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Chezza thinks the 5/1 NRNB Blue Lord with William Hill isn’t too bad.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"All that these NRNB bookies can do is try to price the markets as though the race were taking place tomorrow. The only thing they cannot account for is the possibility of something sluicing in between now and the big day. I’ve been right through Hills prices and can see nothing of value bar what I posted yesterday (and that has now been diluted).
The other thing to keep at front of mind is the awful value in current EW terms. On the day, 5 to 8 places will be available in many races, and the current prices, bar the above scenario, will likely be the same as they are now, or better.
He’s not the most obvious one for this, but nrnb does help, but I’ve taken 33-1 ew for Fanion D’Estruval
I also think that 25-1 is a good ew price for Envoi Allen if he can shake off that terrible Kempton run
Jungle Boogie predictably AWOL, so already on a loser here. He was 340’s the day before the entries were published, and I even took that, for all it seemed stupid.
Might as well keep the stupidity going, and I’ve taken the 16’s on Galopin Des Champs. Think he’s got to hit a brick wall at Leopardstown, and his run at Punchestown suggested that that won’t be happening.
Also looking at Janidil, Envoi Allen, and Fury Road as EW alternatives.
Galopin Des Champs 16’s
I don’t think we’re going to see Allaho now. There’s no mention of any upcoming entries and the likelihood of him being a worthwhile bet if he turns up in this first time out for the season is zero.
But how far down the list do you have to look before you can find one that’s likely to be aimed at this?
Pic D’orhy? Imperial Alcazar? Midnight River?
They’ve confirmed he’s going straight there
Blue lord wins if allaho isn’t there for me
The rest are either regressive or useless
Will he be here , thought it was minor niggles yet not been sighted all season , nothing against Blue Lord but he’s a poor substitute
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“The last time I spoke to Willie, I think we’re still hopeful of him coming back for a run before Cheltenham and then Cheltenham itself,” said.
“He had six weeks off and that is coming to a close soon, but with all these things you’ve got to be realistic and it is probably 50-50. I’d love to see him have another tilt at the Ryanair and try to win it for a third time.”
That was 10/12- so if we take it that he was back around Christmas, he wouldn’t be ready until February time for that first run back.
Wouldn’t be ideal for Allaho to go off no prep run given the type of horse he is; however, it’s WPM and we know he’s very good at doing it. I wouldn’t be shocked if he appears after the DRF meetign with Allegorie De Vassy for a school round- as WPM mentioned for ADV.
Blue Lord in the context of the Ryanair is a bloody good substitute. Must be horrible to have an improving 167 chaser as a substitute.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I hope Fakir Doudaries takes his chance without Allaho or first time out Allaho. Blue Lord got his 167 rating from his 2 mile run. Still has to prove his stamina at the top table to me after hanging on against Tornado Flyer. Fakir has been a consistent mid 160s horse over 2 and a half. Both horses are 8. Calling him either regressive or useless as FF91 describes seems harsh to me.
Yep Mike true, but to be fair to Blue Lord it was 2m4 1/2 on soft/heavy with a stiff finish on his reappearance. Tornado Flyer is a good horse also?
I’ve actually always wanted Blue Lord over further than 2miles. I can see why he’s been raced over 2m quite often, but his debut and even his run vs Bob early in his career made me want him over further.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Fakir had a hard race on Sunday , he,s got a great attitude but will they look at going to Aintree instead ? , Blue Lord is a decent horse but if Allaho doesn’t turn up I can see some of the GC field heading here , if that happens I can see some battle hardened horses being to much , he,s runs at chelt haven’t been great either
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
“will they look at going to Aintree instead?”
Usually when an in form Allaho goes to Cheltenham.
I couldn’t resist a little bit of Angels Breath e/w 100-1 WH NRNB
I thought he ran very well for a long way against Pic D’Orhy, given that he’d been off for 3 years! He was also well supported on the day, perhaps because the non-mug Sam Thomas had entered him for this as well as the Gold Cup?
If he comes on sufficiently for the run to run here, other than a firing Allaho, I’m struggling to confidently name three to beat him – especially at that price!
Can anyone help me with my memory of Paul Nicholls once saying Cheltenham wouldn’t suit Pic D’orhy?
I seem to remember him saying he wasn’t going to send him there years ago.
Looking at his form he’s largely been kept to flat tracks since he ran in the 2019 triumph so that would back that assertion up.
He’s running out his skin at present and my idea of the winner next week in the ascot chase and the Ryanair distance is perfect for him.
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