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the wexfordian wrote
Only for this episode in recent days, I’d never have realised how many equine flu experts are members of this forum
Pales into insignificance with the number of experts on the subject on Twitter. Such is the nature of the sources of information these days. Worth bearing in mind of course that Twitter starts with ‘twit’…
That aside I do feel there’s a chance the industry will end up chasing it’s tail on this subject. Flu is endemic so there’s no immediate prospect of eradicating it. There’s been no call for movement of horses outside racing to be stopped. Check the population, isolate any infected horses and move forward as soon as possible.
Breeding season is just round the corner with many foals being born now and mares needing to travel to stallions. Outbreak of flu is the last thing needed and will impact on the coverings should this start to escalate. To a certain extent NTD has a point, there are always one or two horses not quite right in a yard. However, the amount of ordinary equines getting this is much larger than other years, with may ordinary dressage, showjumping etc being cancelled. So there is something not quite right and the shut down is correct.
Given that the population of Thoroughbreds are inbred from a relatively small genetic pool is there any evidence that they’re more susceptible to equine flu and do the symptoms tend to be more severe?
Just wondering
Is it me or whenever the so called experts on this equine influenza topic are very vague and just respond like politicians in riddle and just talk garbage. I’m non the wiser hearing from them than anyone else.
I totally agree with Rob. By Monday, when it will have enough evidence, the BHA is going to have to think carefully. If the number of cases of horses with equine flu is little more than single figures then it really ought to get the show back on the road by Saturday at the latest and when further cases come to light, as they’re bound to, just shutdown the yard/s concerned for a brief spell. Unless at any point suddenly scores or hundreds of cases emerge what will have been a ten day break will either have sufficed or done nothing to prevent the spread.
From vet Rachel Rees Bell on twitter
My personal prediction regarding the Equine Influenza testing is that they will find about 70% of active yards have 1 or 2 positive cases. I hope things don’t just go into complete meltdown and instead they adopt a pragmatic approach of how to start micromanaging it #EquineFlu
I’ve heard that Oliver Sherwood has suggested as a worst case scenario that racing could be cancelled for up to six months. Talk about being alarmist…
More here about the equine influenza, apologises if someone else has put the same thing earlier.
Source from Racing Post
The wide-ranging impact of the equine influenza shutdown on British racing was brought into sharp focus on Saturday morning with news around 2,000 samples taken from horses were being processed.
The Animal Health Trust in Newmarket has been flooded with samples from across the country with an estimated 700 of the 2,000 processed so far.
A much clearer perspective on the equine flu outbreak is expected from the BHA on Saturday as the backlog starts to clear and the results begin to filter out. A decision is due on Monday about whether racing will go ahead on Wednesday, and Saturday’s results could prove integral.
Talking on ITV Racing’s The Opening Show on Saturday morning, the BHA’s chief regulatory officer Brant Dunshea said: “As of last night Animal Health Trust had received around 2,000 samples and analysed about 700 of those. We are hoping to be in a better position later today to have an understanding of the results and what that initial analysis looks like.
“There are a range of parameters we are constantly looking at [before a decision on when racing will restart will be made]. We are meeting with our committee every night and looking at information from the AHT. The decision will be made on how many yards and horses may been affected and what that transition back to racing will look like.”
When asked on the prospects of the Cheltenham Festival going ahead as planned, Dunshea added: “It is business as usual in terms of planning for those big events.”
Newbury could not stage its valuable Betfair Hurdle card on Saturday afternoon and clerk of the course Keith Ottesen said: “We raced on January 16 and were due to have a steam clean and disinfection of all stables, so that has been done anyway before this week happened.
“Peter Hobbs [inspector of courses at the BHA] told me all racecourses that have raced since February 2 are having to carry out a level two clean. That’s a full clean, disinfection and re-bedding and that takes quite a few days to do.
“At Newbury we are going to go in the saddling boxes and give them a steam clean, the cooling down water troughs will get a sterilisation, and we will be carrying out some bio-security on all the equipment that comes in contact with the horses.”
Trainer Ian Williams is among the stables under lockdown having had runners at the same venues as horses from the Donald McCain yard, where there have been six confirmed cases of equine flu.
Writing on his website, Williams said: “We have a thorough cleaning and disinfection process which is part of our routine, and we take temperatures of the horses. I have great confidence in this process.
“In a preventive measure we have given all of [our horses] a booster. I anticipate a shortage of these vaccines in the coming weeks.”
He added: “The BHA has done a fantastic job in my opinion and taken correct procedures to contain the outbreak. My concern is the hunters, riding horses and ponies who are not restricted and in many cases are unvaccinated. These cause more of a threat to our sport than any of the racehorses in professional stables.”
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.ITV say the suspicious test has come back negative, so that is some good news at least
Latest BHA press release Sat afternoon
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/press_releases/daily-update-regarding-equine-influenza-situation/
According to the BHA website there are about 14,000 horses in training in GB.
As far as I know about 2,100 of them have been tested in the past few days. Marco Botti told us that from his string of about 100 horses all samples were negative. Now with the Nicholls and Henderson yards also involved in the testing procedure and surely accommodating over 100 horses each, I wonder how many horses from the remaining 170 yards will be tested, if there are only about 2,100 tests at all.
If you take out Botti, Nicholls and Henderson there are just abbot 1,700 samples left and still about 170 yards. Does this mean that the average yard has only 10 horses tested?
The numbers are not easy to understand in my opinion.
So far the numbers are good news, no further cases with about one third of swabs tested (including Menzies) and the AHT is getting through the work. The vet Rachel Rees Bell is clearly wrong that 70% of yards will be found to have at least one infected horse.
Yet, comments from Middleham trainers are negative re resumption:
And the BHA statement is also cautionary (e.g. “…a negative test now does not mean that horse never had this flu…testing of the suspicious horses will be repeated…”).
The BHA’s action has been widely applauded but, having been on the back foot regarding various other issues before this outbreak and having faced criticism for overreacting from a few leading trainers yesterday, it seems to have taken quickly to the defensive. It does not need to justify its initial response IMO, however, we could do without the undue pessimism now emanating. Perhaps we can hope for a rescheduled Newbury on Friday.
This is more like it, from The Guardian:
Equine Flu outbreak is same strain as Australian strain from 2007
Talking about cancellations my train was hit by similar on the way home tonight and I found myself drinking my way through engineeing works in the Spitfire, and having to muscle my way through yards and yards of Cardiff City to get to the bar.
They called racing the uncertain sport on the news and the last gasp stunner in stoppage time was all the uncertainty the Welsh boys wanted. I headed out with a crowd of them having told them I was a closet Burnley fan, and one turned to me and said, here come the crew. About twenty strong thugs owning the pavement with a few shouting their mouths off as an unfortunate passer got smacked viciously in the face and then chairs and metal objects rained down. I turned to the guy next to me as we quickened our step and remarked – “What the hell do they do when they lose ?”
I have a theory about Ken Dodd’s death and felt it might have been prevented if he had stayed in hospital longer instead of going home. I have kept this to myself, but my concern is his bedroom may not have been heated adequately. He wasn’t one to spend.
Horses who contract this nasty virus need an extra blanket and more heat on in the stable.
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