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Soccer Ratings Method

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  • #3814
    Artemis
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    • Total Posts 1736

    Ratings for Soccer Matches using the RACING and FOOTBALL OUTLOOK(RFO)

    If anyone is interested in compiling ratings for football games, I suggest they take a look at Alex Deacon’s RFO Index in the Racing And Football Outlook as a good starting point.<br>The index is a measure of the relative strength of each team and is compiled by rating each team’s performance on a game by game basis, taking account of the strength of the opposition and the margin of victory. <br>There are three figures which can be used to create your own unique rating for any game in the English and Scottish and main European leagues. These figures are:<br>1.The Master rating, M.<br>2.The Home or Away Rating, H or A.<br>3.The Trend, T. (+ or -)<br>For example, Chelsea who are leading the Premiership at the moment, have the following ratings M = 968, H=951, T= +12.<br>This weekend, they are at home to Portsmouth who have ratings: M=866, A= 828, T=-4.<br>The simple formula I use to produce a final rating for each team and hence a figure for superiority is:<br>I add together the Master rating, the Home (or Away) rating and the (Trend x 5).<br>I then divide the result of the above by 2, and that is my final rating for each side.<br>Final Rating = [M + H(or A)+ (Tx 5)] /2<br>THe formula has been revised: go to April 4th<br>For Chelsea,<br>Final Rating = (968 + 951 + 60)/2  = 989.5, (rounded down to) 989<br>For Portsmouth,<br>Final Rating = 866 +828+(-20) /2  = 837

    Therefore Chelsea’s superiority, according to my formula derived from the RFO Index is 989 – 837 = 152<br>In the RFO Index, +80 points is equivalent to a superiority of one goal. Because of the formula I use, I estimate that one goal superiority is equivalent to +100 points.<br>I have created a table that gives odds for the top-rated side in any game together with the equivalent goal superiority.<br>In predicting the outcome of any game, I would say that a rating between 0 and +30 ( odds between 5/4 and 13/8) is worth thinking about as a likely draw.

    Rating (+)                 Odds           Goal Superiority<br>0                              13/8                    0<br>10                             6/4                     0.1<br>20                            11/8                    0.2<br>30                             5/4                     0.3<br>40                             6/5                    0.4<br>50                             1/1                    0.5<br>60                             5/6                    0.6<br>70                             4/5                    0.7<br>80                             8/11                  0.8<br>90                            4/6                     0.9<br>100                         8/13                    1.0<br>110                          4/7                     1.1<br>120                         8/15                    1.2<br>130                          1/2                     1.3<br>140                         4/9                      1.4<br>150                         2/5                      1.5<br>160                         1/3                      1.6<br>170                         1/4                      1.7<br>180                         1/5                      1.8<br>190                         1/6                      1.9<br>200                         1/7                      2.0

    The way to use the ratings is to compare them with the fixed odds and spreads, and look for significant differences. Essentially, you are comparing your assessments against those of the professional odds makers and market makers.<br>I intend, as a trial, to post some recommended bets, based on the ratings formula. If anyone else uses the RFO Index, or has developed their own football ratings, I would be interested to hear.

    (Edited by Artemis at 6:32 pm on April 16, 2005)

    #89094
    Artemis
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    • Total Posts 1736

    Todays main matches:

    Arsenal( +113) against Newcastle, relates to odds of around 4/7 and goal superiority of 1.1. Both of these are less than what’s available, so nothing doing.

    West Ham (0) appear to be over-priced against Derby, so there is scope for a bet. The draw at 12/5, or lay of West Ham is suggested.

    Betting Bank   1,000pts

    West Ham to draw @12/5  40pts  Result: 1-2<br>loss 40pts

    Betting Bank  960pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 9:12 am on Jan. 24, 2005)

    #89095
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Blackburn (+37) are slightly favoured and the odds available look spot on. No bet.

    #89096
    dandan
    Member
    • Total Posts 199

    Hi Artemis,

    I will follow ur thread with interest!!<br>Best of luck

    #89097
    Artemis
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    • Total Posts 1736

    It’s Cup football for the rest of the week starting with the Semis of the League Cup. These matches often have a different ‘dynamic’, or emphasis than league fixtures, so I wouldn’t necessarily trust the ratings because they are based exclusively on league form. There will be no recommended bets until next week.

    #89098
    Artemis
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    • Total Posts 1736

    No doubt which game grabs the headlines this week.<br>Tomorrow’s Highbury clash between Arsenal and Man Utd takes centre stage and is live on Sky.

    The ratings:

    Arsenal 952      Man Utd 967(+15)

    This looks a likely draw, but I believe the 3.45 available for Man Utd on Betfair this morning is great value and recommend a BACK for  40pts.  

    Man Utd won 4-2 returning a profit(after 5% commission) of 93 pts.

    Betting bank(start 1,000pts) is now 1,053pts

    (Edited by Artemis at 8:54 am on Feb. 2, 2005)

    #89099
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I’ve rated this evening’s Premiership matches:

    Birmingham 858(+34)         Southampton 824  2-1<br>Blackburn 886                     Chelsea 983(+97)0-1<br>Everton 980(+85)               Norwich 815  1-0<br>Fulham 881(+43)                Aston Villa 838 1-1<br>Man City 877(+39)              Newcastle 838 1-1

    The odds available look about right, so no bet is recommended. <br>

    (Edited by Artemis at 7:09 pm on Feb. 3, 2005)

    #89100
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    There are about six possible bets this weekend thrown up by differences between the ratings and the bookmaker’s /exchange odds.

    On Friday evening, Sunderland(+29) look to have an edge over Wolves, who are put in as favs, so I will be looking to LAY Wolves to lose me 50pts (currently 2.78) if they win. In effect I’m backing Sunderland and the draw at around 4/7 with 50pts.<br>Result 1-1 giving a profit of 27pts(after commission)<br>Betting bank now 1,080pts(profit 80pts) <br>There are  also suggested bets on Saturday and Sunday, which I’ll post tomorrow.<br>

    (Edited by Artemis at 9:51 am on Feb. 5, 2005)

    #89101
    Artemis
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    • Total Posts 1736

    The rest of the weekend’s best bets as indicated by the ratings:

    1.  Bolton(+28) to beat Crystal Palace  20pts at 7/4, generally available.<br>Bolton won 1-0, profit 35pts<br>2.  Newcastle to draw with Charlton(+2)  20pts at 5/2<br>Draw 1-1, profit 50pts<br>3.  Preston(+119) to beat Coventry  40pts at 8/11<br>Preston won 3-2, profit 29pts<br>4. Rotherham(+37) to beat Notts Forest 20pts at 6/4<br>Draw 0-0, loss 20pts<br>Sunday

    5. Southampton(+8) to draw with Everton 20pts at 9/4<br>Draw 2-2, profit 45pts<br>6. Cardiff (+9) to beat West Ham 10pts at 7/2 generally, 4/1 with Stan James.

    West Ham won 1-0, loss 10pts<br> <br>Bank 1,209pts(profit 209pts)

    (Edited by Artemis at 6:39 pm on Feb. 6, 2005)<br>

    (Edited by Artemis at 6:41 pm on Feb. 6, 2005)

    #89102
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    I’ve looked at the Premiership and Championship for the coming weekend and I’ve picked out the following as possible value bets according to the ratings:

    Portsmouth (+75) to beat Aston Villa at around 5/4

    Man Utd (+99) to beat Man City at around 5/6

    Burnley(+45) to win at Coventry at around 2/1

    Crewe(+15) to beat/draw with Wigan

    Rotherham(+2) to beat/draw with Plymouth

    Preston (+25) to beat QPR at around 9/5

    It’s worth waiting to get the best out of the various markets, so I’ll post recommended bets over the weekend.

    #89103
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Interesting thread Artemis.  

    May I ask a question?  How are you deciding on staking levels?

    #89104
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    tooting,

    Having decided that a team looks a value bet, staking levels are roughly based on:

    (a) the perceived value i.e difference between ratings odds and actual odds available

    (b) aiming to win/risk between 30 and 50 points on each game.

    (c) if the match is close – under +30 – I am more inclined to lay the opposing team rather than going for a win on the team with the better rating unless the odds are very attractive.

    <br>Recommended bets:

    1. BACK Portsmouth to beat Aston Villa 40pts @2.42 Betfair (13/10 best with books)<br>   Aston Villa won 2-1, Loss 40pts<br>2. ManUtd to beat Man City 50 pts @5/6 generally available.<br>   Man Utd won 2-0, Profit 42pts<br>3. Back Burnley to beat Coventry 20pts @3.6 Betfair<br>15/8 best with books.<br>   Burnley won 2-0, profit 49pts after comm 5%<br>4. LAY Wigan (to lose or draw) 40pts @ 2.24 Betfair<br>   Wigan won 3-1, loss 40pts<br>5. LAY Plymouth 50pts @1.91 Betfair<br>   Draw 1-1, profit 52 pts after comm 5%<br>6. BACK Preston 20pts @3.25 Betfair<br>best price 15/8 with books <br>Preston won 2-1, profit 43pts after comm 5%

    <br>Bank B/F 1,209pts (209pts profit)<br>Weekend profit      106pts<br>Bank C/F 1,315 pts(315pts profit)

    <br>Bank 1,315pts( profit 315 pts)

    (Edited by Artemis at 7:05 pm on Feb. 13, 2005)

    #89105
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    Thanks Artemis, makes sense.  

    I’ve got Portsmouth in at 5/4 so whilst not betting will be with you there.  However, on my prices Man City are nudging towards a bet, so I’ll be following that one with interest!

    It looks a sound approach, and I’m always on the side of anyone brave enough to post up a methodology.  Best of luck with it.<br>

    #89106
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Thanks for good wishes, tooting.

    I used to do my own ratings a few years ago, mainly for a pools syndicate, but found it too time consuming so I left it for a while.

    I’ve been following Alex Deacon’s excellent ratings (which are quite similar to those I devised) for a few seasons and I think that the current formula I use could do very well. Only time will tell.

    #89107
    Robotica
    Member
    • Total Posts 516

    <br>Artemis.

    Although I have no real interest in Football betting, I think that due respect has to be given here for your thoughts and knowledge.

    An excellent return on stakes would have been made on Saturday’s (12th Feb) wagers.

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