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This nice little juvenile race tends to be ignored in the face of the Cambs, the Sun Chariot and of course, the Arc but it’s thrown up some nice horses over the years and is not that hard to work out. Usually.:cool:
Somnus, Captain Rio and Peak to Creek spring to mind as good recent winners. ÂÂÂ
Hoh Mike looks heavily favoured by the weights, but a man is starting to need deep pockets and the forgiveness of a saint to follow this one and I suspect he’s beatable despite the ratings.
I’m taking him on with Peter Makin’s Longquan.
This one finished just behind Hoh Mike and Elhamri in that notable early season Windsor maiden. Like many from that yard, he patently needed the run first time out (though he was nicely backed each way).
The horse then had the misfortune to meet Strategic Prince at Salisbury and was beaten into second. Possibly showing the effects of that, (and possibly a dislike of the Bath road-like surface), Longquan was disappointing at the Spa track and was subsequently given a summer break.
Reappearing at Newbury in September, he once again found a Paul Cole inmate too good, before finally getting on the scoresheet in good style at Haydock a couple of Saturdays back.
There are plenty of reasons to look at this one. The Makin stable is in good form, with only one unplaced runner from the last seven. The stable doesn’t send horses to Redcar for the seaside air, (1/2 victorious – a 2yo) and the RP seem to have completely underrated the animal in comparison to Hoh Mike. (100 compared to 126).
There’s no way of knowing the impact of the draw, (low draws housed 8 winners to 2 in the last ten years but there have been plenty of high drawn placings). His form suggests good, good to firmish ground is ideal and 6f is fine.
At a current 23/1, this is a horse with a strong chance from a stable which can handle a good sprinter; (Pivotal Point and the speedy Elbio to name but two).
Anyone else studied the race?
Cheers
Max
My word how Hoh Mike has lost his way.
But it’s not incredibly suprising when you take a look at last year’s 2yo Ascot races.
Titus Alone, Masta Plasta, Flashy Wings, La Chunga, Red Clubs.
The first 2 have been massive disappointments ever since. Flashy Wings has disappointed while running ok, while La Chunga has only actually run well twice since, when 2nd to Flashy Wings in the Lowther, and winning a Group 3 at York, which was actually run over same C&D as the 2yo Ascot race. Red Clubs – well the Coventry has always been a good race.
I’m happy they’ve got Hoh Mike at 6f, because after his 2 Windsor wins, that was always going to be his trip. I thought it was folly by connections to go for 5f rather than 6. But certainly the trends from last year’s Ascot suggest that you should avoid them straight afterwards.
From 2000 to 2005, only 2 winners of the Queen Mary actually performed consistently after the Ascot race – Queen’s Logic and Attraction. 2 out of 6. And this year’s winner Gilded has disappointed since, despite running an ok race twice.
In the Norfolk, only Superstar Leo, Johannesburg and Dutch Art performed consistently well since 2000.
In the Albany since 2002, not even one horse has run very well consistently since winning at Ascot – Sander Camillo winning at HQ LTO was in completely contradiction to what the trends suggested.
And I can’t remember the other racename……
But my advice would be to oppose Hoh Mike – based on what he has achieved in his lifetime, he is a clear favourite. But based on what he has done recently, he is in for some tough opposition. There are any number of possible challengers.
Danum Dancer has to have a chance on the figures, he doesn’t have a great deal to find with Hoh Mike on Flying Childers running and is clearly a different horse in blinkers.
Congrat’s DJ. Good spot.:biggrin:
As for mine. Well, I thought it had been withdrawn! I still didn’t spot it in the race. Was it last? Lots of fingers burned judging by the market moves. (29’s early on BF – 9/1 on course).
Thanks Max, was a rather good result I must admit. Was trading at 30’s on betfair on the off.
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