- This topic has 31 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Straight after The Lockinge I had a decent each-way bet on Night Of Thunder at 7s with the thinking that he won’t be pushed out any bigger and will almost certainly shorten up to more or less the 5/1 mark come the day. Expectation is to at least collect something as I’m struggling to see an eventuality that has this Guineas winner finishing outside the frame and I still think that despite the obvious class of the top two in the betting the Godolphin colours could be worn to victory. I’m hopeful that he has the beating of most with Cable Bay surely better with a bit of give and a slightly easier test despite finally showing what he’s made of at Haydock. Arod is clearly thriving of late but I see no reason why he should turn around Lockinge form with the Hannon pair and a 2 length beating of Custom Cut in receipt of 5 pounds doesn’t exactly scream Queen Anne winner for me. Aiden O’Brien seems to be on a bit of a fact finding mission with Cougar Mountain and Glory Awaits is possibly even flattered by a mark of 112. Both of Here Comes When’s previous two victories have come on soft ground and a furlong shorter than Tuesday’s mile test; on top of this Balding’s charge still has the best part of 3 lengths to find from Newbury when he had the advantage of race fitness over the winner. Esoterique has’t shown enough since her 3 year old campaign to suggest she could go close in a race of this nature and Clive Brittain seems to have his hands full trying to coach Rizeena back to Group 1 level. The way The Lockinge was run has led many to believe that Toormore, with Hughsie’s help, will turn around form with Night Of Thunder but not myself. I may be proved wrong but I feel Night Of Thunder handle’s faster ground easier than Toormore and will progress from Newbury whereas Toormore is not necessarily guaranteed to given his past for performing best when fresh. Sure there are still the two market leaders to beat but Able Friend could easily find himself all at sea on the course given his size, action and zero history on straight courses. I think he’s the best horse in the race from watching his races since December but traveling is a worry that Freddy Head does’t have. The form from Meydan hasn’t exactly been franked but it was impressive enough to suggest Solow is some horse. It was disappointing that Cirrus Des Aigles under performed last time but like Able Friend, this is the hardest test of his career and comes into it off the back of some hard races already since the earlier months of 2015. Honestly, the way connections have been speaking about Able Friend I think he will win. The jockey is under the impression this is the best horse in the world and if he’s anywhere near right then Hong Kong flags will be flying in Her Majesty’s back garden. But if he’s fails to nab a blue clad James Doyle, I shan’t be too disappointed to be proved wrong.
I think a lot will depend on the pace of the race. If it’s a slow pace and the race turns out into a sprint then Able Friend might have the better turn of foot. A hotter pace though and he gets outstayed by Solow in my mind. Guyon would be better off trying to go a bit early and make Able Friend sprint for more than the 2 furlongs he usually sprints, but French jockeys tend to play their cards late. It would definitely suit his horse if he’s produced early though as Solow is more of a 9-10f horse in my mind. Wouldn’t write Night Of Thunder completely off either, I think he won the Lockinge with a bit in hand and I’ve always had a soft spot for him since backing him ante-post for the Guineas.
I think a lot will depend on the pace of the race. If it’s a slow pace and the race turns out into a sprint then Able Friend might have the better turn of foot. A hotter pace though and he gets outstayed by Solow in my mind. Guyon would be better off trying to go a bit early and make Able Friend sprint for more than the 2 furlongs he usually sprints, but French jockeys tend to play their cards late. It would definitely suit his horse if he’s produced early though as Solow is more of a 9-10f horse in my mind. Wouldn’t write Night Of Thunder completely off either, I think he won the Lockinge with a bit in hand and I’ve always had a soft spot for him since backing him ante-post for the Guineas.
Pace could well be key Sea Bird, with very few liking to race to the fore a slowly run race is a distinct possibility. Although Solow has been prominent before it’s not his usual position – as you say – French jockeys often give their horses plenty to do too. Mile is also a minimum for the favourite, a slowly run mile may not suit him even if ridden prominently. As Chivers points out, Able Friend is rated a pound in front, but the Hong Kong top class performer is usually held up, so may not get the run of the race; giving start in a slowly run race isn’t easy. So who does race prominently?
I’ve taken a speculative wager at 129/1 for Glory Awaits! Second in Dawn Approach’s Guineas probably flattered him but could again be flattered. Shouldn’t really be good enough even with a lead, but being able to kick off the front in a sprint for home is a big advantage and at three figures worth a small bet imo.
My biggest bet is Toormore each way. Two Top class horses isn’t ideal for an each way bet, but they are International horses and as such are not always as consistent. Toormore is usually ridden at or near the pace and only has a neck to make up on stable mate Night Of Thunder from Newbury. Difficult to see why there should be so much between them in the betting. However, do make the latter slight value too given the pace angle.
I’ll also be waiting for in running markets. If (that’s IF) it is a truly run race then Esoterique @ around 20/1 could be worth a bet at halfway.
Value Is EverythingLooking forward to this. Able Friend is some size! However, think Solow will take some stopping.
This race is frying my mind! My instinct was to lay Able Friend and I think I’ll stick to that. I think it’s a much better race than most think as well. And beware beware, an Aidan O’Brien Lockinge-also ran in the Queen Anne. Esoterique is dynamite over a straight-8 (why pitched in here instead of a much easier Duchess of Cambridge?), Toormore & NOT dynamite over a straight-8, Solow will love the straight track although we don’t know exactly how good he is yet. If Able Friend is able to turn up on a new track dimension and beat this lot, he’s a wonder horse I think. Happy to lay at anything around 4.0, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cougar Mountain or Esoterique won. Night of Thunder is a very good horse as well. His ability to quicken twice makes him world class.
This race is frying my mind! My instinct was to lay Able Friend and I think I’ll stick to that. I think it’s a much better race than most think as well. And beware beware, an Aidan O’Brien Lockinge-also ran in the Queen Anne. Esoterique is dynamite over a straight-8 (why pitched in here instead of a much easier Duchess of Cambridge?), Toormore & NOT dynamite over a straight-8, Solow will love the straight track although we don’t know exactly how good he is yet. If Able Friend is able to turn up on a new track dimension and beat this lot, he’s a wonder horse I think. Happy to lay at anything around 4.0, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cougar Mountain or Esoterique won. Night of Thunder is a very good horse as well. His ability to quicken twice makes him world class.
I’m in agreement in some of what you say Zarkava, it’s being talked about as a straight match between Solow and Able Friend, I think there could be an upset here. Don’t get me wrong, I think if AF turns up in the best of health, runs as he has been doing abroad, and completely takes to Ascot and the straight mile then the rest can go home. However, I’ve seen these “wonder horses” who have won before the race starts, Orfevre comes to mind in the arc, and then the bubble bursts.
Solow has looked a brilliant horse, and if the race is run at a very fast pace, he will undoubtedly be there at the finish, he could win this. My only doubt with him is that if the race is tactical and has little pace early, he lacks an electric sprint, he just winds it up from a good distance out and has a fifth gear, that is why he gets considerably longer distances.
So one may not handle the conditions, and one may be tapped for toe when it comes to the finish. I accept I might be grasping at straws, and it might be a match at the end, but at the odds on offer I’m not interested in either. If the wheels come off the barrow, and it being an 8 horse race, and with the bookies offering 1/4 odds, then it might pay to look for something at a decent price.
Cougar Mountain has, in the main, has run like a drain. He is beautifully bred, but has never lived up to the promise shown in his maiden where he cruised to a win. He ran a good race in the Heritage at Leopardstown in April, finish 4th but he didn’t get much of a run, being short of room, but ran on for a decent 4th behind Fascinating Rock. He clearly has had his problems, but he has been constantly run in the top races. O’Brien is a genius, and I can’t see “the boys” sending him to Ascot just to be humiliated, they certainly don’t need the 5th or 6th place money. They clearly think he still holds ability that may not have come to the fore yet. It certainly doesn’t harm his chances with Ryan Moore being in the saddle for the first time.
I know it’s a big “if”, but at 40/1 I think taking everything into account, it isn’t the worst bet that could be placed.
Best of luck guys
Well done SteveCaution, you called it early.
Gutted that Toormore finished ahead of NOT and didn’t get place.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Yes, well done Steve, good call he was a worthy winner. I hope a few jumped on Cougar Mountain at 40/1, he ran a cracking race ad finished best of all, but just couldn’t close the gap on the winner. “the boys” are no mugs :)
Well done SteveCaution, you called it early.
Gutted that Toormore finished ahead of NOT and didn’t get place.
Time is a good one, what you’d expect from a truly run race on genuinely “good-firm” ground. So unless the ground is “firm” (which I doubt) and if my reading of the pace is correct – Hughsie ruined his own chance by going too quick too soon Nathan. Not that he’d have beaten the winner anyway. Also, Solow may well be better than distances back to the placed horses indicate, having tracked the early pace. Placed horses coming from further back.
Value Is EverythingI actually backed Solow in the end, didn’t like the market regarding Able Friend. don’t think the form is anything brilliant, the second and third aren’t up to much. Night Of Thunder the big disappointment for me.
The winner looks special .
As for our Able Friend from Hong Kong . He ran like a hobby horse.The seating didn’t help but I don’t think I have ever witnessed a horse become so unbalanced on Ascot’s straight mile ; he was all over the place.
I hope Solow goes for the Sussex .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Seemed they went next to no gallop to my eyes!
I also think that was really a top class race.
Steve’s a judge!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.