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GDC has beat him over 3m twice and although Cheltenham suits Fact to File hes at a disadvantage here against a horse that is the best Gold Cup winner since Kauto Star
Next year will depend on Galopin Des Champs regressing. Ballyburn hardly enchanced his own chances so FTF will be in line to take over if GDC does indeed regressCharles Darwin to conquer the World
I wouldn’t dismiss the browns winner this year , doesn’t seem to be getting the p!audits he should
“Why?
They’re two different horses. Just because one didn’t handle the course doesn’t mean that the other won’t. And Banbridge has won at Cheltenham more than once before”.
My thoughts exactly Glad’.
It was always going to be asking a lot of IEF to be effective over this undulating track given the way he races… Although he went out so quickly it might be more about his blood vessel problem. For whatever reason IEF was a long way below his best, has nothing to do with Banbridge’s chance in the Gold Cup…Although when Banbridge doesn’t stay 3m2f someone will be saying the form of the King George is crap.
Value Is EverythingFTF may well take on GDC in the same races next season before Cheltenham to see if he improves past GDC.
Willie has just said Fact To File would’ve given Galopin Des Champs a massive race this year and is now a Gold Cup contender.
He’s an amazing trainer but the guy really rubs me the wrong way. That wasn’t a fit Fact To File at Leopardstown at the DRF.
He pulled both Un De Sceaux and Annie Power out of the Champion Hurdle a few years back to ensure one of his own wouldn’t interfere with Hurricane Flys 3rd attempt.
If you look at the KG only one horse has come out and won since … iffy , Banbridge ran a horror in the Ryanair last year , how does Banbridge win when he was all out to beat a non stayer in the KG ?
“He couldn’t even beat Grangeclare West a few weeks back”
Grangeclare West is a grade 1 winner over 3 miles and is going to win the Grand National. I hope anyway- did the related double of F2F for this and GCW for the GN last night.
An end to end gallop at the ideal trip was the perfect race scenario for FTF to produce his best – Mullins talking nonsense about him being a Gold Cup horse, he didn’t see out the trip over 3m at Leopardstown twice because he didn’t (and won’t) settle well enough off the slower gallop, so he has no chance in a Gold Cup over 2f further where even great 3m horses have found it a step too far.
Last year’s Brown Advisory was run very sedately (slow by 36.82s) and he beat staying types purely for speed and if you look at his family, it is all form from 2m2f-2m6f. Only way he beats GDC over 3m is at Punchestown where GDC always gets beat after his Cheltenham exertions
His program looks tailor made for him with the John Durkan, King George, Ryanair and then maybe either the Melling Chase and/or Punchestown the obvious races – if we didn’t have the Ryanair, I think he would have a better chance of winning a QMCC than the Gold Cup.
Sky bet have him 5/2 Ryanair
6/1 Gold Cup
I’ll wait for the win any race as Mullins bingo isn’t worth playing at those pricesCharles Darwin to conquer the World
“Although he (IEF) went out so quickly it might be more about his blood vessel problem.”
Never back a bleeder. I haven’t got much right this week but that is what swayed me to Fact To File.
“If you look at the KG only one horse has come out and won since … iffy , Banbridge ran a horror in the Ryanair last year , how does Banbridge win when he was all out to beat a non stayer in the KG “?
HDLG,
The vast majority of runners in any race do not run to form… And even some winners and placed horses do not run to their best.
In the King George only two horses ran to their best, hence why there was 10 lengths back to the third. But the fact Banbridge and Il Est Francais were so far clear means (even allowing for the rest running below form) the first and second’s performances can be rated well. The time backs it up too.
Today was Il Est Francais’s first race since and ran in a totally different race. Banbridge has not run since. A lot of the other runners were not suited by the conditions.
L’Homme Presse is better (or more consistent) left-handed and proved that by subsequently WINNING the Cotswold. Then ran poorly right-handed again.
The Real Whacker – hasn’t run since. Neither has Spillanes Tower, Juntos Ganamos and General En Chef.
Corbetts Cross is best with a greater test of stamina than 3m on dead ground around a sharp track (Kempton) provided… And has run since (for some reason) ran once on Good ground at even shorter, 2m4f.
Bravemansgame is gone at the game. Has run once since, in the Denman and predictably beaten. Although not beaten anywhere near as far as in the King George.
Envoi Allen was beaten before he was unseated in the King George. Had won the Ladbroke Champion Chase the race before, at Down Royal on reappearance. Envoi Allen is best fresh and /or best at only two courses, Down Royal or Cheltenham. Good reasons why Kempton would not have suited him, coming fairly soon after Down Royal and a different track. Ran well today in his first race since when 3rd back at Cheltenham in the Ryanair.
Grey Dawning had a very hard race in the Betfair and is another raced mainly (or is best) left-handed and best racing prominently. Held up at Kempton, made an early mistake and eventually pulled up. Since then, has run once going back left handed – and WON easily at Kelso.
So the King George runners have won two races not just the one you claim. Which isn’t bad considering how many races we are talking about and the conditions of those races. If just backing the horses who were running in races that suited them you’d have had three bets, won two (albeit @ 4/5 and 5/6) and the loser was placed @ an each way price of 12/1.
But if you want to just judge races in a simplistic way…
“Iffy”, my arse.
Value Is EverythingV impressive, but another Allaho/Vautour; further evidence how the the Gold Cup has been diluted. Appreciate GDC has beaten him comprehensively this year, but as we’ve seen this week, anything can happen, and especially in a 3 mile chase
Sorry Ginge 2 winners , to be fair one was pretty much a match , if you want to say that’s it’s a strong KG then go ahead , I don’t , the French horse was well beaten today , Banbridge was well beaten in the Ryanair last year , there’s a real question of him staying , how do you see him being able to beat GDC , I reckon he will do well to be 3rd of 4th
FTF at 8 is only a year younger than GDC and there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that he will be a better horse over the Gold Cup trip as a 9 yr old and he will need to be an infinitely better horse over that trip to get near GDC, who has outstayed much stronger stayers than FTF to win his two Gold Cups.
Yes I get that ‘out of the norm’ things can happen in races (as this week has ably shown us) but that isn’t a common thing and rightly or wrongly (wrongly in my opinion) we do have the G1 Ryanair Chase at the intermediate distance of 2m4½f that gives those horse that fall between two stools another more viable option.
That trip is clearly FTF’s optimum given that his best two performances (today and in the 2m3½f John Durkan) have both been at or around that trip and lets be honest, JP is the type of owner that if he truly felt that FTF was capable of beating GDC over 3m2f he would have been running in the Gold Cup. The fact that he has subsequently supplemented a stouter stayer (Inothewayurthinkin) into the line up with his other strong stayer Corbetts Cross is rather telling to me.
I really can’t see any chaser (both current and those coming up from the novice division) being able to lay a finger on the FTF that showed up today and quite clearly connections felt this was the best race for him especially given that it was always going to be run to suit his free going style of racing.
To me a bigger question to answer wouldn’t be could he be a Gold Cup horse but that could he drop down in trip and be a Champion Chase horse instead?
I know JP has Jonbon but…..well we all saw how well that went yesterday and FTF looks a much more natural/safer jumper at speed round Cheltenham.
Going down in distance could happen. The Champion Chase is one of the few races at the festival in which JP McManus has not owned the winner. I believe he wants to complete the set, so could he tell Mullins to run Fact To File in the race?
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