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I’d expect Audience to have a similar ground bias to Inspiral. In that although does go on good-soft wouldn’t want it any softer and a sound surface would be ideal. Draw may be significant for him too, be good if Audience is drawn away from the other front runners. Has seemed to be moved to race alone more than once. I’d expect Havlin will try to race in a different part of the track than most of his rivals.
Value Is EverythingI think that’s confirmed.
My reading would be they don’t think she is as good as she was at a mile, and hope she will be over further.
Hopefully, not that many went in ante-post as it does seem a bit last minute.
Thankfully I didn’t back Inspiral AP as was waiting for her to drift a little after a pundit on Racing Post advised it best to avoid her.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I don’t think it has anything to do with them thinking she isn’t as good over a mile – you can’t judge her on her Newbury run as she just wasn’t seen to very good effect due to a combination of a poor tactical ride and a lack of general fitness that a lot of Gosden top horses seem to have been aflicted by..
Going up to 10F gives her more opportunities (they can always mix and match targets/trips through the season) but quite frankly I was a little surprised that it took them until last year’s Breeders Cup to try the trip – don’t forget she won over a mile twice as a 2yr old so stepping up to 10F really wasn’t going to be an issue for me.
The only problem they may have is getting her to settle (especially if there isn’t a strong early pace) as you could see that she wasn’t fully settled in the early stages at Newbury either despite bring dropped right out.
Her running in the POW certainly adds more spice to that race.
Really going against the ratings here but enough doubts at top of market, to throw a few shillings each way at Docklands. Probably kick myself afterwards but one thing for sure loves this place
A wise man once said ratings only tell you what a horse has done anyway nwalton not what its capable of doing on a given day i.e. on Tuesday. If you’ve got enough doubts about Big Rock running to form then 120 isn’t a particularly high benchmark for a Group 1 for the others and if you think Docklands is capable of getting to that sort of level then its a perfectly good bet. Even if you don’t there’s some appeal in his place odds with a few firms offering 4 places given we know he loves the straight mile at Ascot which some of these may not, he could improve a couple of pounds and finish in the frame. The potential pace setup could really play to his strengths too.
Not sure if I’ll have a bet in this myself. Dolayli is quite tempting at 20s given he’s not been too far off it in group 1/2 company this year but whether he can do it on quicker ground and a straight mile is anyone’s guess. Facteur Cheval is very solid but as I alluded to earlier he’s only rated 120, its not insurmountable. He was sent off 14/1 for the QEII and 20/1 for the Dubai Turf which I think is quite telling. He’s obviously a little bit underrated but he’s also not a superstar. The elephant in the room of course is Big Rock but on quicker ground he perhaps isn’t that superstar, still a pretty good horse mind.
His draw in stall 14 gives Havlin the option of switching Audience to the stands side rail, where he might get the same sort of unchallenged run that he had at Newbury.
His main rivals are all drawn middle to far side in single figure stalls, so unlikely to follow if he did make that switch.
Probably not something that should influence anyones bets, but a potentially interesting tactical option for those of us just having a watching brief with no funds at stake.
Agreed, I made a similar comment at the top of the page AP.
One question though:With Royal Scotsman drawn in 2, right next to Big Rock in 3… And Cairo in 1 having been held up in his last three starts… Would it also be advantageous to Royal Scotsman if Jamie goes more to the far side?
Could this race split into three?
Value Is EverythingIf you can lead the horses around you why would you want to waste energy going off at a tangent? If he is on the front end it will seem as if he is racing on his own anyway.
Good to firm. AUDIENCE 13/2 skybet offering money back as a loser, differing amount per customer. Gosden said he doesn’t need to lead so hopefully Havlin doesn’t get involved with anyone going off like a crackhead. Didn’t fancy he’d stay in the Lockinge but he did and now needs to prove himself over a stiffer finish.
Not as simple as that, Stilvi.
Royal Scotsman came back to form when making the running last time out. Tactics that could nowadays be important to his chance of winning. But Big Rock drawn next to him is also a front runner. So if both Royal Scotsman and Big Rock both go straight and both want to lead, then they could end up going too fast. Whereas if Jamie went slightly to the right out of the gates towards the far side (only “towards” not necessarily to the rail) then the horse will THINK he’s in front, even if Big Rock might actually be a little in front in the centre and Audience might be the same on the stand side. Allowing Spencer to set equal fractions to finish in the quickest time possible. ie Front runners racing away from each other means they have a better chance of lasting the mile in front. Therefore a better chance of winning. It actually “wastes” LESS energy. Because going TOO FAST in order to be in front would just set things up for a closer.Value Is EverythingI can however still see Big Rock being a non-runner if the clerk calls it good-firm.
Value Is EverythingSpencer’s main task is to get the horse settled and travelling on the bridle. If Soumillon is hell bent on going faster than him on ground much quicker than ideal then so be it. I doubt that’s a winning tactic.
Exactly, and his best chance to settle the horse is to go it alone.
Value Is EverythingJust to say that sometimes going off too fast (or faster than optimal) doesn’t set it up for a closer, in fact its what happened in the QEII and the Lockinge, just that others were completely taken out of their comfort zones by that scenario so they couldn’t close.
Wrong TTM. Audience went perfect fractions and his rivals didn’t. Audience’s final fractions were exactly the same as his earlier fractions. It was his rivals that were at fault for letting him go.
Although Big Rock did go “too hard” that his final furlong was slower than his previous fractions; this does not make up for his rivals going too slow and / or not handling the extreme conditions and / or taking a strong hold.
Obviously matters how many of a horse’s rivals can handle a strongly run race on very soft ground and whether those rivals are any good. Had Big Rock gone slightly slower (only slightly) he’d have won by even further.
It’s like Frankel in the 2000 Guineas. He went off far too fast and would have won by even further had he done even fractions… And then almost got beat when doing exactly the same in the St James’s Palace.
Very few horses are so superior that they can get away with going too fast.
Point is that going too fast can lead to getting beat on a horse that should’ve won. Was it not the same jockey on Big Rock as Ramatuelle in the 1000 Guineas?
That’s not to say that going fast is always the right thing to do on a front runner. It worked for Big Rock because his asset at a mile is his stamina. If a front runner’s asset is his speed at the trip then going slower means having a positional advantage and usually choosing when to start the sprint for home.
Value Is EverythingTaken the 66’s for Hi Royal. Hasn’t really come on at all for his early season form last year, and although his run in The Lockinge was just average, I still think the horse has another couple of big runs in him.
He does look up against it, as I said, recent form very uninspiring, and doesn’t look the best draw, but he was a very promising type last year, and I’m hoping the new headgear, and the assistance of Moore can make a difference.
Hi Royal 66’s EW 4Pls
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