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It really does seem crazy to get involved ante-post on talking horses like Allez Colombieres. It’s not even as if the stable has just the one dart to throw. Bookmakers have probably only just stopped counting their cash from West Wizard last year.
At the other end of the scale it had appeared that Jetson was a pretty much exposed three mile handicapper. Not sure if it is the link with Davy Russell but at 9 going on 10 he suddenly looks to have found some significant improvement. With two good runs at the Festival and the market in a certain amount of turmoil at the moment I can’t think of too many I would prefer for the World Hurdle.
Ante-Post on any horse carries its risks. Sometimes stable vibes are wrong and we saw with Djakadam that stable confidence/vibes can end in tears.
It looked from all the signals that Allez Colombieres was the more expected of the Willie Mullins horses going into the race and the very fact they saw fit to run him in a grade 1 on his debut surely shows the level of confidence they had in his ability.
The trouble with deeming 10/1 a "crazy" price to get involved with is the counter side of the argument, which is that a good win would have seen Allez Colombieres probably cut to 5/1 for the Supreme Novices.
We all have opinions on what represents value but I would have said Djakadam on Saturday at 5/1 in an ultra competitive handicap was worse value, particularly for a young and inexperienced horse trying a good bit further on energy sapping conditions.
I didn’t put any money on Allez Colombieres for Cheltenham and my sole bet this jumps season was a few quid on Hargam for the Triumph Hurdle.
Had I been betting I would probably have stuck a few quid on Allez because Willie Mullins has won the last two renewals and if you can find his best prospect you’re probably a fair way on the right track for starters.
Kalkir won the opener for the same team at Fairyhouse today, when a shade of odds on and he’s been sliced in to a clear 8/1 favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. That was a grade 3 race, so you shudder to think how short bookies would have had Allez Colombieres if he’d put in a similar performance in a Grade 1 half an hour later?
All horses look a bad bet after they have injured themselves and punters can only take the best odds offered when they believe a horse is going to shorten for a later race.
p.s Allez Colombieres was later put down
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very polished performance from Valseur Lido. Jumped well, travelled well and quickened clear well. Mullins has mentioned the RSA but I think he looks perfectly suited to two and a half and wouldn’t be in a rush to step him up.
My fancy Apache Stronghold ran well but whereas Valseur Lido was polished Apache is far from it. He looked very distracted by Real Steel’s antics and continually followed him out to the left. Having jumped so well at Down Royal this was disappointing. I loved the way he then stayed on powerfully for second and think a step up to three miles could bring out the best in him despite what Noel Meade says.
Very polished performance from Valseur Lido. Jumped well, travelled well and quickened clear well. Mullins has mentioned the RSA but I think he looks perfectly suited to two and a half and wouldn’t be in a rush to step him up.
If they get the usual Festival ground (Good/Good to Soft) it wouldn’t surprise me if he turns up in the RSA. One thing is for sure we will not know anything certain until much closer to the race. Confidence for either race would have been increased with a better run at last year’s Festival but that might have been due to an insufficient test of stamina rather than the course.
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