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Fancy keeping another thread on the go over the next few months. Will keep it semi-regular and majority of bets will be posted before the off of races when I do, though I think I will pop up the odd preview, like to kick this off with.
Bath hosts a competitive card today and one in which there looks plenty of lively betting opportunities. With the watering system (the rain) in place this week we are faced with the unfamiliar sight of softer conditions.
1.30
Kicking the card off Jersey Brown has a strong chance of getting back to winning ways. Easy to forgive last time out on desperate ground she won with a bit in hand at Ayr on her penultimate start after posting a couple of strong performances previously. In peak of form and capable of a bit better yet she will take all the beating in here.
Princess Icicle is the most interesting in opposition. Caught out in a slowly run race last time out things didn’t quite pan out for her but she kept on for a respectable enough second. It was a similar story at Lingfield earlier in the year when unlucky to lose in a slow run contest and I don’t think we have seen the best of her yet and is a danger to Jersey Brown.
3pt win Jersey Brown 7/1 best priced
2.00
Gharaaneej was bought to be a lot better than this level she is racing at and into handicaps for the first time she certainly looks to have a strong chance of getting her head in front off the back off an encouraging performance in her last maiden. Predictably she looks short enough for her chance here.
A little overlooked would be Lady Bayside. She looks right on top of her game and his handicapped to her best to go close today. She has plenty in her favour on the whole, though I would be a tad bit concerned where the pace will come from any frailty in the favourite and she will take advantage of it.
1pt win Lady Bayside 13/2 best priced
3.05
My strongest fancy of the day at Bath is Frontline News. She ran into a very good one last time out but still ran a very sound race. She was screaming out for 12f after her Leicester run and ran a stormer at Haydock when being upped in distance. She has a lot in her favour today and back in class and still going forward I think she will prove hard to beat.
I’m quite happy to be against Aurthorized Too, I don’t think much of the race he won (all be it very easily) at Yarmouth and having bombed out last time out and being withdrawn on softer ground in the past I don’t think he should even be favourite here.
2pt win Frontline News 4/1 best priced3.55
A good staying event for the track and one with plenty of chances but the market has it right by installing Le Maitre Chat as favourite after finding little luck in running at Ascot last time out. That was his first run upped in trip and he looks to have plenty more to come at staying distances and this looks something he can take advantage of.
See And Be Seen held of Cesarewitch winner Big Easy last time up and he will need a bit in hand again today if he is to hold off the improving Le Maitre Chat but it was a massive performance from him at Goodwood and he is sure to be the one LMC will have to get the better of in the final stages.
Le Maitre Chat 3/1, See And Be Seen 9/2, Taws, Royal Warranty 6/1, Mustamir. Saborido 10/1. Boite, Snowy Dawn 20/1
Wouldn’t be taking any at the prices but do fancy Le Maitre Chat to take this.
4.10
Daylight has a good chance to get his head in front again today. He has been showing signs of getting back to best lately and this looks an easier contest for him than of late back on a good handicap mark. Should be plenty of pace on for him to come with a closing run and they tend to pan out across the track here over 6f so he should get a clear run at the business end.
Threave and Maymyo look dangerous in opposition but I feel Daylight could just be a bit too good for this field on the whole and looks a fair bet.
1pt win Daylight 10/1 best priced
David Probert up on the first race at Windsor, I find this interesting as David Probert is a jockey I have long followed and think is destined for the top one day.
In the last year he has an incredible strike rate on winning favourites, not that I am particularly a favourite backer but he is just short of 45% on winning favourites in the 365 days at a p/l of about
Outside the normal candidates, Daniel Tudhope (44% +40), Adam Kirby (40% +31.5) & George Baker (41% +37) are notable performers when legged up on a favourite.
Cheers VTC, good to see your threads going strong.
This will be semi-regular and somewhere to jot my ramblings I suppose.
I can never keep up with the forum in the summer as I can never find much time!
Lots of sand racing to keep me going over the winter though.
No primary bets shaping up for me today, but there are some interesting runners at bigger prices at Nottingham that are worth a look.
3.30 Nurpur
Shaped OK last time out from a break not getting the best trip. She was denied a run at Ayr earlier in the year where she would have disputed the finish and on her best back form of last year, back in class slightly here she is good enough to surprise the favourite.
1pt win Nurpur 18/1 SJ, 16/1 general various BOG.
4.00 Moshe
Moshe seems to have been abandoned as a hopeless cause after being sent off a short priced favourite lto following a romp of a maiden. That was as a performance full of promise and forgiving a run, upped in distance he make some appeal as a horse that could still be a lot better than he has shown and is worth chancing.
1pt win Moshe 10/1 general various BOG.
Well the favourite got beat in the 3.30 but not by my two unfortunately, both were worth a punt at the prices, was a crazy market.
Moshe ran well for 2nd, but as I thought Nabatean was a bit too good in the end.
David Probert is riding very well at the moment though Balding is turning them out in good form currently and he would have done well not to win!
Kempton 5.30
Pipers Note
is worth a pop at a big price, he ran a stinker last time out but he simply does not handle soft ground.
His run in the Great St Wilfred prior to that gives him a huge chance here if he takes to the polytrack, it will certainly suit him to be off soft ground.
2pt win
Pipers Note
16/1 general BOG
Very impressed with
Golden Horn
yesterday at Nottingham for John Gosden. Was green early on missing the break but travelled up smartly inside the final 2 coming from last to first showing an impressive turn of foot to go and catch the favourite who had gone on. He did it with little fuss and was green again in the finish hanging left when in front.
There was plenty enough form coming into the maiden, the 2nd was beaten by Aloft on debut and the pair were a long way clear of the 3rd and 4th who were both once raced and placed on debut.
He looks a classy colt and capable of a great deal better and will make up into a group performer next year I have little doubt.
Pipers Note
finished 2nd at 14/1, so far clear of the rest, I was pretty hopeful when he went for home, oh well.
Steelriver is in some sort of form, very good on synthetic and should keep thriving whilst in this form. I had betting software trying to get a price about him but alas, it was not to be!W
Newmarket 4.15
Open enough affair but siding with
Ocean Applause
. Back in distance not a concern, has plenty enough pace for it and sets a decent standard on recent form.
1pt win
Ocean Applause
9/1 general
Wolverhampton 4.25
Tougher assignment for Zaeem now but he is well overpriced in the opener. Fancy Set The Trend the most but happy to take a double figure price about Zaeem. Like the way he travelled through the contest last time out into contention and pulled clear in really good style.
He has spent too long racing over the wrong distance, his speed highlighted by how well he travelled through the extended 8f last time out and is down the handicap nicely now.
1pt win
Zaeem
10/1 general
Already watched a car crash with my best bet of the day Lungarno Palace being negotiated up the backside of most horses in the field in the 1.30 at Newmarket, here is hoping for a bit better luck now.
My strongest fancy of the day at Bath is
Frontline News
. She ran into a very good one last time out but still ran a very sound race. She was screaming out for 12f after her Leicester run and ran a stormer at Haydock when being upped in distance. She has a lot in her favour today and back in class and still going forward I think she will prove hard to beat.
I’m quite happy to be against Aurthorized Too, I don’t think much of the race he won (all be it very easily) at Yarmouth and having bombed out last time out and being withdrawn on softer ground in the past I don’t think he should even be favourite here.
2pt win Frontline News 4/1 best priced
Goes and wins at Newmarket, not a penny on, D’oh!
Little disappointed not to be ahead so far, I had a few absent days with password problems and would have had a couple of good ones to add at BFSP that won, never to mind!
Jersey Brown
3rd
7/1
Lady Bayside1st
13/2
Frontline News UP 4/1
Daylight UP 10/1Nurpur UP 18/1
First Post UP BFSP 16.67
Moshe2nd
12/1
Pipers Note2nd
16/1
Ocean Applause UP 9/1
Special Miss UP BFSP 13.24
Duelling Dragon2nd
BFSP 14.28
Zaeem UP 10/1Mine is well worn in now VTC!
Newmarket 1.25
Siding with
Encore L´Amour
, she didn’t get a good time of things at Deauville last time out and with a better run would have gone closer, the race has a good look about it and she comes in here as the best form horse. Has improved for softer conditions and now she is going forward I don’t see why she can not keep improving and looks the one to beat.
2pt win
Encore L´Amour
11/2 general
Newmarket 2.00
Pretty open race on the whole, really like Donncha but looks short enough. The form at Windsor is working out remarkably well and will be go well here. However, in peak form at present with a dominant display last time out winning at Goodwood,
War Singer
looks a fair bit overpriced on the morning line and is worth chancing.
1pt win
War Singer
12/1 general
Newmarket 4.15
Brigliadoro
got back to winning ways at Kempton last time out and is not a horse we have seen the best of yet, he won with plenty enough in hand and is still a horse capable of better.
3pt win
Brigliadoro
6/1 best priced
Well that day could have gone better…
Southwell 15.15
Bedloes Island is interesting back to Southwell, handicapped well on a winning performance he turned in here in the winter and has a good record fresh. 9 years old but not as many miles on the clock as you would think and is just good enough to take this contest so long as he is good to go.
General price of 7/1 and well worth a pop. 1 pt win @ 7/1 general…
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