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Evening Slowly Away & Blues Brother, I’d just like to start a thread where we could start assessing the All Weather season and helping each other throw up some potentially decent form to make a few quid out off – are you up for this?
Any thoughts from tonight’s action guys?
75.80
Pastoral Jet
83.15
Birdlover
74.59
Cappadocia
84.98
Arch Villain
85.53
Castillo Del Diablo
82.42
Glaisdale
The standout for me is
BIRDLOVER
who has run 0.68s quicker than his standard elevating him to around the
0-85 level
whilst showing around an
11 lbs
improvement but it’s hard to gauge where to set a mark for today and it could be a case of waiting until the handicapper has his say.
Any thoughts from last night gentlemen?
Wolverhampton (19.10.12)
83.02
Above Standard
71.65
Work Ethic
75.69
Justbookie Dot Com
80.52
Neige D’Antan
75.62
El Mirage
77.03
Shaunaus Spirit
Variance:
2.52 (Standard)
The standout runner from the card is
ABOVE STANDARD
who clocked a figure of
83.02
which is nearly 1 1/2 standard deviations above the mean but certainly figures outside the upper range off
81.27
, did any of you catch the race? it has to have been run at a brisk pace.
The bare clock suggests he’s run 5lbs better than his mark elevating him to just below the
0-90 benchmark
when converted into seconds on my standard scales (0.02 Milliseconds to be precise) and that doesn’t account for the 4 length beating off Ginger Ted equating to 12.8lbs over 6f which accumulates to 17.8lbs.
With the help of The Racing Post system rater we can add the 18lbs to his mark of
64
which equals
82
just below our initial assessment of the 0-90 bracket which is a positive sign.
Then using the 3.2lb/length scale for this distance we get the following; (Predicted Mark) – (Current Mark)
82
/
64
Above Standard (IRE) 7/4F
69
/
64
Ginger Ted (IRE) 100/30
64
/
63
Dark Lane 4/1
62
/
63
Powerful Pierre 9/1
49
/
65
Silkee Supreme 16/1
48
/
65
Choice Words (USA) 66/1
46
/
64
Man Of My Word 40/1
44
/
65
Mister Mackenzie 7/1
38
/
65
Volcanic Dust (IRE) 33/1
32
/
64
Chester’Slittlegem (IRE) 33/1
I think it’s fair to say that ABOVE STANDARD will notch up a hat trick in the near future.
The Sir Mark Prescott horse skipped my attention really,
NEIGE D’ANTAN
who has similarly run 5 lbs quicker on the bare clock resulting in 0.28s bringing him to the
0-75 benchmark
which we then include the 3.75l victory which brings us to a total of
12lbs
.
With the help of The Racing Post system rater we can add the 12lbs to his mark of 55 which equals 67, Then using the 1.8lb/length scale for this distance we get the following; (Predicted Mark) – (Current Mark)
67/55
Neige D’Antan 11/10F
60/53
Taro Tywod (IRE) 9/1
54/55
Essell 13/2
50/55
Neil’s Pride 5/1
43/55
Crucis Abbey (IRE) 33/1
42/47
Bubbly Bounty 28/1
38/47
Lady Intrigue (IRE) 40/1
36/39
Lady Author 80/1
31/49
First Glance 7/1
28/52
Variety Show (IRE) 16/1
21/43
Leonards Pride (IRE) 66/1
0/48
Naturalmente (IRE) 20/1
With the nature behind the stereotypical Sir Mark Prescott horses we might find that there’s more value behind
TARO TYWOD
next time out especially if the handicapper drops him there must be a great chance of securing a win given this was a 0-55 he’s run to a mark of 60 and currently resides off 53.
So I’ve just had a quick nap before starting the glorious Saturday of Racing + Football and wanted to catch up a little bit on some off the All Weather meetings in the past week in which I may have come across a decisive bit of form.
Wolverhampton (13.10.12)
79.40
Amethyst Dawn
73.28
Ouzinkie
77.69
Kathleensluckylad
83.83
The Obvious Choice
78.17
Lulla
79.98
Critical Point
Variance:
2.26 (Standard)
Last Saturday I am interested in the winner of the second division Nursery
THE OBVIOUS CHOICE
trained by Stuart Williams and ridden by Harry Bentley "
Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, led and edged left well inside final furlong, ran on (op 12-1 tchd 14-1)"
The card was pretty average in terms of speed ratings with the range between
75.29 & 82.17
but this horse falls outside that with
83.83
so the indications are it’s a fast run race which the adjusted times show.
To make sure we can rely on this time I’ve used two standard deviations of the par performance so I’m 95% confident that the sample is situated between
-9.96 and +9.96
which is the case; Highest par performer: (The Obvious Choice) +6.19 lengths & Lowest par performer: (Lulla) -8.89 lengths.
More about the winner who has run
15-lbs
better than his mark on the bare clock indicating a
0-80 Benchmark
which you could assume to be higher but the intervals over 7f at Wolverhampton become quite challenging the further you go up in class, whilst we can’t improve on amount in hand given the margin of victory was just a head.
With the help of The Racing Post system rater we can add the 15lbs to his mark of 63 which equals 78 just below our initial assessment of the 0-80 bracket which is a positive sign.
Then using the 2.7lb/length scale for this distance we get the following; (Predicted Mark) – (Current Mark)
78/68
The Obvious Choice 11/1
72/62
Glossy Posse 14/1
75/63
Majestic Jess (IRE) 12/1
59/56
Red Eclipse (IRE) 20/1
79/71
Sennockian Star 5/4F
70/65
Summer Isles 50/1
65/64
Skidby Mill (IRE) 25/1
72/73
This Is Nice (IRE) 9/2
69/72
Ighraa (IRE) 12/1
68/70
Royal Steps (IRE) 14/1
50/68
Admirals Walk (IRE) 16/1
32/52
Baltic Prince (IRE) 20/1
You can go down as far as Summer Isles to find horses who could be starting to find an easier mark whilst the rest will surely drop a lb or two, I’ve updated for the new adjusted marks and the Handicapper has put down
Majestic Jess from 67 to 63!
which is quite a surprise although I would make sure you back some of these in either the same grade or much lower apart from the winner or the runner up say.
Nothing of note at Wolverhampton yesterday but I do believe there have been a few opportunities missed in Ireland over the past couple of months whilst catching up on Dundalk.
Let me start with October the 12th.
80.13
Carpathia
86.31
Spirituality
82.15
Lines of Battle
85.93
Prince of Fire
91.50
Brassbound
85.15
Moo Sahara
Variance:
1.10 (Standard)
You’ll immediately see
Brassbound
catches the eye, well it’s true he does in what was a good time on the day as I’ve got him running +0.31s over the 12f at Dundalk which catapults him to around Listed level but having put the Listed par on he comes to
93.07
which is short of the Listed Speed Rating: 96.00+ and shows the par would be -4.40 equating to -1.45s and dividing the initial 0.31s standard improvement by the 1.45s before using the difference to come back 0.11s from the listed standard we get the
0-100 Benchmark
which shows a near 100% par and speed rating of
92.02
.
Looking at the Official Rating the run was worthy of a 9lbs improvement bringing the winner up from
72
to
81
and plenty more action this winter either over hurdles or on the All Weather.
I see Pires who was third behind Brassbound "Raced in mid-division, pushed along to take close order inside final 2f, went 3rd final furlong, never troubled principals (op 8-1)" won today at Cork, 5-2 fav.
I see
Ginger Ted
is running in the 4:30 Lingfield today currently priced at
11/4
which is quite short given there are a few in this race slipping down the handicap where it would offset his advantage.
Not sure if I feel confident enough to back him outright at that price, although sprint speed ratings tend to be more reliable in getting the job done.
I hope some of you managed to get on! such a close finish I nearly thought he wasn’t getting there but managed to pull out enough at the finish like I mentioned earlier the offset of others dropping down the weights meant a finish like that was probably in order.
Well done Stuart Williams and J-P’G
Lingfield 23.10.2012
83.17
Lady Bellatrix
75.55
Manazel
74.15
Boudoir
81.45
Ginger Ted
76.95
Muhdiq
88.15
Bert The Alert
Variance:
-0.40 (Standard Slow)
Today’s meeting at Lingfield was pretty average but we’ll soon get used to that over the coming months although there was one eyecatching performance in the last race won by Gary Moore’s
BERT THE ALERT
.
Now the time on the day is actually very strong nearly 3 points above the speed rating upper quartile on the day of (85.23) with the average being (79.90).
What’s interesting is the time is only marginally above the upper quartile going calculation of (3.31) by (3.51) which is much smaller differentiation than expected given the clear strength and breadth of speed rating compared to other runners on the day and he’s run
11lbs
better than his current mark.
The raw time is telling me a
0-100 Benchmark
that from the naked eye seems a little far fetched so in applying the 0-100 par onto the run it’s showing that Bert The Alert is missing a minimum of -2.05 lengths and works out a speed rating of (89.71).
The -2.05 lengths equates to -0.39 seconds which we’ll taper off the original 1.18s advantage bringing us to a benchmark of
0-90
and having put a 0-90 par on the speed rating it works out perfect.
Now to reality! having watched the race I see they went HARD for the first couple of furlongs before gradually decreasing in speed whereby Bert The Alert was able to find himself on the bridle entering the final furlong as the others collapsed and credit where it’s due he turned on the gas in the closing stages where it would of been easy to get caught from a runner in behind.
I’m not convinced by this rating not because it’s not a valid account of whats happened by I don’t believe the horses in the frame are actually anything like the figures are projecting for example; the winner seems to be a very dodgy character despite showing a good level of ability, nothing in the race has really competed at the 0-90 level before apart from Hawaana who wasn’t at all productive at that level and most of the yard are out of form or are getting flat runs out of their potential hurdlers.
To be honest I would tread a little careful with this run but I for one wouldn’t disregard it from your form reading unless things start to pan out badly and if you’re going to back something from this race you’d want a decent price for it too!
I’m inclined to believe that CATERINA would be a good benchmark for the run, caught in midfield she found no room in the straight and held off the late surge from Officer in Command, but bare in mind this was a sound run race so you might want to think about backing those up with the pace in a small field later in the year at this level providing they have history for preferring that style of racing.
76/65
Bert The Alert 9/1
79/70
Harry Buckle 4/1F
75/67
Hawaana (IRE) 7/1
77/70
Caterina 8/1
74/67
Officer In Command (USA) 12/1
70/70
Apache Glory (USA) 50/1
62/64
Zenarinda 7/1
66/70
Hunt A Mistress (IRE) 25/1
61/66
Mafi (IRE) 10/1
59/65
Soweto Star (IRE) 14/1
60/68
Ellie In The Pink (IRE) 20/1
55/64
Daniel Thomas (IRE) 8/1
55/64
Hip Hip Hooray 33/1
53/66
Shirataki (IRE) 14/1
There’s a runner today from The Obvious Choice run and that’s
SENNOCKIAN STAR
who runs in the last race at Newmarket.
I’m 50/50 about this one today especially at the price (10-30) because the horse is unproven on this sort of ground and although he was closer to the 0-80 benchmark with a rating of 79 the yard have pitched him in at a 0-85 with a very hot favourite too beat.
I do believe he’s able to step up to this level in particularly given the weight he’ll be receiving as a result and the extra 2 furlongs in distance but it’s too much of a question mark for me this morning and unless he drifts like wildfire to 8’s, 10’s etc then I’m going to let him go.
I’d rather miss a winner than back a loser.
There’s also Sir Mark Prescott’s
NEIGE D’ANTAN
running in the first at Kempton this evening, now I’d be more confident about this horse going in.
He’s entered in a 0-55 Handicap whilst running to a mark of 67 last time out which doesn’t take a rocket scientist it’s going to take an awful lot to stop him here today!
There’s also Sir Mark Prescott’s
NEIGE D’ANTAN
running in the first at Kempton this evening, now I’d be more confident about this horse going in.
He’s entered in a 0-55 Handicap whilst running to a mark of 67 last time out which doesn’t take a rocket scientist it’s going to take an awful lot to stop him here today!You picked one awful race to make a selection
One horse that caught my eye was
BRIDGE THAT GAP
who has improved his speed figure on every run, he has been running over a trip far exceeding his breeding, tonight he drops back 2 furlongs for his handicap debut and at
50/1
a little bit EW will do for me
Interesting you’ve gone for Bridge The Gap, it’s got an awful lot of improvement to find consdering Homeric is an 80 rated horse at best, Tempest Fugit around 85 and Grandlioquent is about a 80 rated horse.
You can get away with chancing these sort of horses in first time handicaps if they’ve been beaten by 105+ rated horses in their Maidens which is probably a true reflection of their marks in the 50s early 60s whereby they have about 10lbs give but there’s nothing to suggest this horse is on a good mark.
Holy Maccaroni! well done there The Blues Brother I guess we called the forcast but I’m going home with a dent in my pocket whilst you landed a massive touch! by the shortest of margins.
Speed Ratings will always be the best methodology of finding winners as The Blues Brother has proven tonight.
One horse that caught my eye was
BRIDGE THAT GAP
who has improved his speed figure on every run, he has been running over a trip far exceeding his breeding, tonight he drops back 2 furlongs for his handicap debut and at
50/1
a little bit EW will do for me
Brilliant tipping !………….
It’s the only race I looked at today and definitely thought the favourite was vulnerable having failed to win in several handicaps but constantly being stuck up another pound or two for finishing placed
That’s the kind of horse I like to oppose !
Her figures are nothing special – last ones adjusted for todays weight I have as 46, 52, 55, 51, 37, 52………so she’s very consistant.
Be interesting to see what she clocked today, I’ll post it up later
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