a small race with big money for one horse) they need to slash the price dramatically. A similar amount of money wagered on a horse in a big race would probably produce a fraction of the shortening in price, because the percentage of cash taken would not be anywhere near as great.
Then there’s the fact it is a Stuart Williams horse, with all the supposed Veitch hype. Many punters want to be on anything they see as being backed from this stable. So reducing the price still further. Something which also explains the price on betfair.
5/2 probably did not represent the true chance of winning (before the race) with many people only backing it because it was being backed. Although it was probably quite a bit better than 14/1 represents.
Value Is EverythingBest gamble i saw was Brabazon was 50/1 in morning was off track for 2years i think. went off 11/4fav and won easy you guys remember this last year.
Perhaps those providing the ‘plausible ‘ reasons for this win could price them all up in a lighthearted Market … 50/1 improved for the track … 33/1 reached a winning Mark etc And no offers they’ve had it right off with a non jigger !! What do you all honestly think the chances are that any of the reasons given here are the real explanation ?? If it was 4/6 non jigger 11/8 genuine improver , where would your money be gentlemen ?
Similar case to Aldermoor with The Strig at Folkestone today in the 2.50. Maiden winner as a 3-y-o and runner-up in Newmarket handicap off mark of 75. Been in the doldrums since. Run poorly all 3 starts this year but is, perhaps significantly today, back from a break and down significantly in class.
Would be a 16’s chance on his form this year, a 6/4 chance on his best form from last year. Surely the one price he can’t start is his current 9/2. Any of those that found the Aldermoor gamble so easy to explain after the event fancy suggesting which way this will go?
Looks worth a bet to me, but this is the trouble, it has to be some sort of a guess. Reading the form is easy, the mindsight of connections not so much.
Just looked at the 2.50 and unless you had some information regarding one of the runners chances, I can see no reason why you would even contemplate getting involved in the contest. Generally inconsistent and decidedly moderate horses tend to give generally inconsistent and decidedly moderate returns.
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Significant drop in OR, trip & class, and a plum draw for a front runner, all point to today being the day DJ, though I could think of safer pursuits than second-guessing this particular operation.
I can think of a few reasons to be optimistic about The Strig’s chances, viz;
1) A career-low mark of 59,
2) A first ever drop to 0-60 company,
3) Discarding of the visor in which he did rather too much at Newmarket last time,
4) This being a first attempt back over a sharp 5f since his Kempton maiden win in early 2010, and only a third race ever granted any such assignment (the other being one more Kempton maiden which is safest ignored, having blown the start and suffered interference later on).
As things stand, though, I’m not sure whether I’d take a short price about him any more than I would have about Aldermoor (and for the avoidance of doubt, it was discussing the plausibility of the win for that animal that interested me more than the SP; ditto here). The Strig has only ever won making all, and the front-running Cloth Ears may well be a spoiler to any such intentions here.
Every danger of a destructive early battle ensuing, then, so maybe a sensible approach would be a back-to-lay on The Strig, checking out as soon as it becomes apparent that he’s not going to get a soft one out in front.
A back-to-lay might be the way to go on Avonvalley, too, given that she has never yet successfully defied a slow start over 5f, and needed rousting along pretty early on at Nottingham last time. That she ran on into second there owed a deal, I think, to the galloping track, but I fear even fewer of them will be coming back to her over this quicker five if she does the same again.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
- Total Posts 17716
Dropping in price (11/4 best) as we speak – but whose money is it, that is the question?
A back-to-lay might be the way to go on Avonvalley, too, given that she has never yet successfully defied a slow start over 5f, and needed rousting along pretty early on at Nottingham last time.
If she misses the break and is soon pushed along in rear, won’t her odds trade higher in-running than pre-race, making her more of a lay-to-back?
If she misses the break and is soon pushed along in rear, won’t her odds trade higher in-running than pre-race, making her more of a lay-to-back?
Or that, even. Yep, sorry, said one thing and meant another.
Pratfalls of thundering out posts covertly!gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
Ironically The Strig was beaten into second place by one who was taking advantage of a low turf mark and the chance in a much easier class.
The Strig will probably manage to pick up a lousy event somewhere, but evidence suggests he does need to be able to dominate even in 0-60 class.
Rob
I’m wondering whether a return to the all weather track might suit him. It was also interesting that Hugh Taylor who I respect very much as a tipster and who works in very much the same way as Pricewise, tipped him as one of his two bets of the day on the ATR site.
Doesn’t your second sentence contradict your first Rob? Wither The Strig finished second because he couldn’t dominate or because he was beaten by a better handicapped class dropper than he himself. Can’t have it both ways.
The fact that the winner got an ideal tow and a gap on the rail shouldn’t be underestimated imo. Mingun Bell also bouncing back with a similarly good position in the following race.
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