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How many of those were rated 166 and ran the times Coneygree has the last twice?
I’ve mentioned already it’s another flawed stat….Trabolgan and Bobs Worth both finished placed in the Feltham and won the RSA….and a few have gone close….
Judge Coneygree and his chances in this on what he has done already and that he will no doubt improve again like he has done every run…..don’t judge his chances on horses that have failed in the past for whatever reason…
I’m judging Coneygree the same way I judge all horses when I look the stats. For example only 1 horse has won the RSA in recent years undefeated as a chaser. Denman. However, if what the handicapper feels is true (that Coneygree is at or above that level) then even a stat fanatic like me has to agree that Coneygree probably wins. All of the main RSA protagonists have stats to overcome. Its just that TYM and Don Poli fall down on several. Great race in prospect – of that there’s no doubt.
Previous Years of the Feltham,
2013 Annacotty RSA 20/1 8th (only a handicapper)
2012 Dynaste JLT 11/8fav 2nd (ran in another race, doubtful stayer)
2011 Grands Crus RSA 6/5fav (did not run between races and became disappointing with physical problems)
2010 No race
2009 Long Run RSA 11/4 3rd (took a hold and lost 2nd last stride)
2008 Bredsbreeze Non-runner (Fell in Reynoldstown and not seen again as novice)
2007 Joe Lively RSA 7/1 6th (although 7/1, proved he wasn’t good enough)
2006 Ungaro RSA 11/1 6th (finished behind Denman, proved not good enough)
2005 Darkness RSA 11/2 3rd (won Feltham at Sandown, not good enough)
2004 Ollie Magern Non-runner (Got up in last strides to beat subsequent RSA winner Trabolgan short head)
2003 Strong Flow Non-runner (was good enough, won Hennessey as novice before Feltham but did not race again for over a year and then failed to reproduce his best)
2002 Jair Du Cochet RSA 4/1 2nd (beaten 1 ¾ lengths, almost)
2001 Maximise RSA 9/1 6th (not good enough)
2000 Bacchanal Non runner (was good enough, did not run)
1999 Gloria Victis GC (was good enough, ran in Gold Cup where falling fatally when looking booked for a place)
1998 Lord Of The River RSA 11/2 2nd (2nd but well beaten by Looks Like Trouble)
1997 Fiddling The Facts RSA 9/2 Pulled Up (essentially not good enough, blundered badly in Florida Pearl’s RSA)
1996 Djeddah RSA 100/30 fav 3rd (proved not good enough)
1995 No Race
1994 Brownhall Non-runner (Fell fatally between races)Feltham varies in quality over the years
7 of the last 18 runnings of the Feltham did not go on to the RSA, including some of the better ones, Dynaste went elsewhere, Strong Flow injured, Bacchanal injured, Gloria Victis would’ve won had he gone there instead of the Gold Cup.
Of the better horses that did run: Grands Crus went wrong, Long Run ran ok to be 3rd (almost 2nd) after taking a hold, Jair Du Cochet went close,
Trabolgan only lost the Feltham final strides before winning the RSA. Bobs Worth was also beaten in Feltham (wrong way around)Like all races, might often be different ground, time of year, bit more of a test of stamina, trainer in worse form.
Basically the poor run of Feltham winners in RSA looks a coincidence.
Although I believe Coneygree will go for the Gold Cup.Value Is EverythingWell. with all these trends against Conygree,no winner of the Feltham, no novice has won the Gold cup blah, blah, blah then the connections of the horse should do the right thing and not run at cheltenham at all.
Whether Conygree wins or not stats and trends are for people who can’t read form.
TBH I’m not taking the Feltham thing too literally this year. Its traditionally thought that its won by a different sort of horse, flat track etc. But Coneygree has won at Chelts this year. More of a worry is that it hasn’t had a ‘proper’ race, ie it hasn’t had to fight hard to win its novice chases thus far. I don’t like backing horses in this race only to find out they buckle when being tested for the first time. Of those that have a defeat, Southfield Theatre appeals most to me.
And stats and trends do take account of form, so the above statement is a bit of a generalisation.
More of a worry is that it hasn’t had a ‘proper’ race, ie it hasn’t had to fight hard to win its novice chases thus far.
What?
Coneygree has proven himself a battler, runs the others in to the ground; including against established chasers, not just novices. If there is one horse you know will “fight hard” it is Coneygree.Value Is EverythingSurely that must be about Kings Palace and not Coneygree?
As Kings Palace hasn’t stepped outside of novice company and not really been asked a question….
Coneygree will battle all day long….but when he comes to the last 10 lengths clear he won’t need to do any battling…just come home the same he has the last twice…
Coneygree for me ! I like the way this horse goes about his business.
Listening to Martin Pipe though , you’d think King’s palace was in the winner’s enclosure already.
Mr. Pipe snr reckons King’s Palace is a good thing for this race .Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
How many of those were rated 166 and ran the times Coneygree has the last twice?
I’ve mentioned already it’s another flawed stat….Trabolgan and Bobs Worth both finished placed in the Feltham and won the RSA….and a few have gone close….
Judge Coneygree and his chances in this on what he has done already and that he will no doubt improve again like he has done every run…..don’t judge his chances on horses that have failed in the past for whatever reason…
The stat is about winners who have failed, not ones who were beaten and then won the second leg. Trabolgan only went down a short head in the Feltham in any case, and Bobs Worth was said by Barry Geraghty to have been out of sorts when he ran in the Feltham and that this had as much to do with his performance than the much vaunted reasoning that the horse can’t go right-handed.
That brings us to another potential reason that the stat may be exist, ie the different configuration and degree of stamina required for each. It is not like a mystery statistic that exists without any potential reason for it and I don’t have access to what the relative ground conditions were for the 19 examples where a horse who had won the race at Christmas time then failed to repeat the feat nearer Easter.
Sorry if that’s a bit blah, blah, blah for some people, but a question was asked of me an I thought it fair to reply to it.
If it helps anyone:-
“Dis Coneygree Is Da Bomb Man”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yes I definitely get all that mate but can readily throw any stat outta the window on all I know about Coneygree….
I know they are massively different tests, round Kempton at Christmas and Cheltenham in March, but for a horse so straight forward and uncomplicated it shouldn’t matter a jot…he’s already shown a liking for Cheltenham previously and he doesn’t hang to the left or right or jump left or right, just head down straight, gallops and jumps….
We could all spend an age digging deep enough to find stats….like I cheekily did on the Champion Hurdle, but surely you have to look more at a horses profile and decide that way rather than dismissing on the basis of different horses in the past not following up….If he had only ever won going right handed, or won 6 times on winter ground and been beat 4 times on spring ground then fair enough….
The only slight question mark you could put against him is the going, which is obviously why there’s still a chance he may run in this….on just genuine good festival ground though I wouldn’t have any worry at all, and just cannot see any way how he gets beat…
Main danger to Coneygree in the RSA will be connections and the weather forecast of some rain on Wednesday and Thursday. I think they’re desperate to go for the Gold Cup, and who can blame them?
Surely that must be about Kings Palace and not Coneygree?
As Kings Palace hasn’t stepped outside of novice company and not really been asked a question….
Coneygree will battle all day long….but when he comes to the last 10 lengths clear he won’t need to do any battling…just come home the same he has the last twice…
I admire your confidence in the horse Zamorston, no sitting on fence with you and that is to be commended. As you know I’m a huge Don Poli fan and while I think there is a chance Coneygree and Kings Palace could set thing up to a degree, I’d be happier with Coneygree in the Gold Cup. Kings Palace could set whatever sort of pace he likes and I’d still fancy Don Poli to beat him.
Coneygree is a more dangerous opponent as he’s a battler as yourself and GT have stated above. While I respect Coneygree I think Don Poli is a sleeping monster and would be surprised if Coneygree beats him 10 lengths – very surprised.
I think Don Poli will take a lot of beating to be honest. There’s no telling how much he has in the tank and if there’s one thing this horse does it’s find plenty when the going gets tough. If he’s beaten then Coneygree could be the horse to do it, but I’ll be surprised if Kings Palace wins despite the strong vibes from the stable.
I do respect Don Poli…I actually backed him the other week in case Coneygree takes his chance in the big one as I believe he is the only danger, and should Coneygree not run I’m confident Don Poli will be way too good for the rest….I regurarly slate Willie for his record with chasers over here but he’s a great record in the race and you have to respect that….
I’ve followed racing 20+ years, and followed Coneygree since he was a baby over hurdles….enquired and enquired all that time he was out injured as I couldn’t wait to see him go over fences…He’s the most exciting novice chaser I think I’ve ever seen in my time watching racing…..I loved Denaman back in the day….I remember the massive build up to that years Gold Cup titanic battle with Kauto, and was definitely team Denman back then! This fella reminds me so much of ‘The Tank’….just love the way he races, the way he jumps fences. I also think it’s kind of a fairytale too with him coming from a small yard like the Bradstocks….
I’m starting now to get a bad gut feeling about it and think more and more they will gamble on the Gold Cup, and as already been touched on…why not! As far as I can see on ratings he only has SC to worry about….
If my prayers are answered though and he does go in this, I will say this….
Probably setting myself for an almighty fall and egg on my face….but….
I have never, ever been as confident in a horse winning at the festival as this….
Yes I definitely get all that mate but can readily throw any stat outta the window on all I know about Coneygree….
I know they are massively different tests, round Kempton at Christmas and Cheltenham in March, but for a horse so straight forward and uncomplicated it shouldn’t matter a jot…he’s already shown a liking for Cheltenham previously and he doesn’t hang to the left or right or jump left or right, just head down straight, gallops and jumps….
We could all spend an age digging deep enough to find stats….like I cheekily did on the Champion Hurdle, but surely you have to look more at a horses profile and decide that way rather than dismissing on the basis of different horses in the past not following up….If he had only ever won going right handed, or won 6 times on winter ground and been beat 4 times on spring ground then fair enough….
The only slight question mark you could put against him is the going, which is obviously why there’s still a chance he may run in this….on just genuine good festival ground though I wouldn’t have any worry at all, and just cannot see any way how he gets beat…
I agree that Coneygree is the one to beat and I gave my own reasons on why the stat doesn’t worry me. It was just an attempt to analyse where there might be reasons the statistic exists.
Stats are there to ignore if people don’t believe that they have any validity but you can’t really call a statistic that has seen 19 horses defeated, a “flawed” statistic, when it has been 100% successful, up to this point, in ruling out potential winners of the RSA. I would tend to call it a “dubious” statistic based on the fact that a couple of near misses occurred and Bobs Worth probably had an off day and the misfortune to meet both Silviniaco Conti and a Dynaste on a going day when he ran in The Feltham.
Knowing my luck Coneygree will run in The Gold Cup and the stat won’t get tested at all this year but, as Jim Bowen used to say “That’s the gamble”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
All this talk about Coneygree Don Poli and Kings Palace makes me think we should be looking further afield for the winner. What about Very Wood and Apache Jack who both bring Cheltenham form to the race albeit over hurdles and looking at the form both would like the ground to be good which may or may not be the case come race day.
If you are going to use stats then no winner for over FIFTY years has won the RSA without running that calendar year so that rules Don Poli out!! No Feltham winner in nineteen attempts so that rules out Coneygree !!
Kings Palace has won three races and beat a total of eight horses in those three races which doesn’t bode well for the pressure cooker that is Cheltenham. Hence me looking further afield for the winner.
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