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“improved for the application of cash”
I don’t think the O’Learys are big punters so probably stable money. Although they were polite enough to suggest the night before that the rest of us back it too:
“Shanbally Kid (Danny) has lots of experience over shorter trips. We have left the blinkers off today as we felt he might be too keen. With his experience and light weight he could be good each-way value.”
Not quite the full GSI but a gentle steer in the right direction.
tbh I didn’t see anything wrong with Shanbally Kid’s run.
As a hurdler, Shanbally Kid won his novice at 2 1/2 miles prior to Cheltenham; but was a bit free in the Albert Bartlett on his first start at 3m – racing amongst horses. Appeared NOT to stay; weakening badly straight.
Then, jumped poorly on chase debut and returned to hurdling…
Again at 3 miles Shanbally Kid ran well for a long way and was 3rd on the inner rounding the turn for home before again weakening badly after the last hurdle, finishing 8th of the 17 finishers. ie Appeared NOT to stay 3m again…
Logically dropped back in trip for Cheltenham’s 2m5f Coral Cup which paid off, finishing a good 3rd.
So over hurdles Shanbally Kid had gone up in trip from a 2m4f victory and failed at 3m as a novice hurdler… And then went from an apparent non staying 3 miles to an excellent Coral Cup 3rd at 2m5f.
As Green’ rightly says, he’s been an awful jumper of fences,especially when amongst horses in midfield.
Then took a fair hold in first time cheek pieces (even at 2m1f) at Leopardstown in February. Going reasonably well for a long way racing wide tracking the pace before a final mistake pretty much stopped him 3 out, lost ground to finish 30 lengths 10th of 11 finishers.
And then at Cheltenham back at 2 1/2 miles, again cheek pieces, jumped slowly out the back and pulled up on his final run before winning the 3m7f chase at Punchestown.
Without the cheek pieces and not just racing wide but on his own very wide… And being able to race a lot slower (over much further) Shanbally Kid was able – for the first time – to avoid serious errors. Everything he’d done as a hurdler suggested he would not stay 3m7f, hence him originally put in as an outsider. But “not staying” over hurdles can be for reasons that change. Was it due to being inexperienced / pulling too hard. Or (like as a chaser) did he not enjoy being crowded, wasn’t happy and appeared not to stay when the poor finish could be temperament?
After Cheltenham, if Mullins had worked Shanbally Kid at home on his own and he’d put in much better fractions or just been a lot happier… And worked the horse over fences but this time at a much slower pace than in the past – and found he jumped a lot better… I can understand why he’d have been backed down from 25/1 to 15/2. It’s not that they “knew he’d win”, just that they knew he was a good value bet – like Green mentions Mullins saying.
Value Is EverythingI would counter by saying you don’t see many horses barely blowing after 4 miles and looking as though he was ready to go another few miles after the line. I’ve raced watched for over 45 years and you don’t see many horses demolish a large field over that distance without breaking sweat and taking the long way round to boot. It wasn’t that he won, but the ease that he won by that pricked my attention.
The form booked showed tried twice over hurdles at 3 miles (suggesting he didn’t stay) and over fences had only been campaigned over 17 or 20 furlongs. Why did they step down in trip after his hurdle runs if they thought he was a long distance staying chaser in the making?
What I would say is it was a mighty big bushel that light was hiding behind when he he rocked up on Saturday.
“Why did they step down in trip after his hurdle runs if they thought he was a long distance staying chaser in the making?”
Tiger Roll flopped on his two tries over 3 miles when hurdling. Then started chasing over mostly 2-2.5 before he was stepped up to 3 miles in the Munster National and achieved his first chase win comfortably, eased down. He wasn’t well backed – SP was 20-1; but that’s possibly because the Munster National is more competitive- a good early season target worth twice as much as the Punchestown race rather than a last throw of the dice with tired end of season horses.
“Why did they step down in trip after his hurdle runs if they thought he was a long distance staying chaser in the making”?
They didn’t “think he was a long distance staying chaser in the making” – AT THAT TIME – when he ran at Leopardstown and Cheltenham. Everything in his form had indicated he was better at 2 1/2 miles than 3 miles. So – AT THAT TIME – running him in cheek pieces at 2m5f in the “Golden Miller” must have seemed the best chance of him showing the same level of form he did in finishing a good 3rd over pretty much the same trip in the year before’s Coral Cup (which was his best form up to that point). However, he was slow over the first fence which knocked him back to the rear, looked as if he wasn’t enjoying it and his jumping didn’t get much better.
Horses running to form has a lot to do with temperament and the way the particular horse likes to run… And that way can change through a horse’s career. eg Sometimes a horse becomes claustrophobic. If looking at Shanbally Kid at Leopardstown, the jockey was at pains to race wide. He jumped a bit better than usual and ran well for a long way. Still right with them until 3 out – making a bad mistake at the last ditch. Going backwards once amongst horses. ie After Cheltenham I suspect connections must have had a fresh look at Leopardstown and noted he travelled and jumped better when left on his own out wide. Any horse who does not enjoy being in the middle of the pack will not be able to show his form when raced in the middle of the pack. Conversely, if a horse enjoys racing alone then he’ll be able to show much better form racing alone than he would any other way. Hence the big turn around in form. It matters less that Shanbally Kid gave away ground in doing so, because he was able to show much better form than recent starts because of racing alone. The “racing alone” theory also made it possible that he’d been losing ground in his finishes not because of stamina issues at the 3m, but because he hadn’t been enjoying where he raced. Meaning it was worth a try at 3m7f, especially when racing at a slower pace enabled him to jump better.
But the form he ran to at 3m7f over fences is not the stand out performance in his record that you suggest. In fact it is very similar to the form shown when 3rd off a mark of 134 in the Coral Cup over hurdles. So essentially only needed to return to form. Yes, he won easier, but that was because his handicap mark had come down 11 lbs to 123.
Value Is Everything
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