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Eric’s Charm is due to run at Sandown – would think he has an each way chance too.
Merigo for me at Ayr.I like the profile of Eric’s Charm (bar his last-time-out fall) and the fact that he’s a half-brother to Monkerhostin and another crack has a relatively low weight.
I think he fell at the first in the GN, so it shouldn’t have taken too much out of himm and his trainer says he’s fine. Not a bother on him!
Eric’s Charm will be running in The Artist Formerly Known As The Whitbread at Sandown – and he’s well worth a bet, as he loves the place.
I reckon the reason he fell at the first in the National was because his running was so dominant, and his jumping so massive, he didn’t want the other horses to give up. *Nods*
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
It doesn’t augur well for Razor Royale if Paddy Brennan has agreed to ride Meanus Dandy for Nicholls, I suppose young Sam will get the ride now? Although Sam gave HB a good ride in the GN, I’d prefer if Paddy was on board in all honesty. Think everything points to Poker De Sivola except the price; I was impressed by his performance prior to Cheltenham where it took all of Katie Walsh’s persuasion to get him there and it probably took a lot out of the horse, and I think 6/1 is a little short now in such a race, well done to anyone who got him around the 16/1 mark last week!
chief dan george ruled out of this and betfred, due to bloods not being great, will be back next season
vf
I think this is a cracking ew ratio bet
Mobaasher
. Sportingbet, Stan James and Coral only ones going 20-1. Badly hampered at Cheltenham last time, losing momentum and lenghts, but still ran on (ish) to finish fifth. He was the favourite and can deliver this time.
I still fancy the Tony Martin horse if it turns up!! Lochan Lacha by the way,it has form with Oscar Time (2nd Irish National) and Ballytrim but hey what do I know? Apart from the fact its 28 on betfair and I am on at 75.
But Mobaasher I am afraid has the dreaded squiggle in my book cos it regularly in good quality races runs on when the race is all over.I have followed this horse since it finished third to Katchit in the Triumph Hurdle and I think the horse is definitely dodgy!!
Hi raymo61,
Mobaasher I don’t buy that. 26 runs, 5 wins, 5 seconds and 8 places. Last run over 4 miles, he had an amateur jockey, took a hell of a clout a long way out, lost momentum, and still came a close 5th.
To date he has never fallen. We know he gets 4 miles on good/good to soft and has speed. Not sure what more you want but I don’t think you’ll get 20-1!!!
Ok my shortlist includes (a lot stem from last year’s race):
Gone To Lunch – negatives – disappointing since decent 5th in Hennessy, jumping can sometimes lack fluency – positives – will like the ground, 3lb lower than last win, 2nd in this last year so clearly stays – analysis – needs to regain form after some lacklustre efforts but conditions close to ideal, 11/1 seems about right and solid ew bet.
Poker De Sivola – negatives – 7 y/o’s don’t often win marathons like these, highest mark to date, hard race last time and took a bit of persuading – positives, ground looks ideal, good jumper in the main and won over 4 miles, trainer has good record in this race – analysis, conditions ideal, this demands career best but worthy favourite.
Chiaro – negatives – poor last two runs (but seems rather hit or miss), only 3 wins in 21 starts – positives – ground looks ideal, good 4th in this last year and is 1lb lower, Richard Johnson rides – 25/1 looks a good ew bet if forgiving last two performances.
Merigo – negatives – poor last time at Doncaster on ground same as forecast here though has won on good, high mark of 127 to overcome but is out of the handicap here (though better treated) – positives – won over distance and won over course twice, good jockey on board, good ew at 20/1.
My vote goes to Poker De Sivola who has more positives than negatives and deserves to be favourite.
Hi Fryern
You are entitled to your opinion and I hope the horse proves me wrong but I won’t be swayed from thinking its dodgy and the fact that its never fallen can be seen from two viewpoints
1 Its a sound jumper
2 The horse looks after itself and is never out of its "comfort zone".But like I say I am open to eating the humble pie!!
Would suggest that anyone looking at backing Gone To Lunch wait until the race commences. He regularly hits a flat spot and keeps on going. McCoy last year was niggling him for pretty much the entire final circuit last year and it was only really from the 2nd last that he looked like he might get anywhere near the winner.
He’ll probably be a bigger price in running than he is now.
Three more for the pot:
Lothian Falcon off 10st – a Grade 3 winner;
Theatrical Moment – evidently fancied, if only by the bookmakers, is out of an unraced sister to Duck Row by Royal Anthem, so should have plenty of speed. I believe the ground is drying, so likely to be all to the good.
A little ironical if McCoy clocks up another National so soon.Scots Dragoon: an improver under Nick Henderson and looks as if he’s always been aimed at this, has a 7lb claimer – but presumably good – in a 4 mile race. Out of the weghts though, so he’ll be just 3bs well in. Except the last he ran in, he won by 14 lengths under 11.12, and as it was an amateur riders’ race, no penalty.
"He hit the front soon after the second-last still full of running and came right away from exhausted rivals, " was among the RP commentator’s comments.
The fact that it’s trained by Nick Henderson is hardly a disincentive to bet on it, either?
Scots Dragoon is a half brother to Scots Grey; does anyone know what sort of distance he ran over? I know he took Scots Grey up to Kelso a couple of years ago, and I’m pretty sure he won, but I’m not sure of the distance.I just never think of Nicky Henderson as a trainer of staying chasers.
Thats Rhythm and Himalayan Trail for me.
Thats Rhythm was going very well in this last year before falling whereas Himalayan Trail has impressed be this season thus far with his gutsy determination to get to the line in front.
Nice prices too!
I’ll also play a saver on Gone to Lunch (I always back this horse so it’d be sods law if I didnt back it this time!)
How do top weights fare in this race ?
I quite fancy Killyglen and Halcon and wondered if anyone had any info regarding top weights in this race!!Also somebody has tipped me Superior Wisdom which I can’t have on my mind but if it goes and wins and I don’t back it I will never hear the end of it!!
ok ive got –
theatrical moment (ap to do national double)
poker de sivola
gone to lunchvf
Absolutely no chance, but Peter Bowen is only taking one horse to Ayr, No Panic…. he’s got the best strike rate of all the trainers with horses in the race.It’s a long way to drive and I’d kick myself if it won at 66/1 after Always Waining last week.
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