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Silverblazetips,
Keeping the draw on your side is quite a good strategy. You are usually laying around evens, so need to be right most of the time to make money. A small steady profit is the aim – i think you were on course over the weekend.
I always prefer to lay the opposition where the team with the higher rating is under 30pts clear AND they are at value odds on my table.
Do you use any particular formula, or just take the ratings from the odds page in the RFO?
Plenty of midweek fixtures to search for possible value bets. I can’t work out any ratings until the RFO comes out tomorrow, so won’t be able to post any recommended bets until late afternoon.
Of the midweek fixtures in the Premiership and Championship, only one recommended bet using the ratings formula as a guide.
Preston(+58) to beat Notts Forest, 30pts @ 6/4 (Stan James) Notts For won 2-0
Wigan(+61) to win at Coventry was a borderline decision, but I decided against it.  <br> Wigan won 2-1
A loss of 30pts. The bank now stands at 1,185 pts(185pts profit)
(Edited by Artemis at 9:13 am on Feb. 24, 2005)
Artemis, i have looked at the index figures since they were started and they definetly give an edge, on Scottish games when there is a 100 point difference it is worth looking out for.
phunter, I don’t normally do the Scottish leagues, except when they are on the pools coupons, so I haven’t really studied them.
This weekend, I have short-listed the following teams as being value bets according to the ratings formula:
Ratings odds odds available<br>Birmingham (+28) 5/4 7/4
Derby(+67) 4/5 11/8
Crewe (+42) 6/5 12/5?
Leicester (+17) 11/8 5/2
Bolton (+3) 13/8 3/1
I’ll be having a look at Betfair tomorrow before deciding on bets.
It’s interesting doing the sums, and beginning to get a feel for it.
<br>Your formula is magnifying the effect of the ‘trend’ on the overall ratings. Do we know how this ‘trend’ figure is compiled? (eg over what timescale?). If the forumla does have a long-term edge that would appear to be what it would be.
Artemis,
I missed replying to your Wednesday matches on which I was going to point out to be wary of betting against Nottingham Forest (not Notts please) at the moment because they are in a must win position and have a new manager (at last) who knows the ropes in the Championship. They have sold on their 2 best players, who to be honest weren’t playing to their potential as they wanted away, and are now getting together a side to get them out of trouble.
It’s these sort of thinks that you can’t add to ratings and whilst you can find the info on the web it takes quite a bit of time.
With regard to your Derby rating and bet consideration I would give the match a big swerve. It is a big local derby (27,000 crowd) and Forest as desperate for points. The match could easily end 3-0 to either side but picking which one is a lottery.
Keep up the good work,
Des
Des, this goes back to my x-factor theory.<br>I feel it is very important to use the ratings in tandem with other vital factors.<br>Eg, injuries, and as you say, must win situations for some teams. These factors (along with others) outweigh the ratings on many occasions.
Kevin Pullein has done some studies of "must win" games. Each time he’s shown that overall the results are no different from what would have been expected without the "must win" factor.
I’d expect these ratings to perform particularly well in such matches from now until the end of the season.
Another couple of studies I’ve seen suggest Derbies have slightly skewed results – with the home side slightly underperforming (to the benefit of the draw if I remember rightly).
Both of which gives succour to Derby’s rating!!
<br>Chaaaarge….!
I have a great deal of respect for Kevin Pullein, who has shown by his research that long term trends are more relevant than special factors that often skew prices.
I take on board what aston and des have said about the value of local/up to date information, but I’m taking a long term view and seeing how this ratings formula performs.
The formula certainly does magnify the impact of the Trend figure, which can range from -20 to +20. In the formula, the Trend figure is multiplied by 5 and divided by 2, so it can have a significant effect. The Trend figure changes gradually from game to game and is a very good indicator of recent form. I’m not sure exactly how Alex compiles the figures, but weekly changes to ratings are usually no more than a few points. I imagine it would take about 6 weeks to reverse a trend of -10 to +10. I’m sure Alex has dealt with this in the RFO over the past year, but my recall of the details is not reliable. The main thing is to trust the figures until it is proved they are not to be trusted.
In this week’s RFO, Alex does discuss the difficulties of finding a successful formula and concludes that it is probably a pipe dream.
Anyhow, this weekend’s recommended bets:
LAY Crystal Palace to lose 50pts @2.86 Betfair<br>Palace won 2-0     -50pts
LAY Newcastle to lose 50pts @2.02 Betfair<br> Newcastle won 2-1 -50pts
BACK Derby to win 30pts@2.78 Betfair<br>  Draw 2-2      -30pts
BACK Crewe to win 20pts@3.65 Betfair<br>  lost 3-0       -20pts
Leicester to win,  20pts@5/2(Bet Direct, Skybet)    <br>  Draw 0-0      -20pts
<br>A loss over the weekend of 170pts. The bank now stands at 1,015pts(15pts profit)
(Edited by Artemis at 10:40 am on Feb. 27, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:09 pm on Feb. 27, 2005)
The Carling Cup Final is today’s big game and it is probably unwise to apply the Premiership-derived ratings to the game. However, for interest, if Chelsea were playing at home to Liverpool they would be +114, which is equivalent to 4/7. If they were playing at Anfield, they would be +83( 8/11) using the ratings formula. On neutral ground, Chelsea are a best priced 11/10 and generally evens, which looks very attractive.
1-1 after 90mins, Chelsea won 3-2 after extra time<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:13 pm on Feb. 27, 2005)
I’ve looked through the ratings for this weekend’s Premiership and Championship games and I’ve short -listed the following teams:<br>               ratings odds     likely odds<br>Preston (+4)      13/8           11/4<br> Preston won 2-1
Bolton (+10)       6/4           2/1<br> Bolton won 1-0<br>Leeds (+49)       1/1           15/8<br> Draw 1-1<br>The bookmakers appear to have the rest of the games in the top two divisions priced up right.
Further down the lists, there are quite a few value prices;
Rochdale(+9)        6/4       9/4<br> Draw 0-0
Cambridge (+11)     6/4       5/2<br> Lost 2-0<br>Southend(+74)       4/5       5/4<br> Draw 2-2<br>Wycombe (+13)      6/4       11/4<br> Won 3-2<br>Shrewsbury (+1)      6/5       2/1<br> Draw 1-1<br>Notts Co (+32)       5/4        5/2<br> Won 1-0<br>Grimsby (+1)        13/8       12/5<br> Won 2-1<br>Hamilton (+29)       5/4        5/2<br> Won 2-0<br>It will be interesting to see how these games turn out. ÂÂÂ
I missed Macclesfield (+36), 6/5, 2/1 off the list. They lost 1-0. <br>Very good results this week. I will be keeping an eye on the ratings for lower league games in future – they may be worth a few investments.
(Edited by Artemis at 8:32 am on Mar. 8, 2005)
Three ratings-derived bets this weekend:
LAY West Ham to lose 50pts @ 2.14 (Betfair)<br>Preston won 2-1 +42 pts<br>Leeds to win 25pts@2/1 (Stan James)<br>Draw 1-1 -25pts<br>LAY Man City to lose 50pts@ 2.6(Betfair)<br>Bolton won 1-0 +30pts
Profit on the weekend of 47pts.
The bank now stands at 1,062pts(profit 62pts).
(Edited by Artemis at 8:38 am on Mar. 8, 2005)
The RFO carries ratings for the four major european domestic leagues(Spanish, German, Italian and French) on the same scale as those for our own leagues.
This week’s games in the European Champions League involving English sides are rated as follows:
                odds<br>Chelsea 990 (+31)    5/4<br>Barcelona 969<br>Chelsea won 4-2<br>AC Milan 993(+28)     5/4<br>Man Utd 965<br>AC Milan won 2-0<br>Arsenal 951(+2)      13/8<br>Bayern Munich 949<br>Arsenal won 1-0<br>B Leverkusen 931(+68) 4/5<br>Liverpool 863<br>Liverpool won 3-1<br>The bookmakers have the prices just about right for three of the games, but are a bit short on Arsenal. The draw in this game @ 5/2 looks the best value option over the two nights.
Tonight’s Championship games look priced up right according to ratings.<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 8:04 am on Mar. 10, 2005)
I’ve had a chance to work through the matches for the weekend using the ratings formula. The following teams look interesting:<br>               Ratings odds      Actual Odds <br>Cardiff(+20)        11/8            5/2
Preston(+81)        8/11           10/11
MK Dons(+69)        4/5            11/10
Bradford(+48)        11/10          13/8
Blackpool(+5)         13/8            9/2!!
Wrexham(+63)        8/11           11/10
Grimsby(+23)         11/8           11/5
Northampton(+64)      5/6           13/10   ÂÂÂ
Rochdale (+15)          6/4            4/1!!
A couple there that are hard to believe, yet I’ve double checked the ratings. I’ll leave it till Friday or Saturday before deciding which bets to recommend.
I’m presently monitoring the ratings using the goal supremacy, comparing the actual result with the predicted result. A plus figure indicates that the actual results(for goal supremacy) were better than predicted and vice versa. Last week’s Premiership and Championship games came out at -290 from 21 games, a very small sample. I might be able to draw some conclusions after a few hundred games.<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:33 pm on Mar. 12, 2005)
Recommended bets:
LAY Coventry to lose 50pts @2.24(Betfair)<br>Draw 1-1   +38pts<br>50pts win Preston 1/1 (Stan James, Blue Square)<br>Draw 2-2   -50pts<br>40pts win MK Dons 6/5(Bet Direct)<br>Draw 1-1   -40pts<br>30pts win Bradford@13/8 (Bet 365)<br>Draw 2-2   -30pts<br>10pts win Blackpool@9/2(Skybet, Bet 365, Stan James)<br>Lost 3-2    -10pts<br>50pts win Wrexham@11/10 (Blue Square, Stan James, Victor Chandler)<br> Won 1-0    +55pts<br>LAY Boston Utd to lose 50pts@2.68(Betfair)<br>Draw 1-1    +28pts<br>30pts win Northampton@13/10 (Bet 365)<br>Lost 3-2     -30pts<br>LAY Swansea to lose 50pts @1.93(Betfair)<br>Draw 2-2    +51 pts<br>Total Risk 360pts.<br>profit on the day  12pts
The bank now stands at 1,074 pts (74 pts profit)
(Edited by Artemis at 6:49 pm on Mar. 12, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:51 pm on Mar. 12, 2005)
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