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Alderbrook makes a good point about the arbers…
From a bookmaking perspective it has become less about laying the price you think a horse actually should be and more about laying the price where there is some genuine interest, but at which you aren’t just handing out free money to arb players.
The perfect scenario as a layer is when you have a horse you want to lay, say at 7-4 and it is just under that on Betfair – maybe 2.72 – 2.74 so that there is no chance of arbing after commission is taken into consideration.
You then at least know the people you are laying are either have a bet because they fancy the horse, or because they think it may go off significantly shorter and want to trade out later.
The market perhaps didn’t agree with Segal that 15/8 was a fair bet but was shorter due to the weight of ‘mug’ money on the Pricewise horse. In other words, it wasn’t the horse’s chance the market was assessing but the likelihood that the Pricewise horse would trade shorter than the early/advertised15/8.
I am sure there have been other times in the past where Tom Segal has made the favourite value. But because when there has been another value horse in a race, he has not tipped the favourite. With just one race of just eight runners to give a tip for, it is not surprising the only value Pricewise can find is the favourite. Better to tip the favourite if he considers it value, than tip a horse he does not consider value.
If Mr. Segal had worked out the percentage chances to 100% as:
Don’t Panic 42% (11/ 8 4% better than the best price of 15/8
Tell 12% (15/2) Best Price 4/1
Medicine Path 15.25% (11/2) Best Price 11/2
Blythe Knight 12.5% (7/1) Best Price 7/1
Dubai’s Touch 7.25% (13/1) Best Price 12/1
Re Barolo 4.5% (22/1) Best Price 18/1
Smart Enough 4.5% (22/1) Best Price 20/1
Babodana 2% (50/1) Best Price 33/1There is no value bet other than the favourite.
To be a value bet it must be available at a bigger price than his tissue.So the advised bet has to be Don’t Panic.
There is no point Tom Segal putting up a value alternative to the favourite, if he considers no other horse to be value.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHow people have short memories. Don’t forget that Segal had 10 winning weekends in a row. Yes 10. Form is temporary, but class like that is permanent.
I agree David,
Every tipster goes through a losing run now and again. I am sure (as I can be without actually knowing) Tom Segal would be in profit if taking every bet as Pricewise (not just recent form).On the other hand, I used to find he often came to the same conclusion on his value selection as I did from my 100% book. Yet these days that is rare. Maybe he is not as good as he used to be.
Then again, may be I am not as good as I used to be. 
Whichever it is, if Tom Segal wants to "spend more time with his family", then Gingertipster is available.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingDJ, I’ve always been a defender of Tom Segal. He’s taken some fierce abuse particularly on the Hell forum and I’ve never stood for it. I agree with you about his skill.
I just felt that picking a 15/8 favourite, raised in class, with two proven Listed horses in opposition smacked of an unusual desperation and it isn’t what the column is about. A black mark imo.
TDK/Ginge, I dont think anyone would thank me for starting an argument about "value" but I’ve noted both of your posts. And Marb…Collier Rocks! as the young uns say. I’d like to see more of him in the Post.
How people have short memories. Don’t forget that Segal had 10 winning weekends in a row. Yes 10. Form is temporary, but class like that is permanent.
2005 to be fair. An impressive feat, albeit his logic – ignoring draw biases one week, backing ‘one either side’ the next – made no sense.
A tough job though and doubtless Tom’s stats back up he has done a good job at it.
I have seen the Racing Post claim wins with big priced horses for a race. Yet by backing more than one horse, the combined price is significantly lower.
I remember there was a National (either Hedgehunter or Numbersixvalverdie) where Pricewise claimed (something like) a winning tip at 16/1. But he tipped three or four horses in the race, where (adding them together) the combined price was 4/1. No doubt if any of the other three would’ve won they’d claim that individual price too. This seems misleading to me.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingThe Punting High/Punting Low feature has just got to go.
Surely no punter in the world wants to read about some fantastic value bet they weren’t told about!?
I see Simon Rowlands has refused to give us a Punting HIgh this week – I feel like the school bully now
Come on Rowles – you could at least let us know whether you backed that Jarvis thing you highlighted to all and sundry on this forum!
Then again, may be I am not as good as I used to be. 
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