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With Battlecry in the field
Nacarat
isn’t a guaranteed pace-setter, but the former’s jumping worries me a little and I can see Tom George’s grey having a few of these off the bridle turning in. A 12lb rise for his latest victory would seem a little harsh, but Le Roi Rouge (fourth, beaten 14l in receipt of 20lb) has come out and won since and there’s likely more to come from him.
Big Fella Thanks’s temperament is questionable at times and I can’t see that he’s 7/2 favourite for any other reason than he’s trained by Paul Nicholls.
New Little Bric
would interest me though, should he run, off a featherweight of 10-3.
Nacarat
@ 10/1
New Little Bric
@ 40/1 (EW)
Be very wary of Nacarat with regards the ground, think he’s a soft ground specialist, on breeding and form. Also, the market usually speaks volumes when he’s due a good run.
Weather forecast is Sunny Intervals for Saturday as well.
(BBC Weather for Sunbury-on-Thames)
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I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised with regard to Nacarat, Bulwark.
Got the weather wrong didn’t I?
You never know I suppose.
Can’t you blame the Met?
The light rain forecast for Thursday has disappeared. On the other hand, the sunny intervals for today and tomorrow have become cloudy days.
Going currently Good to Soft.
On the way to work I was thinking that because it is above 5C most of this week, then the grass will start to grow, and that will help draw moisture out of the soil as well. However, I couldn’t see much evidence of grass growing in Ashford.
I don’t see that Good ground will hinder Endless Power too much. Won’t it help him to stay 3m?
Haven’t had a proper look yet but I’d definitely be looking to take on Big Fella Thanks. I cant see a speed track that favours fast jumpers who race prominently suiting a hold up plodder like him at all.
gerald I adore your last post. To consider the possibility of fresh grass growth in the outcome of a horse race is beyond a skill. You sir, are an artist!
I don’t see that Good ground will hinder Endless Power too much. Won’t it help him to stay 3m?
Endless power likes good ground, i backed him at aintree last april specifically because it was good and he looked the only horse in the field who wanted those conditions, if he has any chance IMO it will be on good but I’d say he would probably want a slower pace than he is likely to get here.
Have had another read of the race with good in mind thinking there would probably only be a few who should like it, not really the case, and others for good would be.
Gungadu @ 25-1 Handled ground enough to win last year off a big weight, but struggled since, dont fancy him
Stan @ 50-1 In the same boat as Endless power loves ground, probably wants a slow pace and high enough in the handicap.
Big Fella Thanks @ 7-2 Suspect he may handle ground but has never went well on it and wouldnt bet him.
Fleet Street @ 16-1 Definitely wants good ground. Moves very well on his day, up 9lbs for last win but an in and out horse and weak looking in market at the minute.
Battlecry @ 28-1 Not badly priced and raised his game at aintree on good last year, 3 miles on good ground looks to be what he does best, may yet have plenty of improvement in him. Surprised he’s so big a price but there may be a reason.
Possol @ 12-1 Seems best on good, looks to have been laid out for this, not badly weighted, most likely winner, market support would be nice.
Oedipe @ 16-1 Hasnt had good ground since his last win at aintree, but there was plenty of talk about him early in the season, looks to have been laid out for this, could go well, again, market support would be nice .
Lacdoudal @ 16-1 Handles good ground well, has the form, well weighted and hobbs only entry.
Conna Castle @ 16-1 Has run some good races on good ground at what was probably his minimal trip. Ran well enough in the thyestes chase, on heavy ground to suggest he’ll see this out. Originally opened at as big as 50-1, backed into current price, timmy murphy booked in advance, ignore at your peril.
Lashkari @ 25-1 Has been in good form this season, likes good-gd-sft, may yet have improvement.
Fier Normand @ 16-1 – Relatively lightly raced for a 10yo, as seems to be campaigned for better ground, a few decent races lately in defeat, but hard to see winning in one this competitive.
Hold Em @ 14-1 Should go well, had excuses behind breedsbreeze over C+D last time, being slightly supported.
Iron Man @ 66-1 Have always thought this horse has a good race in him, probably on good ground and probably at a good pace if he doesnt go mad at the front well weighted and yard has sent out a few upsets this season already. Down 20lbs from highest mark and worth an e/w try at his price, despite being abismal in this race last year.
Hopefully the market should guide enough to round it down a bit further as the week goes on.
Haven’t had a proper look yet but I’d definitely be looking to take on Big Fella Thanks. I cant see a speed track that favours fast jumpers who race prominently suiting a hold up plodder like him at all.
I disagree. He won at Doncaster latest which is pretty similar- this looks a poor race to me and I think he’ll be hard to beat.
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It would seem that Tony McCoy will ride Nacarat – the 10/1 gets better by the day.
If he’s in form and takes to the ground Nacarat is the most likely winner, when he’s good he’s very, very good, and moves like a champion but that tends to be on softer going, but when he’s good he’s a different horse to the rest of the time. Last time he was good but Ive lost money on him when he’s not. He was gambled heavily at wincanton last year, he was gambled again when he was second on good-soft later in the season and he was pretty strong in the market last time. There is such a difference in the way the horse moves when he’s bang in form to when he’s not that connections know he’s going to win.
I disagree. He won at Doncaster latest which is pretty similar- this looks a poor race to me and I think he’ll be hard to beat.
I’d have a galloping 3 miles at Doncaster on soft as a much tougher test than Kempton over similar. He was able to jump in his own time at Doncaster on the first lap and the entire field was off the bridle towards the end of the back straight on the second lap. He didn’t quicken at all, the rest of the field just slowed behind him and fell away so I think that form is overrated.
The race before at Kempton he didnt look comfortable having to jump at a quicker pace and he wouldn’t have beaten the now rated 144 Fleet Street even if he had stood up. He faces better opponents over similar conditions on Saturday and he doesn’t have the speed to quicken past decent horses like he’ll probably have to do to win this race.
He certainly looks much more a National type.
Hold em (who along with BFT and Conna Castle is one of the few contenders who has seen money in this race right from the opening of the market) recieved a bit of money yesterday but has blue lined on Oddschecker today.
He hasnt been put up by pricewise today has he?
Cheers IS
Do think the horse is fancied anyway, and already had him shortlisted in my potential top 3 as he has the right sort of profile IMO and there has always been support for him, and if everything goes right he could be the winner, just wondering if the support today is genuine or not, as looked more like a nicholls, henderson, or mcmanus gamble, and you dont usually see the other yards move like that in the antepost markets.
Think I’ll take the last of the 66/1 for Iron Man with Paddy Power 0.5pt e/w 0.5pt win.
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I quite liked Hold Em as a hurdler, but I can’t see that he’s going to make an impact in a race of this nature. William Goldsworthy is always positive about his horses, no matter what race they’re in, so I haven’t read too much into his reported confidence.
I’m still very much in the Nacarat camp with McCoy up and am considering a further investment tomorrow.
One thing which may be in nacarats favour is that Fleming walked the track at kempton and reckons he probably wont send starluck for the Adonis, and will decide on thursday whether to run him, so there may yet be enough cut in the ground for nacarat, but I suspect its probably the competetiveness of the adonis field that is putting fleming off, and he is hoping a few are pulled out.
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