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Forecast for the track is looking really bad for tomorrow, Addeybb 3/1 looks a stand out price now on soft.
Initially put up regal reality in my thread, but that was before I saw the forecast
Managed to get a bit of 4/1 on addeybb this morning
If the rain comes as heavy as it suggests he is an absolute certainty in my eyes, hes a serious horse when there is cut in the ground and won with any amount in hand at ascot
I took 5/2 about Addeybb with the same thought process frenchy.
Loves the rain and was always going to shorten.
The rain for me and soft ground should make Regal Reality a certainty here?
He has only ran once on soft ground and that was his 2yo debut and he won the race. Hardly any Stoute runners win on 2yo debut and he always leaves them with lots and lots to work on so you could say ‘it was just a weak 2yo race he won on soft’ but I would say it was a big plus he won that race with regards to todays conditions.
His father Intello loved the cut, won a group 3 on soft and was 3rd in the arc to treve on soft. Also won on heavy as a 2yo.
His mother never ran on soft but her father was Mediciean whom Stoute won the lockinge group 1 on soft with.
All signs point to a career best run today from REGAL REALITY imo and I cant understand why anybody would be put off this horse on soft ground.
Crazy price 3/1 on regal reality here. It was only a listed race Adeybb won at Ascot.
Maybe I will look stupid in a few minutes but Regal is nailed on here imo.
Everything that couldve gone wrong for addeybb went wrong
Hard to say whether hed have beaten the winner but he was given absolutely no chance of showing his running being impeded several times and stuck behind horses too
Come on, lads. Horses are suited by a particular kind of race. This was not Tudhope’s fault.
Addeyebb was ridden very similarly to Ascot, indeed he’s always raced in mid-division or even held up. It’s just this race wasn’t as strongly run and did not get the gaps.
Looking at the race beforehand, Knight To Behold was the only out and out front runner.
Forest Ranger can race handily, but this trip on that ground wouldn’t want too strong a pace that would’ve tested his stamina, doesn’t actually lead anyway.
Elarqam has front run in the past, but improvement this season has come tracking the pace or (when other pace horses are there) mid-div. He too would – on the form book – not be suited by a strongly run stamina sapping 10f. So, athough the winner well and truly proved his stamina today – neither Elarqam nor Forest Ranger (nobody) was likely to take on Knight To Behold.
The other three, Bangkok needs plenty of cover to settle and Regal Reality has always been held up bar once when disappointing.
16 runners and plenty of prominent runners at Ascot last time for Addeyebb, got his truly run race. Always likely this 6 runner race (with one front runner) would be fairly slowly run, favouring those ridden proninently. Addeyebb has sometimes looked a thinker too, have my doubts whether Addeyebb likes coming between horses these days. Although impressive at Ascot, had first time cheek pieces that day and raced wide for a long way, would the appendages work a second time?
tbh With Bangkok not good enough/less likely to settle in a 6 horse race and Regal Reality‘s temperament plus doubt about the ground (Stoute horse’s improvement has come on much firmer)… If they did go a good enough pace and a hold up horse was going to win, it would probably be Addeyebb. However, with the expected pace that could easily cause problems/not suit the favourite – I backed the prominent racers Knight To Behold and Elarqam as main bets, with a saver on Addeyebb.Value Is EverythingI misunderstood you then, FF. So Addeyebb was not “given absolutely no chance of showing his running” by his jockey, just circumstances gave him no chance. Fair enough.
Value Is EverythingJust one of those things
on horses that arent prominent runners you need a bit of luck in running, addeybb had pretty much everything go against him
The amount of people that blame jockey’s for rides, when majority of times they are the victim of circumstance is unreal. I am not specifically talking about this race btw, just in general. Mostly pocket talk ofc.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Unless the jockey has done a Jamie spencer and lost on the best horse because he was trying to swoop as late as possible for no reason I dont see the point in being too harsh on the jockeys
It’s actually a bit hard to see what happened on the TV, as there looked plenty of room and then suddenly the camera angle changed and they all looked squeezed up. Put it this way, I think you can tell the difference between class jockeys and just average jockeys in races like this one. He wasn’t riding Addeybb like he had the confidence he was going to win.
Just to clarify, it wasn’t a stupid ride, I shall retract that comment. But it was still a poor ride and I think he made at least a couple of mistakes that might have cost him the race. Jockeys need to judge the pace of the race and pace of the horses around you and DT got it all wrong yesterday. 1) He didn’t react to/see Forest Ranger losing pace when he was also likely to start angling in towards the rail and squeeze room and 2) After he’d made the decision to go up the middle of the pack instead of switching, Addeybb was easily the quickest to pick up when the pace quickened at this point, but instead of just being more patient with him and waiting for the gaps to appear, he rode him straight up Elarqam and Forest Rangers ars*s.
They also didn’t break that fast and DT could’ve got him out a bit quicker and onto the inside rail where Regal Reality was, on the inside of Elarqam which was the perfect position to make sure you don’t get boxed in when they all make their way to the rail on the turn in. OR he could’ve taken him in behind Regal Reality so again on the rail, but instead just allowed him to trot up next to Regal Reality on the outside.
I’m not crucifying jockeys, but the best jockeys don’t get their horses into those situations and have a detailed plan in their heads of race scenarios. DT didn’t appear to have any of that.
Harsh maybe, but thats the difference between the best and the others for me.
Not just wallet talk Jack, although clearly I’d backed him, so naturally more annoyed.
Fair enough Frenchy, Daniel Tudhope is not just an “average” jockey.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
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