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Think Possol will be ok on soft ground if it goes that way, Gerald. Goodish ground would have been a rare bonus but won’t be going mad on the race either way!
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Marble
Think you’re losing sight of the fact that Nacarat has also improved again since last year’s win.
In his very next race, over a distance half a mile short of his best, he finished close up amongst better horses than he met in the RP chase, and off level weights. A couple of warm-up races this season then, against an even better field, ran them all (Kauto Star apart) ragged for most of the race, even though ridden like a bat out of hell. Madison De Berlais, for instsnce, never saw the way he went until Nacarat palpably tired from his exertions, yet is set to give him 4lbs for the fortunate 4l he finished in front of him in the KG.
RPR and the Official Handicapper both appear to support your view, frankly I’ll be amazed if he (and Fist) doesn’t prove you all wrong (ground permitting, of course).Nacarat now a best priced 4/1, so the 5/1 was a good bet.
Will still go off shorter on the day IMO.
Nacarat is a worthy favourite for sure, but for a bit of value I like
Oedipe
at 16/1. Was a staying on 4th behind old boy Monkerhostin at Sandown after 11 months off so should be spot on for this, 138 is a fair enough mark and did win at Kempton all the way back in 2006, won a decent race at Aintree few years ago and although has obviously had injuries and training problems could be a bit of a dark horse. Razor Royale can win off 143 after some good runs at Cheltenham but was poor LTO, is another ew shout.
Isn’t Oedipe very much a soft ground horse as well, or am I getting him confused with someone else?
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Marb
Sorry to keep banging on, but sharp tracks like Kempton make it easier to carry high weights (4 top-weight winners in the last 10 years in this race, only 2 carried less than 11st.).
Hardly an afterthought either, considering he won the race easily last year, ran so well in the KG, and has been dropped 4lbs as a consequence.Well judged on previous form Oedipe has won on good ground at Aintree and good to soft at Kempton, but has winning form on soft in France, so based on that he probably prefers slightly faster ground. Ran no sort of race in this last year but I was encouraged by his effort LTO after such a lengthy lay off, will hopefully be in contention in the business end. Think Nacarat is worth a few quid at 4/1 though, but will Sam Thomas or McCoy ride? Madison De Berlais would complete my trio of fancies judged on his course form.
Ground will be soft or heavy on Saturday.
I am on Kilcrea Castle (20s and 12s) and Miss Mitch (25s) who both like soft ground. I thought Nacarat would be hard to beat but i’m far more confident now that i know it won’t be good or good-soft which Nacarat would want. Will be hard for him to make all with 11-8 off 158
Been burning the midnight oil:
Half the field wont get the trip come Saturday in soft ground. A third the field wont get the trip in any ground.
Possol stands out here like a sore thumb, he wont be 20,s for the national come Saturday tea time.
Miss Mitch – well there you go, I dont like the victor chandler form a load of donkeys.
Le Burf- Suprised this has not had a mention so far,Lay your shirt on Nacarat wont get this 3 mile in a horse box
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For whatever reason, Kempton rarely gets proper heavy ground. I’ve never been to the course, but I’d suspect the former gravel pit in its centre is a clue as to why. Only once in the past 10 years has the ground been worse than g/s for this meeting. That’s not to say it won’t be Saturday, of course.
Possol must have good ground ETW, at least according to his trainer.- Total Posts 17716
They do tend to get very strung out at Kempton as they do at Aintree, even more so that other courses.
It’s not a course to be getting too far behind in especially on soft ground.
My friend above seems to think Nacarat won’t get the trip but I have no such worries. AP will judge the pace to get most of them in trouble by half way keeping enough in reserve to get home.
Steering job of the season
Very surprised that nobody’s given a serious thought to Madison, loves the course, easily good enough, very capable of beating this particular field and 4 top weighs have won in the last 10 years. Easily capable of running a big one and is excellent e/w bet at 10’s.
You could make a convincing case about probably half a dozen of them, MDB and Nacarat look the stand out two for sure but it is a wide open race. Still like Oedipe but all depends what the ground is like on Sat.
Fistral Beach for me.Top trainer and jockey and after finally winning maybe he do it again.He is the improver in the field.Any thoughts on this horse from you guys.
Fistral Beach for me.Top trainer and jockey and after finally winning maybe he do it again.He is the improver in the field.Any thoughts on this horse from you guys.
At 6/1 prosbly one of the worst bets I’ve seen for a while
Although Fistral Beach finally got his head in front last time it still took a monumental effort from RW to get him over the line, horse just doesn’t seem to like to win. This will be a tough race against some seasoned 3m chasers especially on predicted soft ground.
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