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These Heritage Handicaps are always very tasty – none more so than this. There’s no stand out handicap-good-thing this year when Forgotten Voice was last year. He’s still got an entry in the race as he does for a few others. Big weight though…
I have been looking at a few around the current 20/1 mark but there are still about 80 in the running and I don’t want to blow a few quid…
Mabait is out – he used up most of his handy mark last few runs anyway. Dandy Boy had a great run last time but he’s too short for an extra 5lbs.
One I have pitched is Huzzah at 25/1. He has a very good record at Ascot, in fact if finishing second to Forgotten Voice last year isn’t enough, he ran on very well in the Victoria Cup and is 10lbs lower than that run and 7lbs lower than his highest winning mark. Barry Hills himself says Ascot brings the best out of him and at 25/1 with this race firmly in his plans, Huzzah makes a very appealing bet.
Another few I like are Tryst, Truism, Surour, Balcarce Nov, Oratory.
Anyone else had a good look at the race? Its a cracking puzzle to work out.
Good luck!
Huzzah won’t make the cut, shirley.
ACROSTIC
He may not be as progressive with form figures as Forte Dei Marmi or Mabait, but there is no obvious "Group Horse/Handicap" here, like you say. He’s 9lbs higher than his rich Sandown win but his last run of last season should not be underestimated. Roaring Forte may well have won the 09 Hunt Cup off 99 had he been allowed to race (remember how livid Haggas was?). Would have been 1st or 2nd anyway. We know this because he absolutely hosed up at York, prowling to the front of affairs and unleashing a huge surge to take him away from the field; Later banged up 8lbs for it, to 107. Only 2 horses were able to give chase, and in so doing they pulled a huge 4L clear of the useful Webbow and the rest. Acrostic was giving the well-in winner 1 lb and could have been second but the situation was accepted late on and he dipped for a 2L 3rd, but his late-race move to chase the winner is worth noting. One good prep run and bang, planned. 16/1 e/w has been lifted.
Dandy Boy, Riggins, Tryst & Last Three Minutes on the radar too.
Ah crap! Thats why Hill ran him at Goodwood the other day then
He is very lowly rated…Thanks for pointing that out.
Same case applies for Truism then.Acrostic was put up by Gary Nutting tother day on ATR. He’s been running well lately and is sure to be involved…
My second choice would be Surour then. Good reappearance at Chester last month and David Simcock has a reasonable record at Ascot. Looks still to be progressing having beaten Shamwari Lodge last year. he has speed and form over course and distance (seperately) and in big field handicaps. Steadily rising in the weights he may not be near done yet.
Yeah odd to think he was 2nd last year. Followed him for a while, not sure his ability is quite what that run suggests!
Interestingly there is a draw bias for this race, apparent before the track was relayed and persisting:
1,5,4
4,1,5
14,19,4 (Royal Oath won by 4L)
3,2,11
york
8,3
6,10,4,2
10,30,2for those yet to play, could be worth waiting for the draw!
The trends say…
Acrostic
Beauchamp Xerxes
Bangalore Gold
Dandy Boy
Himalya
Oratory
Surour
Swift Gift
Tartan GighaLast Three Minutes – 10 furlong type?
Tiger Reigns – not as good on a straight track? wants cut?
Forte Dei Marmi – Wolferton???Himalya looks a very interesting type. His last race at Newmarket saw him just held over 6f pulling away from the field. I’d very much like to be on his side. It looked like he was inching towards the winner at the line and the extra distance would see him trouble the judge. He has a LOT of speed to be competitive over 6f.
He’s by Danehill Dancer out of a Barathea mare so the pedigree says he’ll stay.
He has an entry in the Wokingham though and seems fancied for that. (25/1 while he’s 40s for the Hunt Cup!) Maybe thats just because he’s never run over 8f and the public expect him to go over 6f
I might be inclined to take the 40s for a tiny stake because hes never run over the 8f and looked as if that was the obvious place to go. His sole start over 7f saw him a length off the winner in a listed race at Kempton.
Thoughts?
I’m generally interested in
Manassas
, as I think there is probably still a big race in him. He is only 1 lb higher than when winning at Doncaster last September.
However, he is also entered at Sandown (£16,000 race) on Saturday.
Would there be a chance that he runs in both??
Supposedly ground dependent, wanting a bit of cut, but both victories last year were on "Gd to Fm" at Doncaster, though at least the first of these had cut in the ground!
I’m generally interested in
Manassas
, as I think there is probably still a big race in him. He is only 1 lb higher than when winning at Doncaster last September.
However, he is also entered at Sandown (£16,000 race) on Saturday.
Would there be a chance that he runs in both??
Supposedly ground dependent, wanting a bit of cut, but both victories last year were on "Gd to Fm" at Doncaster, though at least the first of these had cut in the ground!
He looks far too unreliable and realistic odds. Has the ability to perform but is too difficult as for preferances and going days. Wouldn’t like to be on him myself.
FDM up 6lbs and confirmed for the Wolferton
It’s gonna be such a crap price isn’t he. I wish Cumani didn’t train him.
I’m on Stoic too, took a chance and backed it the other week at 25/1.
Pleased to see the Noseda yard find the winners enclosure with a few lately as the stable form was a big worry! The 2 and a 1/2 length beating he dished out to the potentially smart Alainmaar on his 3rd outing reads well and Ryan Moore has been pencilled in to ride…
I’ll admit I think Stoic is the kind of horse I perhaps get wrong on the flat, but:
Penitent won a poor Lincoln, and Penitent himself is not that good. And it was a dead-heat last year. The win against Alainmaar as babies is highly dubious in terms of Hunt Cup form (imo). How has he got to a rating of 104 having done, in essence, bugger all? Seems very odd. Perhaps unexposed on turf? Ah maybe.
Still, the draw will play a huge part, would imagine you’d need to be near a rail, especially the ‘low’ rail.
Group horse in a handicap,Group horse in a handicap,the alarm bells are ringing!
Fareer
it is then!
Narrow Britannia winner off 92, up 15lbs to 107 and ran from the front lto (not overly impressive)..hmmm!
Has a Britannia winner ever gone on to win the Hunt Cup?
Hambleton Stakes winner (Fareer): 00580 (0-0-5)
Narrow Britannia winner off 92, up 15lbs to 107 and ran from the front lto (not overly impressive)..hmmm!
Has a Britannia winner ever gone on to win the Hunt Cup?
Hambleton Stakes winner (Fareer): 00580 (0-0-5)
Dont let the stats drown you Bucksy,as Captain of the Lifeboat that keeps my followers heads above water i can assure you so long as the draw doesn"t **** the straight course races up then
Fareer
will be in the money!
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