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TheTinMan87.
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December 29, 2024 at 16:21 #1716985
I don’t take any notice of Points as far as stamina goes, HDLG. They’re just not the same.
…Yes, FTF has run and won at 3 miles half a furlong. But not 3m2f+…
And although the Brown Advisory was run on very soft ground, the pace was quite slow. So not the greatest test of stamina it could’ve been. Although his Cheltenham performance was very good, tbh considering what he’d done before as a novice… I was a little disappointed he didn’t win by more than 3 3/4 lengths. It’s still very possible a strongly run 2m5f on very soft would suit him better than a strongly run 3m on very soft… let alone at 3m2f+.Value Is EverythingDecember 29, 2024 at 19:50 #1717010As well as the stamina considerations, the Ryanair is just a much easier race to win and I mean that with the greatest of respect to the likes of Envoi Allen and Protektorat who’ve won it lately, lovely horses but probably grade 1.5 horses, better than grade 2 for sure but not in Galopin’s class. Does JP care that much about winning a Ryanair though? I suspect not and he’ll still go for Gold.
December 31, 2024 at 12:41 #1717134Depends on their next runs. If taking each other on again and FTF is a bit free / looks as if he barely stays 3m (like in the Savills)… I can’t see them going for a Gold Cup, it would be pointless even trying.
If FTF challenges GDC and remains strong at the finish – even if beaten – he’ll go Gold Cup unless ground conditions place the emphasis on stamina.
I certainly wouldn’t back FTF ante-post for the Gold Cup.
I had £4’s worth matched at 19 for Banbridge in the Ryanair – before the King George. If it is no softer than proper good-soft imo has a good chance. But having another bet now, whilst both his and FTF’s participation is up in the air – plus going concerns…- Can’t really go in again at the current price. I’d rather take much shorter odds once a lot more is known (or at least probable).
Value Is EverythingJanuary 11, 2025 at 21:48 #1717922Same here GT, Banbridge my main idea of the winner of this, but I’ll have to resign myself to shorter odds. Was going to bet him for this and Gold Cup, but decided to keep things tidy, and just wait till the day.
I’ll almost certainly be following Gladiateur with Jungle Boogie, while I keep going back to Lemons shout at 25’s for Protektorat. Not really a horse I’ve bothered with before, but do like the 25’s
Throw in Conflated at 66’s as well. 11yo now, but adequate third last year, and I think he’ll come here again
Last but not least, Springwell Bay. Blown away by him last week, and he’s the one I’m closest to betting right now at 50’s
Messy, so no bet yet, for all I could bet any of Jungle Boogie, Conflated, or Springwell Bsy right now
Edit – Decided to bet Springwell Bay, I just loved that last run
Springwell Bay 50’s EW
January 18, 2025 at 18:10 #1718351Well Saint Sam didn’t get an entry. Pah! Hope he’s ok.
Blood Destiny 66-1 ew
Coughing after Punchestown so I’m ignoring that. Nice form with Spillane’s Tower though. Runs tomorrow in the horse+jockey.
January 19, 2025 at 07:12 #1718372Spillans form looks iffy after the KG though
January 19, 2025 at 15:29 #1718416Do we think Energumene might come here? I’d be half interested in him. I don’t believe the standard is particularly high unless Fact To File comes here. Lots of similar sort of horses. I think he’ll stay now hes a bit older. No chance of reversing Jonbon form unless its borderline unraceable.
January 19, 2025 at 15:44 #1718421Tinman, he may be a little old at 11 to win this and there maybe easier options elsewhere.
January 19, 2025 at 16:03 #1718425Record of horses older than 9 in the three open grade 1 chases…
Rynair Chase – 0/15
Gold Cup – 0/15
Champion Chase – 2/15 (10 yr olds)January 20, 2025 at 11:24 #1718479How big a sample was it though, Mike?
How many 11 year olds have run in the Ryanair, Gold Cup and Champion Chase?…How many races they’ve had also imo makes a difference in how likely they are of showing good form… And how good they were at their very best. Energumene maybe an 11 year old, but has had less racing than Jonbon who’s two years younger.
Sprinter Sacre was one of those 10 year olds.
Sprinter Sacre’s 2016 victory is often shown on the TV because it was such an emotional comeback. But the actual form shown was nothing like what he achieved in 2013. ie He was on the downgrade but because he started from such an elevated best, he could still win Grade 1’s…And Energumene at his very best was a well above average Grade 1 winner.
It is not absolutely certain Energumene is on the downgrade yet. Probable yes, but not certain. It was only one race… And even the form he showed behind Jonbon is good enough to put him in the picture for a Ryanair.
That said, many horses of any age who’ve had a bad injury do not come back as good as they were… And although a winner at 2 1/2 miles on chase debut, will he be as good over this trip in Grade 1 company?
Value Is EverythingJanuary 20, 2025 at 12:36 #1718481The ‘how many have tried/how big a sample’ argument does sometimes come up and that is usually from those who want to or have backed 10 year olds plus in one of them races. I’m not saying they definitely won’t win but they tend not to, and it might be worth backing another one of a more appropriate age, if able to, to give one self more of a chance.
The two 10 year olds that did win the Champion Chase, Sprinter Sacre was a bit special, and the race that Special Tiara won, unfortunately for the hot favourite Douvan, he got injured in the race and had 12 months off.
January 20, 2025 at 16:10 #1718493“is usually from those who want to or have backed 10 year olds plus in one of them races”.
No, it’s because the number of horses who’ve run in those races is obviously important.
Because it should be judged not on how many won, but by EXPECTATION. ie The percentage of the race made up of 8 and 9 year olds will be significantly greater than 10 and 11 year olds as well as 7, 6 and even 5. Therefore it stands to reason 9 year olds will win more races than 10 year olds.Statistics can be used well, but not if you take no notice of percentages.
Value Is EverythingJanuary 20, 2025 at 16:58 #1718494You’ll back another one in the race, one that isn’t ‘an oldie’, it’ll win, and you will pat yourself on the back ;o)
January 20, 2025 at 17:30 #1718499Why only go back 15 years?
The trouble with some statistics is they go back to a year that suits the person’s pre-conceived ideas.Value Is EverythingJanuary 20, 2025 at 17:51 #1718500Would it surprise you Mike, that even in the time frame you use (the last 15 years)…
A greater percentage of 10 year old runners won both the Champion Chase and Ryanair than the percentage of 8 year old runners.
In the Champion Chase:
2 of the 16 ten year old runners won the race, a 12.5% strike rate.
3 of the 36 eight year old runners won the race, an 8.3% strike rate.In the Ryanair:
1 of the 17 ten year old runners won, a 5.9% strike rate. Not the 0% you claim (Alberta’s Run).
3 of the 57 eight year old runners won, a 5.3% strike rate.It is also interesting that if going back another 5 years (20 in total) to the actual beginning of the Ryanair:
3 of the 27 ten year old runners won, an 11.1% strike rate.
compared to exactly the same:
6 of the 54 nine year old runners won, an 11.1% strike rate.
whereas only 4 of the 65 eight year old runners won, a 6.2% strike rate.When using statistics the number of runners needs to be taken into account, otherwise the statistics of how many winners each age group has is meaningless.
Value Is EverythingJanuary 21, 2025 at 10:07 #1718534Added Ginnys Destiny here up to 70’s. Think he would have to run well at weekend, and run well to justify it, but thought the odds were ok
Cashed out Springwell Bay. Every intention of betting him again, but his Brown Advisory entry means it makes sense for now. Love this horse, and may bet him for both races, and I think he could be a Gold Cup horse next year.
Ginny’s Destiny 70’s
February 2, 2025 at 13:48 #1719639Fact To File will run here now, surely ? A stiff 3 seems to test him so the Gold Cup would be beyond him
Unless he just waits for Aintree when GDC will be in his stable
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