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I think this is a terrible renewal with virtually the whole field having something prove.
The big recent mover has been Big Rock 16/1-6/1 since Soumillon was booked. He has recorded by far the best performance, but that was so far removed from anything else, is he likely to get close to it again? Maybe he doesn’t need to.
Personally, I would roll the dice with Royal Scotsman. The market suggests not. Goodwood might be a better fit, but they should be able to get him back in time for that meeting.
Soumillon plus the potential of a bit of rain I’d guess for the price
a few soft going horses have seen a bit of blue appear next to their name
I did small stakes on Royal Scotsman and Witch Hunter, both up against it but like you say its not the strongest QA there has ever been. Royal Scotsman would be short for this if he never ran after the 2000 Guineas last year. He had terrible trouble since but was back to finishing a race at least last time out and in taking fashion. I know that was a group 3 but certainly a group 1 performanceBlackbeard to conquer the World
This is a pretty poor renewal but Audience shouldn’t be the price he is. He may not be able to reproduce what he did in the Lockinge especially if they ride Royal Scotsman to the fore but he was only pushed out at the end and going away, I think that was a convincing win
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Gonna be plenty of pace on here which should suit inspiral
The interesting unexposed one is Quddwah
The son of kingman is open to plenty of improvement
But he looks too short for what he’s actually achieved abd I suspect will be bigger on the day
I love big rock, but his new trainer needs to prove he knows what he’s doing
He ran by some considerable margin the worst race of his life in the lockinge
He was bad in the Lockinge but he was only a couple of lengths worse than Inspiral was and that was probably the worst race of her life too. Its a puzzling one because if they are miles off it again then Audience beating Charyn and Witch Hunter isn’t really group 1 form and anything in the race could win it on their day and run to that sort of level. Ascot’s a very different course to Newbury too, that stiff mile will take some doing for Audience to win it like he did at Newbury. I suppose Facteur Cheval is a Group 1 winner and hasn’t blotted his copybook of late but they think he’s better round a bend.
Inspiral has won first time out, but that was in the Coronation Stakes, after missing the 2022 Guineas because she wasn’t ready in May.
In 2023 she was supposed to run in the Lockinge and missed that because she wasn’t ready in May. Came here first time out and was only beaten a neck.
Is it that surprising she wasn’t really ready in May this year?… Running well below form in the Lockinge.
Should put her spot on for this. However, soft ground would be against her if they have plenty of rain.Big Rock might not be as good this year for a new trainer. However, he did have some excuses at Newbury. Stumbling out of the gates may not have helped. But most of the races on Lockinge day broke Racing Post standard, including the Lockinge. Suggesting it was good-firm, not as the official “Good”. Too firm for Big Rock. If it is on the soft side of Good we could well see a far different display. Even proper “Good” wouldn’t be too bad if connections let him take his chance.
Value Is EverythingQuddwah is not taking part.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Don’t I know it, RTB.
For me – Audience was greatly flattered in the Lockinge and his form is just as likely to go backwards. Making his reappearance there and has a particularly good record fresh. Went straight up the middle which is often at Newbury the best place to be and the other jockeys gave him a head start. Even so many didn’t run to their form (see above). And Havlin got the fractions spot on to run to his best. Not sure the performance was any better than his 3/4 length second to Kinross in the City Of York last year. Likely to be taken on up front and I’d also be concerned if there was any soft in the surface.
Charyn the only one to come out of the pack, but it was no improvement on his own form and neither was the Sandown Mile any better than his Doncaster Mile. Only 1 1/4 lengths separated him and Poker Face at Sandown and PF is 33/1. Albeit the latter showed little in the Lockinge and stable isn’t in great form. One good thing with Charyn he’s proven on a softer surface… But @ 4/1 he’s imo awful value as second favourite… And a word on the outsider Witch Hunter… Yes, he was third in a Group 1, but beaten 6 1/2 lengths by Charyn. That’s no improvement on what he’s done before and well beaten at 7f last week. Why isn’t he 100/1+?
Had a little 6 matched yesterday about Facteur Cheval, couldn’t put it up on my thread because he immediately shortened up. Best 4/1 now and rightly looks like being second fav. Got within 1 1/2 lengths of Paddington in the Sussex last year. If Paddington was in this field and both Inspiral and Big Rock were below form, I’d expect Paddington to win by more than 1 1/2… And after several near misses in Group 1 company Facteur Cheval comes into this from a Meydaan Group 1 victory from some good Japanese horses. Probably isn’t one to win if the best of the best run to form, but is capable of picking up the pieces and if anyone is looking for a safe each way bet he’d be the one.
The other French horse is the progressive Dolayli. Beaten only a length in the D’Ispahan on his first run in Group 1 company last time out. If he can improve again wouldn’t be the greatest surprise. But whether he was a bit flattered in a slowish run race where he raced fairly prominently – by the proximity to Ganay winner Haya Zark, Champion Stakes 3rd and POW third fav Horizon Dore, and (winner) Mqae De Sevigne, winning her third Group 1. If not flattered then Dolayli could be player.
Royal Scotsman had lost his form, looking a bit temperamental with it, but came flying back with a change of tactics at Epsom. However, front running might now be important and if so will need to take on Audience and Big Rock. A mile seems at the end of his stamina and Ascot is a stiffer course. Will probably need a personal best to win. Seems unlikely.
Could Majloom get compensation for his ultra unlucky St James’s Palace run – when I had my money on him? Got no run through when fourth there. Being effective at the same time of year / meeting can be a big plus… But injured and lightly raced since. Some promise when third last time out behind (now non-runner in this) Quddwah and Docklands. Love to see Majloom do it, but needs to make quite a lot of improvement on that run.
However, there are question marks about both Inspiral and Big Rock, but IF (reasonably sized IF) either runs to their best,,, nothing else will get near.
Value Is EverythingThere is still a lot of rain forecast Ginger and expecting the ground will be soft on Tuesday for the Queen Anne. However I will be backing
Inspiral to win.
She has won several times on soft ground before in France and at Newmarket.
After Kieran Shoemark’s brilliant ride on Enable’s full sister Zilfee at Kempton yesterday, I’m hoping he will reproduce that confidence and steer Inspiral home on Tuesday…
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Inspiral unlikely to win on soft ground. She would’ve been taken out of the Lockinge if it rained.
Cheveley Park rep said before that race…. “We’ve got to be realistic. She showed in the Sussex that she plainly doesn’t go on ground that’s not to her liking and this is going to be a watching brief. If it went soft she wouldn’t run. It’s a long season, with lots to look forward to and there’s no point popping her into something that isn’t going to suit her. I don’t know for sure about good to soft and John and Thady will have to make the call.”
Hopefully they don’t get too much rain there next week to significantly soften the ground, the forecast has different opinions atm depending on which site you look at.
I note she’s in the Prince Of Wales too. I don’t think that rule about double declaring at Ascot applies as it does at Cheltenham, in fact I know it doesn’t as plenty have run in two races over the week, indeed Blue Point won both the Group 1 sprints one year. So there’s nothing stopping them declaring her at 48 hours in the Queen Anne on Sunday, declaring her in the Prince Of Wales on Monday at 48 hours, seeing how the ground is and if it improves for the Wednesday running her there instead. This is all assuming the ground gets bad which it might not but it does muddy the waters slightly.
Market suggests Inspiral going Prince Of Wales. Has she got an issue with the straight track because it looks a very winnable Queen Anne? I have a feeling if they felt she was as good as she was then she would be going Queen Anne. That’s the race she was favourite to win. She goes into the Prince Of Wales as third favourite. I had originally thought that the Primce Of Wales might cut up to 6-7 runners, maybe not.
Took 6s on Inspiral hoping last time was just a blip.
Emily Upjohn totally flopped too so some of Gosdens horses were totally undercooked.Inspiral is probably equally effective at a mile to a mile and a quarter, Stilvi.
…And does not like soft ground.
So when it looks as though it will be softer on Tuesday than Wednesday, unfortunately for us it makes sense for them to run in the POW.
However, beware of backing her for the POW, as if it is still riding softer than Good-Soft on the Wednesday I’d expect her not to run in that either. That said, Monday and Tuesday seem dry.
Value Is EverythingAn update from the trainer was given this morning…
Gosden said: “No final decision yet on Inspiral. We’re going through the whole thing. We are leaning towards the Prince Of Wales’s – I can say that clearly and that is probably the direction we will go. Gosden revealed five-year-old gelding Audience, who, like Inspiral is owned by Cheveley Park Stud, is set to keep his place in the Queen Anne. Gosden added: “Inspiral is a Frankel and I trained the mother and she’s a talented filly and the the family has middle distance (pedigree). When she went to California, it’s a fast mile and a quarter at Santa Anita and she flew at the finish. Frankie Dettori had trouble pulling her up. We’re leaning that way with Inspiral but it’s not decided yet.”
Obviously, you are right about ground preference, but I’m not sure there is much certainty as regards what the ground will be next week. Just checked and the ground has now switched to good to firm (good in places). If they miss the heavy showers, or get some strong sun, opening day could be good ground, in which case there would be no reason not to turn up.
Not sure one race on a quick track, beating a horse who had been winning over 1m4f, is sufficient evidence to suggest she’s as good over the longer trip. Looks a risk in race likely to run at a decent clip.
Maybe they have all of a sudden decided Audience is up to the job on his own?
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