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Queen Mary 2009

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot Archive Royal Ascot 2014 Queen Mary 2009

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  • #11718
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Tom Dascombe seems very keen on Don’t Tell Mary but this race is full of horses that could be anything.

    When she won her first race to say she was forward would be an understatement. She looked more like a seasoned 4 year old than a two year old. Very well balanced she couldn’t have won any easier. That could be down to it being a very ordinary race and no real pressure on her.

    Little Scotland ran in that race and was expected to go close but ran into all types of trouble. I watched the race several times and have my doubts if she could beat the winner but at 25/1 could be worth an ew bet.

    The race at Beverley wasn’t so straight forward but she won easily enough
    but she is definately there to be shot at.

    Brian Meehan has entered Lady of the Desert who looks a real nice filly but he has her entered ion the Friday as well. I like her a lot and thought of backing her AP but I wouldn’t trust Meehan as far as I could throw him. He could go for the easier option and there has been no sign of any cash for her and I thought she would be disputing favourtism for this.

    Rose Blossom ran in was absolutely crap race at Hamilton but that said she looked like a ferrari on legs. Richard Fahey gets his fair share of winners and I see he reckons this could be one of the best he has ever trained. Coming from man who doesn’t make many mistakes I’m convinced he must be very good indeed. I know Hamilton may not be Ascot but it’s bloody stiff and takes a good horse to sprint away from horse the way she did.

    I’m not big on times but she smashed the track record that has stood there since 1972. When I think about some of the horses Jack Berry ran there that have gone on to win at Ascot and elsewhere that takes some doing. She ws also 0.67 seconds faster than the Handicap.

    By all accounts she will run and I doubt if she will go there unbacked

    Rose Blossom ew 10/1 for me

    #233496
    Scottf
    Member
    • Total Posts 53

    Don’t Tell Mary did win well last time and the race is turning in to a fair pointer for the QM but at this stage and at the prices I’ve taken an interest in Misheer of Clive Brittain’s.

    Won an uncompetitive maiden first up very easily and then collected in a listed event at York despite differing underfoot conditions and losing ground as the jockey charted his course. Didn’t beat Little Scotland by as far as Don’t Tell Mary but showed a tenacious attitude to get up, a quality that you may be required in such a competitve race, and I’m sure she’ll appreciate being back on quicker ground.

    I’m hoping Little Scotland will head to the Windsor Castle on the opening day as I think she’ll have a good chance in that.

    #233507
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    Don’t underestimate the speed and quality of the American filly Jealous Again – she worked really well on the Rowley Mile on Wednesday and both John Egan and Kieren Fallon were impressed by how well she has handled the turf.

    #233510
    Anonymous
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    • Total Posts 17716

    Don’t Tell Mary was incredibly impressive in the Hilary Needler, but the time wasn’t anything special and there has to be a concern about her handling a stronger pace. Rose Blossom, on the other hand, clocked a fairly decent time at Beverley but the form doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary.

    On balance I just favour Don’t Tell Mary, but it doesn’t look a race to get too heavily involved with.

    #233519
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I agree with Scott about Misheer. I backed her when she won (was having a real bad day) and she fought like a tiger to win by a short margin. The fact she is up for a fight if it comes down to it can be a big plus in these race.

    I had a look at Jealous Again and while she could be Ok her stable companion Aegean who was supposed to come over hasn’t appeared. Aegean beat her very easily when she weakened in the home straight on dirt. She had gone very fast but she could hardly put one leg in front of the other in the last half furlong. The race was a 50k race Grade 3 but what that equates to here I haven’t a clue.

    On what I saw I doubt if she is seroius contender and if she was their only runner I would hazerd a guess these guys are here for the fun and a chance to see HRH :0) One of their other runners does catch the eye Cannonball (King Stand) has stepped down in distance and up in class and was just beaten into second twice. One race I thought he lost on the bend and it will be interesting to see how he handles a straight course. Looka tough cookie and probably he’s the one they are depending on most. 10ew at 40/1 perhaps ?

    #233529
    Irish Stamp
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    • Total Posts 3177

    It equates to proven group form (albeit pretty weak) in a field chock full of maiden and listed winners Fist. She might not handle the track but AW form translates well to Royal Ascot and I see no reason why the same shouldn’t be true of dirt form.

    IMO Jealous Again is a great bet at 20/1 – she also worked well at River Downs before leaving for the UK so she’s plenty of experience of turf :)

    #233539
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    You could well be right mate. The past winners of this have turned out to be near on usless after winning it and you have to go back to Attraction to find one that turned out to be any good.

    If that turns out to be the case here who’s to say ths filly isn’t as good as anything we an come up with………as I said she didn’t look that much but the 1st and 2nd were along way clear of the 3rd so who knows.

    #233541
    Irish Stamp
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    • Total Posts 3177

    To be fair the Kentucky race is generally pretty poor but she was sent off favourite on the day so clearly showed something. Think she should be single figures myself if only on the basis that she’s shown something in group company which is more than most of these have/will do at any point in the future.

    20/1 was a good price :wink:

    #233559
    Adrian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1041

    Fist,

    Aegean is here, she runs in the Albany over 6 furlongs.

    Kieren rode her when in behind John Egan on Jealous Again the other
    morning.

    Jealous again was the more impressive but she is the speed filly – hence the 5f Queen Mary, whereas Aegean (who as you know beat her in Kentucky) is running over 6 furlongs

    Strike The Tiger runs in the Windsor Castle whilst Honor In Peace runs in either Norfolk or Chesham and Yoagaroo runs in Norfolk.

    They are definitely not here on holiday!

    #233565
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I checked on te RP website and found no entries for Aegean but I stand corrected. Haven’t see the card for the Albany so I take it it’s on the Frday.

    Knowing the bookies they wont be in a rush to put prices up fo the horse until Jealous runs……….if they do and race isn’t too hot I would fancy a bit on at agood price as he definitely looks useful.

    #233578
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    It equates to proven group form (albeit pretty weak) in a field chock full of maiden and listed winners Fist. She might not handle the track but AW form translates well to Royal Ascot and I see no reason why the same shouldn’t be true of dirt form.

    IMO Jealous Again is a great bet at 20/1 – she also worked well at River Downs before leaving for the UK so she’s plenty of experience of turf :)

    I would be very interested to know how you have come to the conclusion that it equates to proven Group form?

    Because I have no idea of any form link I would not be prepared to guess whether she is a good or bad bet at 20/1.

    #233637
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    It’s a group/graded race Stilvi – would be happy to say that on average the winner of the Kentucky Juvenile is as good as the winner of the Queen Mary (who in a number of years has done her running by the middle of July).

    When you’re effectively comparing the form of two or three listed winners (not that impressive) and maiden winners against that of a horse who won a maiden and was runner-up in a Graded stakes then however good she may (or may not) be she shouldn’t be anywhere near the 20/1 mark. IMO it’s ignorance from British punters that causes these foreign horses to be such big prices, most would rather back a maiden winner from Carlisle/Hamilton/Beverley than a foreign invader (unless there’s some major hype behind them).

    #233759
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    On what they have achieved hard to understand why Rose Blossom and Lady Of The Desert are so short in the market. They look ridiculous value compared to Don’t Tell Mary, Misheer and Capercaille.

    #233765
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Rose Blosson breaks a track record that stood for 37 years Her trainer who’s in cracking form with 14 winners in 14 days reckons she’s best he’s ever trained. She goes from 14/1 to 5/1 and you are wondering why?

    Lady of the Desert if you haven’t seen the race ran as green as you could ever hope to see for 3 furlongs then took off like a rocket. She was very impressive.

    Bookies aren’t always right but I think the punters have latched on to these two as having more than a fair chance

    BTW Corals have been going 16/1 9/2 16/1 9/2 16/1 9/2 about DT Mary for 2 days now on Oddschacker……she’s currently 16/1 again…..dare you to ask them for 32k to 2k :lol:

    #233771
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Yes, and I maintain on all known evidence that they are shocking value. At the moment they have just won maidens at second division tracks.

    Some very average performers have held track records in their time so I wouldn’t get carried away with that. I would take a little more notice of Fahey’s comments if he had a history of training Group winners at Royal Ascot.

    The three horses I mentioned have all backed up their debut wins by beating winners next time. They represent solid form rather than guesswork.

    #233795
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Never assume a horse is inferior because he runs at an inferior track Stilvi. There aren’t many bad horses sent to Ascot.

    Conduit ran here: Digibet Maiden Stakes (Div II)
    (Class 4) (2yo) 1m Standard
    £3,238.50, £963.50, £481.50, £240.50

    he’s now fav from the Arc.

    As I mentioned before Jack Berry has had morse than a few Ascot winner most off whch ran at gaff trackes incluing Hamiltion beforehand

    #233799
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Fist – the odds on DTM on oddschecker are a fault on their part rather than Coral. Oddschecker are a seperate entitity to the bookmakers and as such their prices link to a particular part of the Coral website – in this particular case it isn’t the price of DTM but the price of a horse in the Hunt Cup (sorry to be a spoil sport) :(

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