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I’m surprised some people find it inconceievable that an Irish Derby winner who also won the Dante and has finished in front of the English Derby winner twice at different distances could be good enough to win the Irish Champion Stakes.
Lol. I thought people here were knowledgable on racing.
I know I didn’t say that so who are you suggesting is underestimating him?
Honest to god no one in this thread (it may have been the other Cape Blanco thread or the race thread in the Big Races Discussion forum).
There’s also a lot of people in betting shops and other places on the internet who are acting like it’s the biggest shock since Zoe found out Kat was her mum.
Think Pinza has it spot on.
And Cumani has it right, sectional timing/times are utterly useless. Lose yourself in time and miss the obvious imo.
Sometimes sectional times will make things obvious.
There are those who believed Cape Blanco flattered by kicking off a slow pace. Sectional times have blown that theory out of the window.Pace is an important aspect of form study, finding those likely to be suited (and unsuited) by the probable pace. It often pays to note those doing best of those held up in a slowly run race, or of those ridden prominently in an overly strong pace. These have done better than their finishing position suggests. Therefore, might get a good handicap mark and/or be a value price next time out
No good jockey will agree with you BB. Amount of races lost by jockeys giving a horse too much rope; or getting involved in a duel for the lead (going off too quick).
Value Is EverythingHorse racing analysis is a blindingy simple game on occasions, with the right tools at your disposal, as Simon has just eloquently demonstrated.
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Not nearly as simple as some of its analysts!
Andrew Beyer pointed out (over 30 years ago) the phenomenon of horses running fast times off uncontested leads being unable to replicate them when challenged by horses of similar class.
It remains every bit as true now as it was then, and is proven time and time again in contemporary racing.- Total Posts 17716
dp
Not nearly as simple as some of its analysts!
Andrew Beyer pointed out (over 30 years ago) the phenomenon of horses running fast times off uncontested leads being unable to replicate them when challenged by horses of similar class.
It remains every bit as true now as it was then, and is proven time and time again in contemporary racing.There is a big difference between going a strong even pace in front which produces fast times, and an overly stong pace infront which does not help a fast time.
Andrew Beyer is right in that: If the front runner was taken on in other races, he’d be setting overly strong early fractions and unable to last home.
Pace of the Champion certainly helped expose flaws in Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over, not fully recovered from ther exetions at York. However….
What is generally meant by an "uncontested lead" is: Yes, being on his own in front, but also where the jockey can kick for home off a medium to slow pace. So being flattered by the result and/or distances, after being in the most advantageous position. In this case Cape Blanco went an overly strong pace, basically working as pacemaker for RVW. Not at all "kicking for home", but weakening in the finish. Although you don’t realise this as his rivals had even less. CB’s overall time was almost the same as Sea The Stars, however, the final 2 furlongs were run 3 seconds slower on Saturday.
Does not matter if the lead was "uncontested" or not, the best place to be with any overly strong pace is held up. With the one proviso of if a horse needs to lead to produce his best, which from Cape Blanco’s earlier form suggests is not the case with him.
Therefore, had Cape Blanco ran a strong pace of even fractions (instead of going "too fast" early), he’d probably have done even better.Value Is EverythingWhatever about the horse, this race is further evidence that Heffernan is one of the finest jockeys around when riding form the front (ridnig form anywhere else though is a different story
)I’ve never ever used or needed times for any race analysis, and never will. I switch off whenever people talk about them, apart from here of course, but again they are just creating a debate with no substance.
Fair play to those who put them to use but my opinion is that they are totally worthless.
- Total Posts 17716
Not nearly as simple as some of its analysts!
Andrew Beyer pointed out (over 30 years ago) the phenomenon of horses running fast times off uncontested leads being unable to replicate them when challenged by horses of similar class.
It remains every bit as true now as it was then, and is proven time and time again in contemporary racing.Is this why Rip won last years Sussex running an uncontested lead and being able to kick early but couldn’t replicate it this year?
Not nearly as simple as some of its analysts!
Andrew Beyer pointed out (over 30 years ago) the phenomenon of horses running fast times off uncontested leads being unable to replicate them when challenged by horses of similar class.
It remains every bit as true now as it was then, and is proven time and time again in contemporary racing.Is this why Rip won last years Sussex running an uncontested lead and being able to kick early but couldn’t replicate it this year?
Not that simple I’m afraid.
- Total Posts 17716
Not nearly as simple as some of its analysts!
Andrew Beyer pointed out (over 30 years ago) the phenomenon of horses running fast times off uncontested leads being unable to replicate them when challenged by horses of similar class.
It remains every bit as true now as it was then, and is proven time and time again in contemporary racing.Is this why Rip won last years Sussex running an uncontested lead and being able to kick early but couldn’t replicate it this year?
Not that simple I’m afraid.
How come?
Surely it’s either true or not. Can’t just be one horse that’s excluded?
Or do you just like Rip, cause it seems that most people are clutching at straws to defend him and to an outsider i.e 2 people I’ve shown this thread too, they think it’s ridiculous!
Fair play to those who put them to use but my opinion is that they are totally worthless.
Well said. I’ve never needed, nor used Italian to put forward an argument before, and while I doff my cap to those who do speak the language, it is clearly a complete waste of time and energy.
Rory,
Can understand not timing parts of races (as in "sectional times"); but doesn’t "pace" come in to your calculations?If a horse who is best at between 7 furlongs and a mile. ie one that needs a truly run race at 7f.
Running over 7f.
Who needs to be held up / dropped out.
In a race where there does not seem to be any natural front runners / any likely to want to make a good pace; ie you believe it’s likely a slow pace will occur. With the result of the horse in question being unable to reach the leaders when coming from the back.Would the price you are willing to take about this horse be the same as when there is likely to be a true pace?
Are you saying pace is not important?
Or that sectional times are not important, and that you only have to look at whether it is a slowly run or fast run race?Value Is EverythingWhatever about the horse, this race is further evidence that Heffernan is one of the finest jockeys around when riding form the front
Agreed!
John Francome said Fred Winter always drummed into his jockeys "You can give away weight but you can’t give away ground"
Rory,
Can understand not timing parts of races (as in "sectional times"); but doesn’t "pace" come in to your calculations?I think you’ll find I was being mischievous, sir. The point I was attempting to make is that dismissing a methodology you don’t understand as nonsense, is a bit like claiming that foreign languages are just funny noises because you are unable to speak them. I shall refrain from such obtuse humour forthwith.
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Like much else on this thread, Rory, that went completely over Gingertipster’s head.
Doesn’t matter whether it’s an uncontested lead, indeed.
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