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“DO YOU KNOW …
* How to tell when they’re trying?
* How to spot a stiff?
* How to read the trainer’s mind?
* How to tell when they’re not betting?
* How to pick the “mudders”?
* How to tell which races to pass?
* How to throw out sure-fire losers?
* How to bet different kinds of races?
* How to beat any race that’s fit to play?”i have been looking through my horse racing books and the proceeding opening gambit is from an Americian book circa 1960. It’s full of yankee phrases and definitely shoots from the hip. The sort of articles that wouldn’t get printed in the Racing Post, for fear of killing the GOLDEN GOOSE.
My idea is to digest the individual chapters and boil them down to the bare bones and see how useful they are. Given the potent fact that this book is isolated away from the influences from Bookmakers, Betfair and any industry self interest.
i invite feedback, conversation and discussion.
Gareth
“the art is in the mystery”
Back again to the sixties eh ? Of course there are many more “horseheads” out there and people that live for the buzz of the track – and understandable really they had 200 year march on us and its in their blood. You pay 2.50 3.50 for a ‘program but this is a document of science containing about a hundred pieces of the jigsaw including length behind and positional fractionals amongst the plethora of stats and so unlike English courses who treat the public much like mugs who they think want a knees up as they flutter away their three pony bank. The U.S. encourage Phd’s.
I have only been investigating the American way for six months but the markets are getting stronger as more tune in by default. Of the New York courses I have a particular fondness for Aqueduct as I have had some incredible turn ups there. As for spotting a stiff – that could be a horse player after the last get out of trouble stakes outsider is a cigar away from a good night’s sleep. Alternatively it could be a course with an uphill enough to sap a frontrunner out of a show. Win place and show is the order. Good luck dynamite but if you can re-light the fuse and crack the code from way back then it will be akin to a moon landing but have fun in your tin can – I for one will be watching and possibly Neil.
flatcapgamble…I love Lucy
Thanks Keymaster for your encouragement.
gamble i think we must have the same psychologist. A lot of your message definitely chimes with me. Yeah i regard every race as a 100 piece jigsaw that must be divided amongst the runners (min of 1 piece each). Again i consider the prospect of making longterm worthwhile money from betting to be akin to putting a MAN ON THE MOON. Moreover it’s clearly not sufficent to know how to do it
(THATS HARD ENOUGH) but you then have to perform the task.Another thought of mine is… Bookmakers don’t wake up each morning scratching their heads saying “how do i make money today?” They have a system and they stick to it ridgidly. Winning punters must execute an equal amount of professional systematic discipline. So harping back to the 1960’s isn’t a problem to me the wisdom of the ages still rings true, (well lets see). Also American books on horse racing give the subject a far more forensicly serious approach that is lacking with GB offerings.
It’s a shame that USA racing is very dull, and therefore holds no interest for me.
My only focus is on UK horse racing i just want to extract some yankee insight.Dynamite21
Well dynamite you have a lot of energy for the cloth ears in this house that are stuck in old Blighty waiting for their non-existent season to suddenly drum up when Sam the bugler is calling them from Belmont. There is very little free data – even basic – so to take it seriously you need to donate a few dollars more to Equibase Brisnet or Time form U.S. or others.
Betfair is engrossed with its sports book. I must be near to 3000 races I have rated in the past six months and a lot of U.S. stuff but the last three months I have been much more selective. I had three bets only at Tampa last night and went heavy laying the odds on favourite in the last mistakenly initially at 2.38 but had some more below 2.( betfair odds)
I don’t often find Stonkas like that. I have just finished Toowoomba. Tampa was hard last night especially the initial five or six races – that’s why I was writing in here.Horseracing still has some secret avenues but edges do go in time – unless you have a rare one that’s far from the maddening crowd. The little greenies might help but hope you don’t bump into them Clangers up there.
flatcapgamble….Blow my bloody door off !
I guess the answer to all your questions, Dynamite are a collective, “yes”.
Or if not yes to all/every race, then the answer is – if you can’t work out who’s “trying” then don’t bet in those races. Bet in races where everyone tries. However, most horses are trying, they just do not have conditions to suit and/or out of form/trainer is out of form. Therefore can not run to their best rating. That said, the lower the grade the more skulduggery goes on, so if concerned then don’t bet in lower grades.
“Stiff” courses are interesting to know and usually favour those with stamina. However, position according to the individual pace of the race is key. ie Stiff finishes favour hold up horses only if the pace is good/strong from a fair way out. Slow fractions actually favour prominent runners big-time! Imagine a jockey being told (seemingly wisely) “keep something for the stiff uphill finish” and yet if every jockey does just that then it is even more difficult for hold up horses to win. ie To catch the leaders who are themselves quickening. Therefore – even more important than usual – need to know how much pace is in the race. What the pace is likely to be and where each jockey/horse is likely to sit in the field.
Reading the trainer’s mind. Connections will try and do what’s best for the horse in order to win this or a race. However, some trainers are in better form than others (best judged more on how their recent runners performed above or below market expectation rather than purely number of winners). Some trainers are better at winning races after lay-offs… And just to complicate things some horses are better fresh/first time after a break too… Some need a run or two in order to peak. Some trainers will have a better record at particular courses and some horses are better at certain courses/types of course (right/left handed, undulating/flat, stiff or easy etc. Some trainers do better at certain times of the year, ditto for some horses. Look up Aurora’s Encore’s Spring form compared to Winter and ask yourself whether he should ever have been 66/1 (119/1) for the 2013 Grand National. 😉
If unable to deduce from the above… Some trainers/owners don’t bet, some do. For those that do, it is sometimes best to wait and see which way the market goes. ie If a horse itself ran poorly last time out for no apparent form reason… it will (only partly) be allowed for in the original market. A further lengthening can be expected if not thought to be in A1 condition. However, if beginning to shorten might be best to get on before it shortens to a price the horse would’ve been in the first place without the poor run last time out.
How to pick the “mudders” on turf (beware, it won’t be the same way in American Dirt racing)! Best to look at the form, but if no previous soft/heavy runs then look at the horse’s action. A rounded pounding action is usually what’s required, where as a pointed toe and/or daisy cutting is a top-of-the-ground/firm ground action. If not knowing its action then the sire, dam’s and to a degree grand-sires effectiveness on the surface can tell quite a bit.
Hope that answers some questions Dynamite.
…More to come.Value Is EverythingHow to tell which races to pass? Fairly simple – types of race the individual bettor has a poor record with. But also races which are difficult to work out where the pace is going to come from (although could bet in=running). Also don’t bet if the race is too difficult to work out (for any reason) the fair chances of all horses in the field. Be aware that each horse’s chance/fair odds affects all the other horses fair odds/chances.
There is no such thing as a “sure-fire loser” (or winner). Standing in the Goodwood grandstand, a racing pal of mine Chris asked “what do you think of horse X the paper 11/2 second favourite. I said “rain hasn’t come in his favour, disappointed on good-soft and this is even softer”. I walked around to see them in the paddock. On the way back I looked at the tote board. This particular horse was now 16/1 and at those odds worth a small wager! Needless to say I backed it and Chris did not. Soft ground form can be a coincidence.
If a horse lacking in stamina for a 12f race it still has a chance of winning if the early and mid pace are both slow. Not needing to stay 12f to win a 12f race.
Outsider might be 100/1 and has a poor chance of winning, but you only need to believe it has a 2% chance to be worth a bet at those odds! Every horse has its price.Personally, I look at every race the same way. Value Is Everything.
Books concentrating on finding “winners” often don’t work. Profit is about more than winners alone.
Many will know their form book inside out, but unfortunately if a punter is no good at converting form in to chance he/she will fail.Long term success depends on strike rate compared to average odds of his/her winners. Profit can then be improved by betting more when believing the odds particularly generous compared to what you believe the fair chance/odds are.
Value Is Everythinggamble i don’t like USA horse racing i just want to distill the knowledge from the book in question. Therefore i have no need for Americian data (PHEW!) Happily i maintain my own database and have accesss to 20 years of UK results data.
Thanks Gingertipster for your very detailed reply
i am sure i will refer back to it many times in the near future, as i continue with the main thrust of this exploratory THREAD conversation.My nature is not to rush to answers/decisions i enjoy reflecting and considering ideas and angles of thought. Ultimately i hope to be able to work towards developing a filter through which a race’s vibe/mood music around the solid form can be detected.
A database QUERY simulation would be…
*(no comments in the margins right now,
ASK THE AUDIENCE TIME …what do you think of this First Chapter?)
Any crystal ball would obviously be very valuable and snapped up. The man appears to be little and old so a little old man.I think the presumption is the ball would be loaned out for one race so an understanding of odds and how to Dutch might be inferred. The combined odds of the three horses is just over evens (1.0366) so a dutching of the three would indeed produce that profit given you can get those morning odds. Interesting.
flacapgamble….better hide your ball if you want to get any money on
If absolutely certain one of the three horses will win the punter could indeed back all three to win:
Just under evens.
3/1 = 25%
5/1 = 16.67%
10/1 = 9.09%
25.00 + 16.67 + 9.09 = 50.76%, a shade of odds-on. 0.97/1For “guaranteed” victory…
Betting to win the same amount of profit whichever one of the three won:
Staking a total of £5076
£2500 @ 3/1 = £7500 winnings + £2500 stake back = £10,000 returned. + £4,924 on the dutch.
£1667 @ 5/1 = £8335 winnings + £1667 stake back = £10,002 returned. + £4,926 on the dutch.
£909 @ 10/1 = £9090 winnings + £909 stake back = £9,999 returned. + £4,923 on the dutch.(The three possible outcomes are slightly different because 5/1 is actually 16.6666666 recurring and 10/1 9.09090909 recurring).
It wouldn’t really matter if the three added up to combined odds of long odds-on if guaranteed one of the three was going to win…
Truth is the seller is right when saying not even a crystal ball can tell you the winner. However, crystal balls can’t narrow it down with any certainty either. Crystal balls don’t work!
Value Is Everything
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