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Like Max, I wanna tell ya all a story.
There were six hares and one tortoise sitting quietly, hidden in the undergrowth of a vastly overgrown garden enjoying the late afternoon filtering sun of what had been a nice summer’s day. The new owner stepped out, and the six hot minds and the slightly cooler one, all overheard the neighbour advising him that, the previous owner to him, had lost a very valuable gold ring somewhere in the back garden. A croc of gold the hares thought, and they all started to natter amongst themselves, and very soon they were nibbling the grass down and trying to pick their way gingerly through the bramble. The tortoise noticed that the neighbour was the proud owner of a horribly immaculate manicured lawn, and had erected a five foot high see-through plastic fence, made up of little green triangles that were just impossible for him to get through, and he just pulled his neck back into his shell and applied some deep mind thinking to the evidence, as the hares hared off in their feverish search.
After three long days the hares had covered every inch of the large expanse of garden in their search and were all laid stretched out and sparked out, in the shade – all too tired to speak, and with nothing but aches to show for their effort.
The tortoise who unlike the younger speed merchants, had not moved an inch, poked his head out slowly from his shell and spoke to them in a confident but rasping voice and exclaimed…
” The gold ring exists only in the neighbours mind ”
The hares looked defeated, and it was just at this dawning moment that the the new owner stepped out of the garden shed with a large looking spade and started to dig.
Comment : Neural networks are non-linear in their make up unlike linear regression models which are often used with different covariates to predict future outcomes.
I do not condemn any method if it produces workable and worthwhile results. My advice would be to keep parameters simple and withdraw the neck and think carefully for several days before embarking on what may be a fruitless task. Is the croc of gold actually attainable given the closing of accounts and the crippling taxes soon to bear down ? Do your own risk assessment. Another thing, do you really want to be a fugitive wearing a false beard ? The practicalities require a workable system in itself, aside from the value fountain, once you have managed to turn that on.
Dynamite you have uncovered two gems in thinking smart not hard, and using the old withdrawal method. Mac is right with his mind control being the God that rules the whole kingdom of attainable profit. Stewards and cameras do have a good handle on things as the Tipster so perfectly points out.
tbracing, Sandman, and all of you out there, short cuts do exist, and outside of coding, and to the general linear approach adopted by the majority of serious researchers and these can free you up from the four hours a day drudge, always spoken of an essential constituent to finding the croc of gold. They are in themselves like the proverbial needle though.flatcapgamble….yeah think non-linear and with the flexibility of a cat on heat 😯
p.s. I may be back, but it’s teatime !
The edit button has become my greatest friend
“The book majors on highlighting non-triers. This produces a betting market that resembles swiss cheese”.
Non-triers happen. This book was first published in 1960. Bookmakers in Britain didn’t appear until around that time and no TV coverage of day to day Racing. Even when your copy met the shelves in the early 70’s. John Francome in his book Born Lucky tells of a foggy day at Chepstow. One jockey pulled his mount up early on the first circuit. Something must have gone wrong with the horse? Not a bit of it. Joined in again on the final circuit and went on to win! That type of thing would never go on these days. Cameras follow the horses from every angle and give a much clearer picture too. Scrutiny of dedicated Racing channels showing every race etc. Stewards can see much more and if they miss something it’s usually seen by a presenter or viewers. For sure there’s still some non-triers, but nowhere near as many as when this book hit the tracks. Maybe there is more skulduggery in the USA? Doubt it.
If there are so many non-triers that the market resembles swiss cheese; then how come many of us make a good profit purely through studying form and backing those we believe are over-priced? If the betting market was so full of holes it would be impossible.
…And if the betting market is riddled with holes, how come the percentage of races each price wins is pretty much exactly what you’d expect from those odds?Punters knowingly or unknowingly want to believe the reason why they haven’t made a profit over the years is nothing to do with them/their bets. They want to believe it’s because of non-triers and therefore wanting a way of identifying non-triers. Beware of books making use of this.
Look forward to the chapter on form study.
Value Is EverythingI am looking forward to testing out the books theories at my local track.
Wolverhampton (AW)
class 5,6 and 7 hcps
at least 9 runners
>4 runs each
4yo+D21
ps 100 race analysis may take ages
Gingertipster it’s a fair comment about…
“SPs pretty much match the expected percentages”
But there’s a significant underplay also it’s only an average.
(Head in the fridge & feet in the oven)
Plus the odds reflect the non triers chance. Bookies know this but dont want to make it TOO OBVIOUS.
As a whole horse racing is acceptably straight. Immoral liberties are part of scene and factored into the maths. Bookmakers are at pains to normalise the outward appearance, in order to maintain commercial confidence.
Also occasionally horses win at VALUE for money, thus providing some slack in the market for the fiddling to take up.
There’s also sizable chunk of difficulty in knowing the mysteries of the betting market.
Often in the low grade races the market movements can be all over the place, but it must be driven by meaningful actions.
I will post an ODDS REPORT to give a reality check background perspective.
D21
There are no “mysteries of the betting market” Dynamite.
Markets in low grade races are “all over the place” because – compared to higher grades – it takes a miniscule amount of money staked to change the odds. Very little is wagered on course (or off course come to that). “Meaningful actions”, well not really. Just that a big bet or two in one of these races can be a SIGNIFICANT PERCENTAGE of the overall money wagered on the race… And bookies – trying to make a reasonably equal book – have no option but to react, taking drastic action. Both shortening those with higher liabilities up and – in an attempt to get money for others – lengthening those with little to pay out in the book. Then – if a big bet or two comes for something else it all happens again. Hence markets being “all over the place”.No “myseries”, just simple mathematics; bookies doing what they need to in making a book.
Value Is EverythingWith these low grade races you need to watch re runs if you have the time.
Particularly winners that have won with a bit in hand and ask yourself will the mandatory 5 pound penalty stop it next time out.
I really like a horse that gets there too late and is upped in trip the next race it runs.My dream is to find a trainer with a 50 rated horse thats putting it to a 70 plus horse at home. 33 to 1 into evens !!
Its funnily enough I met a large independent bookie once and told him my plan. He frankly told me thats what everyone is after. I got a right kick out of that. Knowing I wasnt the only one dreaming.
It can be done. No names but a certain well known Irish trainer “sold” a horse to England for a nominal fee of 1,000 pound…to hardly known English trainer. A week following the sale they turned the horse out rated 54. They backed it off the boards..16s in to 100/30 fav…Horse bolted up.Look there was no sale. It was the perfect stroke.
Colosus
Look i have pulled some strokes over the years.
It can be done however its getting harder to get on.
How do I get 5 grand on at 16s or higher ?
The staff that know me well will push the boat out to a 3 grand return. They say any higher return figure will have to be rang in to the horse traders. Having worked with them they will probably offer me a grand at 6s..just to get rid of me. Then the word is out and I have nothing on. Catch 22 !
I wish I could ring up Victor Chandler and personally ask him will he lay me 5 grand at 33s on my horse and tell him to have a few bob on himself…or even give him a free grand at 33s for himself. To my knowledge bookies can lay off in someway….but on the other hand we the punter/owner cant get on.
Am I making sense ?
Colosus68
I get knocked back for 20 quid! @Hills …got caught ARBING.
Personally i want to make 200pts bread & butter money per year. Whilst at the same time this will pay for some low stakes multiple perms. Then just wait for the 100k return to hit the target.
Lucky 15’s, FC trebles and TC doubles bets are always taken.
I have already landed a 10k Lucky15
(only 40p a line)D21
Getting caught arbing and getting knocked back for a score bet.
Is it really that bad. I gave up online gambling way back. I like to bet in cash and collect in cash.
The cashiers are there to do a job. They have normal limits of 1500 max liability, a max of 1500 return.
Some managers will lay you up to 3000. Then they will have security breathing down their throat.
I have often considered going for an SP gamble but I have never set one up before.
Answer me this how do the likes of Presscott, Varian, the Easterbys, the Applebys, and many other punting trainers get money on.
Look i am no fool i dont just hand over cash and say go for it. I work on due diligence. They have to earn my trust plus I do my own research.
How did big Freddie take on the bold JP Mcmanus ?
The daughter owns Betfred now. Will she take a nice bet ?
Barney Curly famously went to Galway with his dual purpose horse Magic Combination some years ago.
To this day I dont know what possessed him to go to the main bookie on the rails the notorious Sean Graham. BC wanted 20,000 punts on his at around 9 to 4. It was a legendary story at the time. SG offered him 1,000 or so at starting price.
There was absolute bleedin murder. Barney went mad and it was shown on the state news channel. He called Sean Graham a clown that wouldnt lay 6 bananas to a monkey !! or something like it.
Magic Combination won twice in Galway that week.As an old friend of mine said once.
“there many bookies with 2 cashiers and one payout”
It says it all doesnt it ?
Colosus
20 quid in the bookies! (“ive got a phone your bets through… you can have a tenner at SP”) ……walks out in disgust
Trainers get on because… their loyalty is to the bookmakers NOT the punters. They have special arrangements.
Frankly Colosus if you get those amounts of bets accepted, you must be a good bet.
A GREEN TRAFFIC LIGHT.Stick with me kid i will get you profitably BANNED!
D21
goodday D21
Any idea how to pull off an SP gamble ?
I have never looked in to it
ok
Colosus
Not sure what you mean by an SP gamble.
But ive watched plenty of AW gambled on Favourites that are allowed to win. They win like a world beater because the other jockeys are just waving and watching.
Theres no need to take a price, in fact you want it to be heavily backed. I just need to research the trigger points that leads to this non contest being revealed. Getting the money on would be easy enough.
D21
Talking earlier about Barney Curley and the monkeys and the bananas in Galway many years ago…about trying to get a large bet on.
Speaking of apes, before The Simpsons regressed into an abomination, it was truly incredible TV, redefining the concept of the cartoon. Late in season four, Homer is shown around by his boss Mr Burns, who believes he has solved the problem of having to pay humans to work.
Homer is shown a smelly, smoke-filled room. “This is a thousand monkeys working at a thousand typewriters,” Burns boasts. “Soon, they’ll have finished the greatest novel known to man.
All right,” he adds, lifting up one of the monkey’s scripts. “Let’s see… ‘It was the best of times, it was the BLURST of times?’ You stupid monkey!”
The best of times, the blurst of times. He might have been talking about trying to get a bet on over 25 years later.
Yes 25 years and the advent of the world wide web its got harder.
Colosus
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