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I love the RSA, always a race I look forward to, but I really should leave it alone. Used to be one of my best races, but that seems a long time ago, and been a while since I had any joy.
Hoping that changes next year though, and having already been well covered by several others on TRF already, I’m also very keen on Dallas Des Pictons, even this far out.
As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, I have my doubts that all of Elliots were 100% fit the other week, and I think this boy looked like a proper star, and I’m more than happy to forgive the fact that he appeared to find little.
Hardly a newsflash this, he’s been mentioned widely on here already, but what does surprise me is that the price has held. Yes, he does look equally obvious for The JLT at the same price, but at 33’s, you can just cover him for both if you want to play right now.
Given my increasingly poor track record in this, I’m not in a mad rush to dig out some more, but a quick word to the rejuvenated Sam Spinner, who could go over the larger obstacles. His run in The Stayers was one of my highlights of the week, and if the jockey can keep composed, then he should be a factor again, whichever route he takes.
The other one I like is Galvin. He’s another who I thought could have been less than 100%, and I was disappointed with him overall in The Ballymore, though its’s worth noting that he was still something of an outsider. I think he’ll be perfect over the larger obstacles, and I reckon he wants a trip. He was going to be something of a dark horse of mine for The NH Chase, but with major doubts over the complexion of that race in the future, then it makes sense to take a step back for that one. I think Galvin really could come into this, but very much a wait and see job, with question marks hanging over the amateur race.
I’ll leave it at that for now, probably wisely, but at 33’s, I really do think he’s worth a small early risk, though I’d probably split stakes on The JLT at the same price.
Dallas Des Pictons 33’s
VTC – I think the RSA could be the pick of the races in 2020, assuming we see lots of entrants come from this year’s Albert Bartlett. Very impressed with the first five home and could see any one of them winning here. First five in Albert Bartlett:
1) Minella Indo
2) Commander of Fleet
3) Allaho
4) Dickie Diver
5) Lisnagar OscarWith a metaphorical gun held to my head I would probably choose Dickie Diver but that would be a very close call.
There’s three from Gigginstown I’m after for this. Though I’ll likely play ‘any race’ for the three as they’ll be split up you’d expect.
Commander of Fleet
Dallas Des Pictons
Cracking SmartThis is my strongest ante-post fancy so far (even though I said I wasn’t going to get involved early!). Minella Indo looks a right tool. Up in the van all the way and raced way too keen. Took it up about 3/4 of a mile out in an above average Albert Bartlett. No better trainer of a novice chaser than HDB. 20s looks a very fair price and already on.
I can’t argue at all with Couteau, watched it back a couple of times, and he was very impressive, good luck with him.
Cheers VTC. I’m going to chip away at him while he’s still a decent price. Fingers crossed he takes to fences. His size and scope gives me optimism but you can never be certain. I do think after pulling like he did in the potato race he could be quite special.
Commander of fleet is a bull of a horse , if he can jump he,s def of interest , do you think his old run at Cheltenham was purely a lack of speed or did he just not like the place ..could be a poss negative
I’m not convinced Elliott’s horses were 100% at Cheltenham. For me, too many of his horses underperformed by too big a margin to be true. For example: Battleoverdoyen – Pulled up in Ballymore having been favourite and Apples Jade – 6th in the Champion Hurdle. I also think Commander of Fleet might have been another not to perform to his best despite finishing second.
We know Apples Jade scoped dirty after the race but it would be highly unlikely for an illness to be limited to one isolated case. Has anyone heard anymore about the health of Elliott’s yard at the time of the Festival?
With regards to your question about Commander of Fleet’s liking of the track, I don’t think this is an issue. He travelled pretty well throughout the race and did finish second after all. As Cousteau says above, there is every chance he just came across a good one in Minella Indo. I think the Albert Bartlett was a very high quality race and I would be surprised if we didn’t get a number of top horses from the race. I hope Elliott keeps Commander of Fleet over three miles and isn’t tempted by the 4m Novice Chase with him.
Bright Forecast looked every bit an RSA horse the way he stayed on in the Ballymore and the 50’s that were initially available are all gone… Unfortunately not by me! I really do rate him and will be keeping a very keen eye on him as he goes chasing next season.
I posted this a few months back on FJF:
I am all over Battleoverdoyen and think he’s a massive price @ 40/1 (William Hill). Ante Post prices are generally rubbish compared to the days of old, but prices like this give me faith all is not lost! I’ve used quite a few £5 free bets on him @ 25/1 (Skybet), but have decided to take a bigger position @ 40’s.
Gordon loves him. You don’t have to look too hard to stumble across plenty of quotes praising the ‘big chaser in the making’ that he ‘wouldn’t swap him for anything’.
Gerry Cosgrave, known as a genial County Down point-to-point trainer, had BOD before Gordon. ‘‘He was a lovely, big, strong fella, the sort that takes a bit of time, but he did everything so easy. You can see now, it was total ability he had. I had a feeling I had something nice, that’s for sure‘‘
He won his only pointing start at Loughanmore in April 2017 and five days later was sold for £235,000 at Tattersalls Ireland Cheltenham. Interestingly, Racing TV did an interview with Richard Pugh (14/02/2019) who has probably seen more P2P’s that I’ve had hot dinners, and when asked which horses he saw at P2P’s for the first time that he thought would go on to be a star he mentions three. Best Mate, Imperial Commander and Battleoverdoyen who he described as ‘awesome’.
Gerry Cosgrave said “I’m hoping Battleoverdoyen wins the Gold Cup some day because jumping fences is his proper game.”
Even if you’re one of those people that cannot put a line through the Ballymore, when you combine his profile and regard he’s held, P2P win, price tag, horses he is being aligned with, and the fact he’s trained by GE, make him no 40/1 shot. He needs time, fences and more than two and half miles, all of which he will get. The market has over reacted to his flop at Cheltenham and Gordon’s post-race comments, and then Champ and Minella Indo have both enhanced their Cheltenham form since in fine style. They have shortened leaving serious value in behind. I hope Gerry is right and he is good enough to progress into a Gold Cup horse. Long way to go, but I expect BOD to win his beginners chase and not look back. Price will tumble and we’ll all be on at 40’s.
Carefully Selected & Next Destination are 2 I’ll be keeping an eye out for with this their likely destination of they go well.
Minella Indo isn’t bred for fences and might win a small field novice or two but I couldn’t back him for this.
Mark what am i missing in his pedigree that suggests he’s not bred for fences?
E24,000 F; 10th foal; closly related to two point winners inc Carrigeen Lonicera (also bumper), half-brother to three winners inc Benatar (2m3f-3m5f hurdle/smart chase) and Carrigeen Lechuga (useful 2m6f/3m chase); dam 2m3f-2m5f chase winner
The mare he’s out of recorded her best form over fences.
He’s won a point easily as well?
I presume your maybe looking at the sire’s progeny, but he’s not been a NH sire all that long + he’s had good success.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!There aren’t enough decent chasers on either side of that pedigree to entice me into backing Minella Indo for the RSA
He’ll be up against other smart types with bloodlines more proven at this levelI do see your point to a degree but I hope you’re wrong because I’ve been backing him in singles and accas since March. Personally, I don’t see any issue Minella Indo’s breeding (Beat Hollow’s sired some Cheltenham winners, albeit none I can recall over fences) and must’ve shown some fair ability in his point to be bought privately. Definitely stays and is certainly built for the job; he’s an absolute beast. Henry said his schooling has been ‘very good’. Who’d have thunk Tiger Roll would’ve done what he’s pulled off over fences, the dirty flat rat! 😉
After spending the summer watching Bright Forecast’s odds tumble from 50’s down to 25’s I’ve decided to commit to him before he drops further. I’m convinced he’s going to be a very good chaser and suspect this race will be targeted. Though I’m not sure about the logic of backing an RSA runner 5 months in advance before he’s even jumped a single fence?
Such an approach with novice chasers has served me very well in the past e. g with top class hurdlers by Al Namix invariably failing to attain similar heights over fences
Freaks will get through and a sires best NH crops will often start to flourish when he reaches 8 or 9 years old, so young sires are obviously more difficult to assessThe RSA is also a race where good value can be found throughout the winter, unlike most recent Arkles have been won by a horse smashed up in the betting fairly early on in the campaign
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