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Went onto Oddscecker this mornign expecting Noble Prince to be no bigger than 5/1 for this, amazed that there’s 6, 7 and even 8/1 available! His form this year has been top notch if you think Big Zeb is as good as ever, which I do. He looked to have Big Zeb beaten in the Dial-a-Bet but he was done for speed on the run in when Big Zeb hit top gear. This has been his target all year and it’s impossible to see him out of the three all being well.
Wherever Noble Prince finishes you would think Realt Dubh would be in the vicinity. They met three times last season, with Realt Dubh coming out on top on all three occasions. The first time at Leopardstown over Christmas perhaps Noble Prince was not at his best, and Realt Dubh ran out an easy winner. Next time only a head separated them, and then Noble Prince fell in the Powers Gold Cup when it looked like a serious battle was about to ensue. Realt Dubh is a real battler and if both got to the race fit and well then I wouldn’t be able to separate them. 20/1 for this fella is tempting but I’d like to see him on a racecourse soon.
Now Rubi Light has been priced up proper, the value horse in the race is Great Endeavour. He’s been far too judged on his last run in the December Gold Cup, which should be completely disregarded considering what he’d just been through, with regards to the Paddy Power and the Hennessy. This is a classy horse that loves this course and distance, seriously improving and will be fresh as a daisy come the festival. He’s still going at 14/1 and I think that smacks of value. Definite e/w value at least!
Interesting trend for the race;
11 of the 12 winners and runner’s-up had won at Cheltenham before(including all 6 winners).
6 of the 6 winners were rated between 152-157 beforehand.
Irish trained horses are 0-16.
Makes interesting reading for the 157 rated, English trained, course winner Great Endeavour
Albertas Run was rated 162 going into his first win and 166 going into the second, Our Vic was rated 165.
J’y Vole 3rd (should’ve been 2nd), Rubi Light 3rd, Schindler’s Hunt 3rd, Mossbank 2nd, Knight Legend 4th, Rathgar Beau 3rd.
The Irish probably have a very similar record in the Gold Cup over the past 5 years, but you wouldn’t rule an Irish horse out of that because of its history.
This race is 6 years old.
Also have to remember that for the first 3 years of its existence it was a Grade 2, and Grade 1 winners carried penalties.
Just crazy making trends for a race that’s only existed in its current state for 3 runnings.
As for the Cheltenham form, yup, fair enough. How many non-novice Graded races over 2m 5f are run in the UK/Ireland away from Cheltenham?
I’ve got 25/1 on Rubi Light but I was looking at the betting earlier today and it’s just not a race I could even consider touching in its current state. Impossible to rule any of the top 15 in the betting out. Just insane how competitive this race is likely to be. Of that top 15, how many of them are older than 8? 2? 3?
My idea of Great Endeavour is that he’s not quite up to this standard. The early season big handicaps weren’t of a great standard this year and he won the Paddy Power off 10-3. They weren’t full of exciting second-season chasers like they sometimes are.
The form’s a long time gone, but 2L 2nd behind Poquelin getting 16lbs. He’s rated 15lbs better now than he was when he ran in that. Leaves him with buckets to find.
I see your point that at level weights he may have plenty to find Zarks, but I do see him as highly progressive. He’s been one I’ve had a close eye on for a few years now and I believe this is a step up he’s worthy of.
I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree until the festival buddy.
One thing I would definitely agree with you on though is how tight the race looks, very tough to call right now.
If your going to have a bet in this ante post then the value has to be last years favourite Poquelin who went off at 2/1 but currently available at 25/1. He doesn’t appear to have any alternative targets so looks a sound each way investment.
Somersby is not a definite runner and is poor value on his win to run ratios
Captain Chris is heading for the Gold Cup, would challenge for favouritism if diverted here.
Great Endeavour is a good deal better than he has shown so far, he was all over the winner of the Hennessy until he ran out of petrol in the home straight, he has a touch of class, is only 8 and still improving. Will probably trade at half his current odds on the day.
Noble Prince is a definite runner and I can’t see him finishing out of the first 3.
Medermit has failed to win in 7 attempts round Cheltenham, cannot se him breaking his duck in a race as competitive as this.
Rubi Light finished 3rd last year but will probably trade at similar odds on the day so no value antepost wise.
Albertas Run will be 11 and may run in the Gold Cup and Kalahari King will also be 11 and cannot fancy him on age grounds.
Kauto Stone has any amount of improvement in him is still only 6 and has already won £600,000 in prize money.
So for Antepost bets the value has to be Poquelin @ 25/1, Kauto Stone @ 12/1 and Great Endeavour @ 14/1
Sea Pigeon,
Nice post. I have done medermit but didn’t realise he has still to win at the course, I just hope he sneaks a place.
I wouldn’t have somersby as much as i like him because i think he needs small fields to win. Value gone there too.
I have been convinced after watching endeavours hennessy again and wil have a dip at 14s now. Also like your pointers for Kauto stone, i am not sure if he has ever raced over a course with undulations like cheltenham and think he looks a little light framed so will avoid him.
With Poquelin, ok ew shout but i can’t see him winning, he couldn’t last year so why now? this looks a hotter renewal.
Noble prince i’ll back on the day, he improves for better ground.
I agree that Poquelin is no value to some extent. Seems to be a better horse in the winter. Whether that’s because he’s fresher, I’m not sure, but I doubt he’d be good enough anyway. He’s been on the go now since he was 3 and I’m not sure how much there is left in the tank now. Unplaced favourite last year behind Rubi Light anyway so how he’d reverse form I don’t know.
Is Noble Prince really a cert for a place? Looking at his form today, I can’t say I’m too impressed. Wishfull Thinking and Loosen My Load have only won a handicap each since then. He beat Jigalo, who’s a tree, on his seasonal reappearance, and yesterday’s run wasn’t great either.
Noble prince a different entity over 2m4f and good ground. I am not too fussed about how the runners have done since they were decent novices that haven’t progressed whereas noble has run some ok races over inadequate distance and ground.
Now! would be a good time to be taking the 10/1 about Riverside Theatre
Lol good job HGM. He clearly does’t like Cheltenham, but you keep believing in Nicky
I wouldn’t say that. I backed him for the Arkle and he came absolutely flying up that hill at the end. Must’ve made up about 15 lengths because 3 out he was 50 yards behind the leaders.
Now! would be a good time to be taking the 10/1 about Riverside Theatre
Lol good job HGM. He clearly does’t like Cheltenham, but you keep believing in Nicky
Geez you’re a genius.
He’s ran there once in his life over a trip way too short for him, won by a horse who went on to win the QMCC, while he stepped up in trip finished 2nd to Long Run in the King George and went on to win the Grade 1 Betfair Chase when he flew home over 2m5f miles at Ascot winning by 10 lengths.
The’re is absolutely nothing to suggest he does not like Cheltenham and if anything the fact it is run over 2m5f on a really stiff track and he stays 3 miles the race is perfect for him.
Do try and think before you post old bean
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