Rating by POINTS

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NATHRA did well yesterday at Newmarket in the Nell Gwyn I am now with fingers crossed the system can produce just as good result in the Earl of Sefton Stakes today:

Newmarket 4.30 AIR PILOT with a score of 150pts. clear by 6. at 85/40 with BetVictor 2nd Lost

also

Cheltenham 3.35 JOHN’S SPIRIT 196pts +3. at 7/2 with bet365 3rd Lost

Gifted Master is clear by a country mile in the 3.20 at Newmarket with a 24pt. clear margin but the price reflects the superiority. Won

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Thursday.

The perfect 13/13 score.

Chelmsford 8.40 BRACKEN BRAE at 7/2 bet365

Deep into a losing run and holding the faith is getting taxing as well as draining profits from winnings via other systems but all corners have to be turned at some time or other.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Perfect Points for Thursday.

There looks to be some with chances today but I can’t bet on them all.

FOUNDATION in the Craven looks very possible but at 8/11 will be passed.

Newmarket 3.20 being the most valuable race of the day – LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY +18 at 11/8 bet365

Ripon 3.10 MIRSAALE at 7/4 bet365 is clear by the largest margine +22

I may regret passing on the likes of MOTDAW +12, MAGICAL MEMORY +8, BOURNEMOUTH BELLE +8 & BENVOLIO +4

Billy's Outback Shack

[GeorgeJ]

Billion

In the last three weeks or so you’ve identified quite a few qualifiers on the approach being tried on the thread, with some winners but more losers, and although I’ve not accounted them I’d be fairly sure an overall significant loss. This is wholly unsurprising, given (a) the relative crudity of the approach and (b) the fact that it was a published (or sold) approach with full details given so that some years later it can be implemented accurately by a third party (in this case of course your good self). I haven’t been following your other approach threads as closely but I’d risk a decent sized bet that over a significant period the outcome would be much the same, because points (a) and (b) apply equally.

If what you are looking for is a reasonably easily applied approach with which to have some fun each day, having some decent wins from time to time but accepting that, long term, there will be a loss but happy to pay the cost for the day to day fun and the excitement of the odd good win, then what you are doing makes perfect sense – testing the water with several approaches and in time no doubt narrowing down to one or two which best match what you are looking for in terms of time taken to apply them and frequency of wins etc.

If you want to win overall, though, you will need to develop your own approach and the reason for this post today is to suggest that you could do a lot worse than review one of the horses you named yesterday, which in the event you left – Magical Memory.

It is questionable as to whether any horse making its seasonal debut can truly be considered – by outsiders such as us – a “good thing”, because unlike connections we don’t know how such horses have fared over the winter and how close they are to full fitness. It is the case that reasonable assumptions can be made – some trainers seem to do better with first time out horses than others whose horses typically need a run or two to get near to full race fitness, and the value of the race matters (trainers are more likely to have a horse with a genuine chance fully fit for a big prize like the Lincoln than a more run of the mill race which if often treated as essentially a prep. race for a bigger prize further down the line). But the £34,000 Abernant yesterday, while not a top prize, was by no means negligible and it was reasonable (ish) to assume that the horses with genuine chances would probably be fit enough.

So, given that assumption (and always remembering it is only an assumption – only those connected to Magical Memory had an informed view about his fitness), it is worth having a look at him from the three angles I’ve previously suggested – ability, form and capability issues:

ability – yesterday’s race was worth £34,000 to the winner, so which horses histories suggest they are up to that (actually not a very useful discriminator with the Abernant because it was full of such horses). But MM clearly qualifies as he had won races worth £62,000 and £155,000 last season.

form – less easy with seasonal debutantes when most recent races were often six or seven months ago, but how many in the field had better last three runs than MM, whose profile (3rd last to last) was won £62,000 race, won £155,00 race and close 3rd (beaten less than a length) in a £162,000 race. For a £34,000 race like yesterday’s that is excellent form.

capability issues – which horses had won, or run well, on (a) good/soft, (b) over 6f and (c) on an undulating “power” course like Newmarket? MM had. (The absence of evidence for (c) was just one of the question marks against the horse with the best current season form in the field).

And in non handicaps one has an additional check overall – accepting the Official Handicapper for what he is, namely the official arbiter on performances – which was the best horse in the field? MM who, had the race been a handicap, would have been giving weight to every other runner.

So here we had in MM the best horse in the race (from the Official Handicapper’s perspective), amply proven in ability, with excellent last three race form and clearly suited by conditions. The only thing, in my view, that prevented him being a racing certainty was (for us outsiders) the inability to be sure he was fully fit.

Of the other races you referred to yesterday I only looked at the 3.35 Cheltenham, which is also perhaps worth your while reviewing. Benvolio had some pluses but he suffered from the same problem as Baccarat in the Abernant and he didn’t make the four who had really chances. Of these (Forgotten Gold, Perfect Candidate, Sire Collonges and Warden Hill), if you check them on the three considerations referred to above – ability, form and capability – you may or may not agree with me as to which came out best.

[billion]

Love your post GeorgeJ of which many observations are spot on.

I do love the interest and the pleasure (excitement) when finding a winner etc. from within the concepts of my hobby.

My main intersts has always been what is termed as the KISS ideal, even if as you say is somewhat crude. Furthermore you are correct that most of these ideas are losing a little which is only what they are allowed before being discarded into the waste bin.

However, “Rating by Points” remains in the black and I only bet those indicated within the posts and pass on others such as Magical Memory that are not emboldened.

I find the process quite time consuming and wish I could score every race, although I am trying to identify those more worthy than others, although I do need many more results before this is possible. Nevertheless I am encouraged by the likes of DRIFTWOOD HAZE on Sunday winning at Ffos Las at 8/1, WHATS UP WOODY at 7/2 on Monday, IBN MALIK (joint top score) at 3/1 Wednesday, MAGICAL MEMORY of course and then INDIAN STREAM (equal top score of 3) at 8/1 yesterday at Cheltenham, KATIE TOO on the same card won at 100/30

28 races checked (33 possible selections) inluding 11 winners with a level stake return at Sp’s of 46.95 +13.95.

Although I did not intend checking the results so early your posting has prompted me to do so, using the golden rule of level stakes is very pleasing but I do have two caveats, firstly my math ability has always left a little to be desired and secondly I do not bet level stakes.

Although it is still too early to make major changes, I am guided by your words and feel the only way possible for me to possibly proceed with a deeper examination is by dropping some other time consuming ideas and is something that has been playing on my mind but which ones?

Profitability is all important and so a review is now on the cards.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

With all kind of domestic disharmony breaking out this morning making me behind with my posting but here goes: –

Bath 6.20 RIDGE RANGER +12pts. clear (having already been selected and bet at 9/4), however at this time 2/1 is available via Stan James. Lost

Southwell 5.10 EDLOMOND +7pts clear at 7/2 with bet365 Lost

Fontwell 3.20 AS DE FER +6pts clear at 100/30 with BetVictor Lost

I have tried to select the most valuable races at each meeting or perhaps one with good exposed form which at the start of a new season is not always easy.

Ayr today tossed up joint scores in the 3.45 with ORBASA & FIRTH of CLYDE and 4.45 DESERT QUEEN, MORELLO ROYALE & RUN RUCTIONS RUN. Losers-ALL
By checking back to clarify my reply to GeorgeJ the suggestion should be to back them all.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Saturday.

I am a little bit like a blind man thrashing about in the dark but here goes: –

Ayr 2.25 BRISTOL DE MAI +11pts. clear
Clear by 4 OR
Can handle today’s ground conditions
Has previously won this class of race.

Available at 1/1 early market.

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[GeorgeJ]

With the main danger a non runner, Bristol De Mai looks a racing certainty from my perspective.

A similarly strong selection on the Flat would warrant a bet even at the current 8/13. There is, though, more risk over the sticks, and while I fully expect your selection to win, personally I do not back at odds on in chases.

[billion]

Well GeorgeJ Bristol De Mai was not odds-on when my bet was placed and I also choose to avoid odds-on but sadly it was all all to no avail the begger did not win despite Henryville not running. I was interested by the comments on Ch4 before the race that it does happen with some horses towards the end of season they can lose their sparkle and come down from the peak fitness level.

I have looked at 2 Class 3 races for Sunday and am not sure what to make of them.

Wincanton 2.55 DUSKY LARK +6pts and can cope with the ground conditions, has won at this race level but is now on an official rating of 129 , 7 higher than previous wins. Are all the boxes ticked?

Wetherby 3.45 STREETS of PROMISE +4pts. Has won with Heavy ground but the expected conditions are Soft (S-G)
It is top of the OR at 130 a lot higher than previous wins when 117 & 120. WON 9/2

DUSKY LARK looks to be the one for me – I think.
7/2 BetVictor . . . Lost

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[GeorgeJ]

The race provided an excellent illustration of the risk of taking a short price in a novice chase. As at Cheltenham, albeit then in a much better race, BDM’s jumping became rather sketchy when he was put under pressure and his flow was disrupted. Hopefully he’ll improve with experience. I certainly wouldn’t back Le Mercurey to beat him again at level weights next season.

[billion]

I am sure GeorgeJ can present many pointers regarding when too or when not too select and back a horse but it will not make me feel any better having missed STREETS of PROMISE winning at 9/2.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

I was almost ready to pass this one today but with the brain not working very well this morning I found I had overlooked The Newton Abbot meeting and so: –

Newton Abbot 3.20 DORMELLO MO +4pts available at 6/5 with Stan James. Lost

I worry at little with regard to the conditions and it being a four horse race but with Paul Nicholls needing every pound to win this years title I wonder if this will be in the horses favour. V. Williams (ASO) does not quite look to have her stable in as good form as that of Nicholls but I always worry when I see the name Tizzard in the same company but nothing in life is a certain
.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Depression has set in – big time!

I am going to take a back seat with this idea and not that I think it to be a wrong ‘un but I am picking the wrong ones to back and don’t know why.

Yesterday I allowed STREETS of PROMISE to slip by and today I chose to ignore BEYONDTEMPTATION when clear by 3pts thus missing it as a 7/1 sp winner.

How gutting is that?

I am not feeling too well at present and perhaps not applying myself as I should on a system which may be beyond my capability and is taking up too much of my time and energy.

For the time being I will stick to the quick and easy fun methods and perhaps return to this when my mind is more together and focused.

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