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This could be described as a favourite backers dream.
Over the last 7 seasons…
All 7 winners have been in the top 3 of the betting.
6 of the 7 winners were the (outright) favourite.
6 of the 7 winners had won their last race (Crowded House in 2008 was 2nd in his previous race).Elm Park at around 7/4 looks the likely favourite (3/1 bar), won his last race and has won on the going.
Will favourite backers be piling on ??
This looks a below average renewal and I did entertain the idea of backing
Elm Park
when the first book was opened on the race during the week.
Andrew Balding’s Royal Lodge winner was 5/2 at that time and is a worthy favourite here given his form and the strength of the opposition he faces today.
I wasn’t particularly impressed by the Royal Lodge, as it seemed to be a dour battle between the winner and the Barry Hills trained runner up Nafaqa.
The O’Brien challenge appears like it is composed of his second line of colts and perhaps after Kingsbarns failed to go on from an impressive win in this race he has taken a different approach with his better colts and bypassed this race. Last year’s runners were certainly not his top flight animals.
The Mark Prescott horse is fascinating but this is rare territory for his youngsters and the ground is a concern for
Celestial Path
.
All in all a race the favourite should probably take but at the odds I was drawn to John Gosden’s
Snoaco
. He needs to step up to upset the apple cart but he’s won at the trip and on the ground and I felt 12/1 was OK for a small play this morning.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The best horse for the future imo is this
Celestial Path
,he looks a horse who would love faster ground but todays gruelling mile will find him out.So its all about the one who handles this soft ground best and again imo that has to be
Jacobean
,I’m on at 7/2.
The best horse for the future imo is this
Celestial Path
,he looks a horse who would love faster ground but todays gruelling mile will find him out.So its all about the one who handles this soft ground best and again imo that has to be
Jacobean
,I’m on at 7/2.
It’s a big step from a maiden to a Group 1 though Gord. Were it anyone bar O’Brien you would probably think it suicidal but he’s got such a powerful arsenal that his tenth best horse might land this.
The ground might be softer than I thought at first today, and the one who just won the 2.40 was swerving around in the conditions, so I have slight reservations for Snoaco if it’s as bad as that.
Not a race to go in strong on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agree Steve but I’m no fan of this ‘Elm Park’,I think he’s beatable even if the ‘Royal Lodge’ form is the strongest on offer here.I just thought that
Jacobean
looked like a horse who would thrive on real soft ground and that his debut was shall we say not Josephs finest ride,he’ll have come on a ton for that run and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was a better horse than his stablemate who beat him.
Agree Steve but I’m no fan of this ‘Elm Park’,I think he’s beatable even if the ‘Royal Lodge’ form is the strongest on offer here.I just thought that
Jacobean
looked like a horse who would thrive on real soft ground and that his debut was shall we say not Josephs finest ride,he’ll have come on a ton for that run and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was a better horse than his stablemate who beat him.
Yes, this step up to a mile should help Jacobean.
It might be a great competition in its own right to actually identify which ride
was
Joseph’s finest. Let’s just say it would probably be a short, short-list.
I doubt there will be shockwaves running through the Derby market after this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You can see why Royal Navy Ship was pulled out of this, just got turned over at 1/5 on over at Leopardstown anyone would think Joey was on board……
Tupi for me.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
You can see why Royal Navy Ship was pulled out of this, just got turned over at 1/5 on over at Leopardstown anyone would think Joey was on board……
Tupi for me.
Easy headline for tomorrow’s papers:-
"Royal Navy Shi*"
A setback to be beaten by a horse rated 89 you would think, for Jacobean fans?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Straight forward for the Favourite but if he is to taste glory it will probably be back here in the St Leger next year. I would imagine he’ll be a silly price for the Derby bearing in mind O’Brien’s big guns stayed at home.
Jacobean was disappointing and with the stablemate who beat him in their maiden getting turned over earlier, it may be that it just wasn’t that good a maiden he ran in.
Celestial Path has run well given the ground concerns but Gosden’s horse went out like a light after trying to go with the winner early on.
As I said, it didn’t look that strong a renewal and I was tempted by the obvious looking favourite at the early odds. It remains a good race for favourites as Trendyrich said in the opening post.
Early Derby quotes are very varied and confused between 10/1 and 25/1 for the winner. I suspect the latter price won’t last but 10/1 is way skinny for me. I would say 16/1 would be about right all things considered but connections could argue their horse has the right to be favourite after landing the Royal Lodge and this race today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As expected the 25/1 didn’t last. Ladbrokes are the stand out at 20/1 for Elm Park now, with Stan James shielding their testicles, not for the first time by any stretch of the imagination, at a lowly 10/1 for today’s winner.
Stan James are scandalously short on the first four in the betting at 6/1, 8/1, 10/1 and 10/1, when you can get 8/1, 10/1, 12/1 and 20/1 on the same four horses elsewhere. That’s pathetic bookmaking.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Who knows what he ended up beating but he appeared to have plenty of petrol left in the tank and has a likeable attitude.
There seems to be some concern that he didn’t handle Newmarket but would that stop him winning at Epsom?
Personally, I would rather take a chance on him than those at half the odds who have achieved less on the racecourse.
Who knows what he ended up beating but he appeared to have plenty of petrol left in the tank and has a likeable attitude.
I agree with this.
While the manner of Elm Park’s victory wasn’t as visually striking as St Nicholas Abbey’s rout in 2009, I still thought it was a pleasing, resolute performance.
Notice how Elm Park’s ears kept pricking back and forth in all directions particularly during the closing stages? That seems like a horse who’s attentive and willing to learn as his racing progresses.
I thought Elm Park was impressive, the Derby will obviously be a completely different prospect, but it was nice to have my trends analysis help my find and hold the winning ticket as they went past the post.
5 races analysed yesterday, 3 winners came from my final listing and I had Sky Hunter 7/2 as well as Elm Park.
Happy days !! (for a change)
Who knows what he ended up beating but he appeared to have plenty of petrol left in the tank and has a likeable attitude.
There seems to be some concern that he didn’t handle Newmarket but would that stop him winning at Epsom?
Personally, I would rather take a chance on him than those at half the odds who have achieved less on the racecourse.
Elm Park outclassed the field on soft going yesterday. Owner keen to go for the Derby but Ian Balding had doubts when interviewed on C4 as at Newmarket on good ,good/firm places the horse didn’t seem happy in the dip, changed its legs and almost skipped. It is quite big and doubt would be Epsom undulations on fast grounfd.
I’d prefer to row in with O’Brien once he has sorted his geese from swans.
I would agree with the concern regarding Epsom for Elm Park. He looks like a straight-forward galloping track would suit him best.
If you could guarantee cut in the ground on Derby Day it would obviously suit the horse better and inconvenience plenty of others but it is a doubt that has to be considered if planning an ante-post bet.
The old saying says that "If you think you have enough stamina for the Derby, you probably have too much" and it is noticeable that after Australia won at Epsom and the "Egg and Spoon" race that was the renewal of this year’s Irish Derby, they kept him back at 10f thereafter.
It could be awkward for Elm Park if Newmarket is not going to be his track, since he is as low as 10/1 (yes you’ve guessed those odds are with the tiny testicled Stan James yet again) for the 2000 Guineas.
I can’t really think off the top of my head of any horses who didn’t like Newmarket but got on famously well at Epsom afterwards.
Andrew Balding seemed more upbeat than his father regarding Elm Park and stated that he sees no reason the horse should not be a leading contender for The Derby.
Sir Isaac Newton was 2nd to a Dermot Weld newcomer on his debut today after being sent off 8/11f. Only beaten half a length and 7 lengths clear of the rest it was a promising enough start given that he’s taken this long to see a racecourse. I wouldn’t write him off but he has a long way to go to catch up on his stable companions.
My 1-2-3 for Ballydoyle at the moment would read:-
1. Ol’Man River
2. John F Kennedy
3. Highland ReelThat’s just my opinion and much will depend on who progresses best physically during the winter.
Will Elm Park prove better than all, or indeed any, of them next year is the big question?
Elm Park came into the Racing Post Trophy as a worthy favourite based on the form and a less than stellar looking selection of opponents. He’s done the job well enough but looking at his overall portfolio of form he emerges as a steady, rather than exciting candidate. If ground and track conformations are going to be a concern it adds further doubts and doubles the amount of worries we had about last year’s winner Kingston Hill.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I see ruler of the worlds full brother Giovanni canneleto won hugely impressively at the curragh yesterday. Very similar to his brother and not unlike Australia. What a crop of two year olds aiden has. How many train on to make top 3yos time will tell but I can see young Joseph having a lot of awkward choices throughout next season where at least two of the top 5or 6 ballydoyle inmates face each other.
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