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Madison Du Berlais sports first-time blinkers – which he surely needs for this sharp 3m, judged on how far behind he got in the KG.
Going reportedly bordering on g/s at the moment – Nacarat, how far?
My 100% book for soft going:
Fistral Beach 5/1
,
Kilcrea Castle 5/1
, Nacarat 11/2, Miss Mitch 13/2,
Madison Du Berlais 15/2
, Atouchbetweenacara 18/1, Razor Royale 22/1, Something Wells 28/1, Oedipe 28/1, Private Be 33/1, Le Burf 33/1, Piraya 33/1, Bible Lord 80/1, Ollie Magern 400/1
Backed Kilcrea Castle (main bet) before today @ 13/2. Why didn’t I look at this race earlier? 20/1 last week!
Now taken smaller bets on fistral Beach 6/1 (WH) and Madison Du Berlais 9/1 (VC).
Value Is EverythingFistral Beach does not have a great strike rate, all those seconds. Did nothing wrong that I could see last time when successful here. Before that, the seconds were up against good horses. Might be a slight question mark on temperament but only slight. If he was my only bet it would be each way. 4 lbs out of the handicap but is one of only a few you can see improving their form. Hopefully Ruby can do the weight.
Taken the 50/1 Kilcrea Castle about the National. Good jumper. Ran well last time on soft, first start for Emma, weakening late on. Only 1 1/2 lengths behind Casey Jones when recieving 7lbs in Ireland on good 3m1f. Ran there as if stays 3m well and bred to do so anyway.
Thought was going to be against Madison Du Berlais. Hasn’t seemed of the same frame of mind this year. Got behind in the King George, only running on late. Could not race prominently there and might be important to him these days. First time blinkers could well help in that respect if kept wide (no horses immediately in front / surrounded). Very well handicapped on last season’s form and goes well on sharp tracks.
Nacarat has a good chance, but is too short for me. Ran well enough in the King George, weakening late. That might be due to going with Kauto Star earlier than most rivals, equally could be he only just stays 3 miles. Last years racing Post was on far better ground than saturday.
Miss Mitch ran well at Ascot last time, outpaced at a crucial stage. This longer trip should suit and could yet improve. Not a fan of jockey, needs to get it right. Would’ve liked a saver on her, but price has gone.
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Thing about Madison Du Berlais Ginge is he’s not really had a fair crack at the whip this season so I don’t think it’s fair to question his frame of mind.
He was brushed aside by Kauto Star and Imperial Commander but that was his first outing of the season> He then had an impossible task to beat Kauto in the King George and was ridden accordingly…I would imagine they were cockaloop when he brought home the 2nd place bacon.
His 3rd run at Cheltenham can’t be taken seriously. He has now ran there about 5 times often in very good form but failed miserably every time. I think it’s fair to say he hates the place.
As you rightly say he looks well handicapped and another point would be what else is there for him. Pretty sure David Pipe won’t be holding anything back for Chelters which looks a complete waste of time for him.
I’ve backed Nacarat but I would rather Madison Du Berlais stayed in his box……..I see him as a huge danger.
The place in the King George only tells half the story. When unable to get a prominent position did not really want to chase after the leaders. Not a question of being ridden that way, being pushed along at an early stage. Only stayed on past others who chased Kauto Star. even though second, was long way below form in my opinion.
Value Is EverythingIf it was ante-post marble then no, unfortunately, as it’s not a ballot job just a straight nr.
I’ve settled on
Razor Royale
@ 25/1 e/w. Best run on soft and 7L off a Ryanair horse will have to do if not fancying the top ones, and I don’t!
I don’t see any problem with NACARAT getting the trip in this ground. Has won on soft before and has won on heavy in France and I’m sure that would have almost been a bog!
Whether he can win this off an 11 lbs higher mark is another question….
There is obviously something extra, still unexposed, in Razor Royale, Matt, if NATD rates it the best of his GN chances.
Razor Royale surely better going left-handed? Don’t think he has the requisite class to win but as a fervent NTD supporter I might be on eachway.
Can’t see past MDB or Nacarat though to be honest, ground bit too soft for my initial hope Oedipe.
Could well be, rich – strange to run him here if that’s the case after Sandown though so trainer taken on trust, haven’t heard any comments etc? Think anything could turn in a performance and win really so just for an interest.
Could be right Gerald, only 8 and has solid graded chase form in the book. Would be happy with a place!
gl all
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Nacarat has had a far more conventional preparation for this race so there are few reasons to oppose him, but I’ll match my ante-post interest with a speculative each-way dabble on Something Wells at 33/1.
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Maybe I’m a mile of the mark here but if F Beach wasn’t PN Ruby associated he’d be 16/1 in this field.
I know it gets weight but apart from having seconditis the thing it beat when it did win got stuffed the other day.
Emma Lavelle’s is aparantly a very good horse but unless they have laid him out for this I reckon he wouldn’t be good enough….the same has to be sai about Atouchbetweenacara who won a good race at Cheltenham last season but Nacarat and Madam De Bourlais round here will be going so fast half of these will be beat after 1 1/2 miles.
Forecast anyone?
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