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Saturday 28th OCT

Home Forums Tipping and Research Daily Lays And Plays Saturday 28th OCT

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  • #2356
    cleandries
    Member
    • Total Posts 408

    Newmarket<br>3.45 Sailor King….Its a massive price but as i proved a few weeks ago with Halfwaytoparadise came 2nd @ 66/1….so im NOT put off by the price….though relistically i wouldn’t expect the commentator mention its name….lol<br>4.55 Indian Ridge

    Ayr<br>4.45 Word Perfect

    Wolverhampton<br>7.30 Keyaki & Safari Sunset…..I don’t normally dutch bets but these two get the same rating & i really believe SS is the dark horse in this race dropped  in grade……. Have fun  

    #67570
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Cleandries – there is no horse called Indian Ridge running today – maybe you mean Indian edge who is a n/runner

    The form of Siamese Cat may be over-rated – laid this horse not to win the 1:30 Newm at price of 1.66.

    Final Verse has a good chance if fit enough in the 3:10 Newm – bet to win at 7/2.

    Peter Makin’s horses are runing well and I fancy Blues in the Night to run well in the 4:55 Newm – bet e/way at 7/1

    If I fancy the chances of an outsider then they rarely win but I think that Spiritual Peace is value in the 4:45 Ayr on some of the form shown this season & I’ve bet e/way at odds of 28/1 – will probably finish last!  <br>

    #67571
    cleandries
    Member
    • Total Posts 408

    Ohhh… was there ever/ or  a horse Indian Ridge….I had it on the brain for some reason…..Well atleast i won’t be losing in the 4.55 today….lol

    #67572
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    I’ve done some ratings based on breeding and past runs for the 1:00 Newmarket. The problem with the system I uses is that Arabian Gulf comes up as a near certainty becuase of the breeding which almost certaintly isn’t the case.<br>                    <br>name            rating  implied odds  mcc<br>Arabian Gulf 89     3/1        +3%<br>Mr Napper Tandy 83   6/1           +12%<br>Mutual Friend 83          7/1              -6%<br>The Carlton Cannes 80 8/1             -6%<br>Limbo King 78           9/1                 +2%<br>Silmi 77                     9/1                 -3%<br>Walking Talking 75   10/1                +8%<br>American Spin 75     10/1                  0%<br>Hannicean 75           10/1                 -4%<br>Maraca 72                14/1                  0%<br>Chunky’s Choice 72  14/1                -7%<br>Risque Heights 68    20/1                 -6%<br>Wolf River 68            25/1                -4%<br>Alaghiraar 64            33/1                -8%<br>Spice Bar 63             33/1                 +1%<br>Adversane 62           40/1                 -1%<br>Mumbleswerve 57    66/1                 -2%<br>George Henson 54    100/1              -4%<br>Wester Ross 54        100/1               -1%

    The mcc (not minor counties cricket) represents the confidence behind a horse in the betting markets. When backing a newcomer, market confidence is a big help as it suggests that it is training to its rating if you can see the logistics behind it. Well anyway, based on the current odds, Arabian Gulf is cracking value and Mr Napper Tandy is terrible value. There is lots of other value too with Hannicean, Mutual Friend and Silmi all much bigger than my tissue price.

    2pts win Arabian Gulf @ 10/1 (general)<br>1pt win Silmi @ 50/1 (betoddoreven, TBet, UKBet)<br>1pt ew Mutual Friend @ 40/1 (generally) (I was getting excited when I saw Betoddoreven go 80/1:o  but its only for £6e/w. What a p**s
    take)

    #67573
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Bugger, that didn’t go to plan:angry: . I think Mutual Frined could compensate next time with a bit of luck though.

    Loss 5pts

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