February 3, 2007 at 03:57 #266FlatSeasonLoverMember
- Total Posts 2065
EDIT: This is the 3:15 Sandown for easy reference
Its always me that has to embarrass myself to get any discussion going!:(
Its an 18-runner race, which hopefully means we get paid out first 4 e/w which instantly makes me want to do an e/w bet. In big handicaps like this I work it on a process of elimination and thats the way I will do it today until I have a manageable shortlist.
Kasbah Bliss was fancied to run a big race in the Triumph last year and may well have done so (7/1), had it not hit the deck. Its French form obviously poses a problem as to how good it is, and the fact it is top weight is also a big negative. It is interesting that it steps up in trip today and tries 22f for the first time. It could improve for the trip, but we have to remember it is top weight, and that isn’t ideal for a horse trying a trip that might stretch its stamina. You have to respect the stable though, as they wouldn’t send it over for a canter round, and they may see it as the next Baracouda, but from what I can glean I have to take it on. Ground wise it seems the softer the better. DUMPED
Refinement had a cracking season as a novice, but her wins seem to have come to an end, though she has run right up to form this season. She needs to improve to win though, and this trip and ground doesn’t seem to hold any particular advantage. McCoy takes the ride, which is always a positive, but she isn’t the biggest horse and has too much weight to win this in my opinion. DUMPED
Lord Sam ran its best race for a couple of years last time out when just scraping home. The course and distance hold no fears having won over both and its last performance gives it a squeak even with its big weight, but I am wondering why it has been pulled up on 3 of its last 6 starts. All its runs seem to start with it being held-up, but it appears that sometimes the horse doesn’t fancy it and can put in a sloppy round of jumping. Some will back it on the basis of its last run, but that was on very different ground and it is too inconsistent for my liking. DUMPED
Material World ran a career best last time when holding on from Freetown by a neck, and is certainly a possible on that evidence. It steps down in trip today but that doesn’t look like it will be too much of a problem. So much weight is obviously not ideal, but no obvious reason to rule it out yet. SHORTLIST
If Oscar Park didn’t run last time and you take away the F from its figures it would be about 1/2 the price it is for this race. He seems to be very progressive and has been given plenty of time to get over his mishap. I am never bothered about backing a horse after it has fallen, but would like it to be reflected in the price and it does seem to be. The fact is seems to be gradually climbing up in trip is worrying but it makes the shortlist. SHORTLIST
Royals Darling ran a cracking race last time and aside from one blot on the landscape looks nicely progressive. SHORTLIST
Turtle Soup’s form figures pretty much tell you the story. Well behind Verasi last time and easily passed over. DUMPED
Its difficult to be quite sure what Verasi wants, but its last run means it must be kept in calculations. It is worrying that it doesn’t seem to win very often, but it does seem to like Sandown and is a possible. SHORTLIST
Holland Park you must be joking me. DUMPED
Nathos seems to be completely out of form at the moment and probably couldn’t win even if on song and is overlooked DUMPED
Romany Prince – I’m a fan of the jockey but not of the trainer! In all seriousness, the horse just seems a little bit in and out, as though you have to catch him right. He was pretty useful on the flat, and looks like he needs a trip, which is why he was so impressive in winning over 2m last time. If he improves for the step up in trip as he should, he is a very serious contender. He was lucky to win last time as the runner-up made a horrible mistake at the final fence and had had two very poor runs prior to that, so he isn’t one to trust implicitly, but he certainly has a chance at a big price. SHORTLIST
Arrayou like the favourite is switching between fences and hurdles, but Arrayou doesn’t really have a winning profile. His light weight can only help, and its not inconceivable he could make the frame, but far too inconsistent to entertan backing. (some would say the price justifies the bet) DUMPED
The fact Taranis ran off 151 over fences last time and ran to a RPR of 155 behind Exotic Dancer tells you its pretty useful over fences. On that evidence you might expect it to be top weight, yet it has 10-3 today. It looks the proverbial good thing with Ruby Walsh on board, though there are a couple of negatives. One of them is the trainer form, and the other is the fact it is repeatedly switching between hurdles and chases. You’d be mad not to have it on the shortlist though. SHORTLIST
Whispered Secret won for me last week after I tipped it up, though thanks to some William Hills’ robbery I got 14/1 rather than the 20s or 25s floating about. It faces a different type of challenge today though, and I don’t think it is up to it. There is no room for sentimentality, and with doubts over the trip, reverting to hurdles, and possible fatigue from its last race, i am going to overlook it. DUMPED
Lyes Green is entitled to finish upsides Lord Sam again and is running off a featherweight. However the horse seems hard to win with and doesn’t look upto the job. Unless the ground gets heavy it is overlooked DUMPED
Golden Bay always seems to be at the foot of the handicap, and only has 9-11 today with the jockey’s claim. At first glance its form figures are nothing to write home about but closer inspection suggests it might be well handicapped. Need to have a good look at it. SHORTLIST
Mikado may have problems with the soft ground and ran a stinker last time so is passed over. DUMPED
Accordello is 4lb "wrong" but certainly has a chance. I am just a bit worried that it was outpaced over 25f last time as that does not set a good precendent for todays race over 22f. There is a question mark over the ground too, and when it went up against better horses last time it was turned over so I think its price is too short and am shockingly going to bin it! DUMPED
<br>So the shortlist is:
Material World<br>Oscar Park<br>Royals Darling<br>Verasi<br>Romany Prince<br>Taranis<br>Golden Bay
I have a dataset I use to estimate the horses fitness and form and whether today’s conditions will suit, but it is not compatible with any forums so I can only post the results.
Based on the dataset the raw prices are
Taranis 4/1<br>Royals Darling 11/2<br>Verasi 13/2<br>Oscar Park 7/1<br>Material World 7/1<br>Romany Prince 8/1<br>Golden Bay 9/1
(book to 100%)
However this does NOT take into consideration the chasing form of the horses. Based on its chasing form Taranis is a 2/1 shot. My pet hate is backing favourites in a big runner handicap but I think I have to do it here. I will go for an e/w to accompany it, and based on projected odds and my suggested odds, I think Oscar Park is the call. If it puts a clear round in it has to have a decent chance.
2pts Taranis @ 7/2<br>1pt ew Oscar Park @ 14/1
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 4:12 am on Feb. 3, 2007)February 3, 2007 at 09:19 #27902Malc SmithMember
- Total Posts 61
Each week I confess to a spot of gambling; I do a one line Scoop-6. This morning I was doing quite well selecting the sure-fire winners (oh, deluded soul) until I came across this bugger.
The 3.15 is horrendous to try to find anything from and if it weren’t for the fact that it falls on the Scoop-6 coupon then, unless I were there in Esher, I would ignore this race.
Anyway, I’ve got it all down to two selections at the end of the day.
The first is the second possibility, which FSL has dumped quickly enough; MIKADO. There’s two reasons why I like this one; the first is that the trainer is regarded as running better than form in my book and the the second that this horse has a nice combination of speed rating and low weight.
This, therefore, makes it a contender in my book.
The other one which looks like which will get the nod is VERASI. Won twice here at Sandown so it’s a course winner and isn’t likely to get lost around the Pond Fence area. Has good positive figures for the going and the distance.
I’ll be mulling over these as I pedal into town to the bookies (I can’t seem to get onto the ToteSport site this morning) to put my Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2 bet on, or I could even splash out for a whopping two line entry.
There you go, Verasi or Mikado for me.February 3, 2007 at 09:33 #27903doyleyParticipant
- Total Posts 567
In my book KASBAH BLISS is not badly weighted if connections are considering the World Hurdle. <br>More of a concern is if it can get the distance, if so it will be on the premises whatever the weight issue.
I will be giving NATHOS one last chance to shine…it’s form, altho’ distant, gives it a squeek, and 60s on B/F leads me to a slight interest.
Therefore two E/W punts, KASBAH and NATHOS.
My other interest Material World may not be running.
doyleyFebruary 3, 2007 at 10:04 #27904davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
Kasbah Bliss has top weight for a reason – his form is better than that of anything else in the race. Top weight is of no concern in itself- remeber his trainer has won the race with a top weight in recent years. I certainly anticipate improvement for the step up in trip and he was arguably one of the top 5 juveniles of last year.February 3, 2007 at 10:39 #27905guskennedyMember
- Total Posts 759
Quote: from davidjohnson on 10:04 am on Feb. 3, 2007[br]Kasbah Bliss …was arguably one of the top 5 juveniles of last year.
I would say unarguably one of the top five. Blazing Bailey may have improved this term but he was a consistent and talented yardstick last season and Kasbah Bliss gave him weight and a beating at Sandown. It’s worth bearing in mind that Duchene was a 5lb claimer at that time but couldn’t claim his allowance and if you add that back Kasbah has given Blazing Bailey 8lbs and a length and a half beating with the useful Twist Magic forty four lengths away in third. It reads very well in view of Blazing Bailey’s subsequent run in the Triumph when six lengths third to Detroit City at levels. Kasbah Bliss fell in that race when travelling well, better than he had done in the early stages at Sandown when the ground was softer.
Kasbah Bliss has a perfectly reasonable handicap mark today. My main worry for him is the ground.February 3, 2007 at 10:41 #27906SwallowCottageMember
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Excellent write up by FSL. This is obviously a difficult race to pick the winner -<br>Romany Prince and Material world are n/runners.<br>Taranis doesn’t look much value & Paul states that he may possibly need the run. <br>Verasi likes the course but may be better on heavy ground & has never won off a hcap mark this high.<br>I don’t rate the value of the form shown by Refinement.
Apologies to FSL for placing my curse on one of his selections but my choice here is Oscar Park who has recently switched stables to David Arbuthnot ( better known for training runners on the flat but a good trainer ). Oscar’s run at Newbury was a good one and the form looks decent. Can run well after a rest and horses sometimes improve when moving to a new trainer. I’ve had a moderate e/way bet on him at 14’s. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
(Edited by SwallowCottage at 10:43 am on Feb. 3, 2007)February 3, 2007 at 10:47 #27907clivexMember
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Im keen on Royals Darling. That was agood (and i suspect unexpected run) last time and 4lb rise after frst run of season is not the end of the world
Realtively unexposed but worth noting that he was favorite to beat Detroit City a year agoFebruary 3, 2007 at 11:18 #27908AnonymousInactive
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I agree with Clivex.<br>Royals Darling beat his better fancied stablemate lto,impressing his trainer enough to put chasing on hold, and he also thinks he will improve for that run.<br>The stiffer trip should also be in his favour, and receiving a stone from the Frenchman looks the one to beat imo.
(Edited by reet hard at 11:22 am on Feb. 3, 2007)February 3, 2007 at 11:38 #27909Shadow LeaderMember
- Total Posts 763
Royals Darling for me with Oscar Park as a saver (although I’d be more confident were the name in the trainer column still C Tinkler!!!)
Swallow – Oscar Park hasn’t so much as switched boxes! Arbo is simply George Ward’s newly appointed trainer in his set up at Uplands.
(Edited by Shadow Leader at 12:40 pm on Feb. 3, 2007)February 3, 2007 at 11:45 #27910seabirdParticipant
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A worry for you Royals Darling fans is that Monsieur Luc’ ‘Arvey went for this one on Radio 5 Live this morning!;)
ColinFebruary 3, 2007 at 11:47 #27911apracingParticipant
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<br>All this learned debate is going to look very silly if the lady chasing the Scoop6 bonus pot comes up with the winner.
According to the Post, her shortlist is Lord Sam (because she has a neice called Sam in Jersey), Whispered Secret (part of her winning line last week), Taranis (I’ve heard of Ruby Walsh) and Material World (like the Madonna song).
The knowledge that this approach produced all six winners last week on a single Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£2 line is enough to make you weep – why do we bother!
APFebruary 3, 2007 at 11:49 #27912SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
Shadow – Thanks for your advice re trainer – I did realise this but sometimes new training methods etc can improve a horse’s performance which is what I meant in this case ( I should have made this clearer ). Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ÂFebruary 3, 2007 at 15:25 #27913davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
Well done FSL – I backed Whispered Secret on the nose myself so disappointed but that’s the way it goes.February 3, 2007 at 15:34 #27914FlatSeasonLoverMember
- Total Posts 2065
Ouch sorry davidbrady, didn’t think it could do the job after last week but got mighty close.
Interesting to see Kasbah Bliss come there cruising only to fade back into 4th, still am not convinced abouts its stamina.
Got it wrong with Oscar Park totally. Took the running up but went backwards and Taranis a little lucky to hold on, so I am happy but probably a bit lucky!:biggrin:
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