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Gareth
I might be getting my figuers mixed up, but TF have hin on 128 and i presume it’s for the Sussex
<br>By the way, i only gave 124 because of the vey good overall time
<br>I personally think CM is slightly below that overall
(Edited by empty wallet at 4:36 pm on Sep. 25, 2006)
I agree EW that the form of the sussex looks to be overrated but thats the way fast ground races sometimes go when the best horse underperforms.
I must say though that I bet on proclamation in the previous sussex but thought his subsequent rp rating was ridiculous as it looked to me like he was just a first run better than soviet song.
Quote: from Bulwark on 4:40 pm on Sep. 25, 2006[br
I must say though that I bet on proclamation in the previous sussex but thought his subsequent rp rating was ridiculous as it looked to me like he was just a first run better than soviet song.
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<br>Totally agree Bulwark, and people use these ratings in their analysis
I’m not saying the RPR’s are always wrong, because they are’nt, but quite few are
In CM’s defence I thought Spencer took forever as usual to make his move and when you have horses of that quality in front you cannot make ground up on them so you really have to match strides.. Spencer has a habit of getting in wrong on the big day, but Araafa certainly showed his form to be all wrong, but given a better ride CM would have been closer… And yeah I know he’s a hold up horse who has to come off the pace but sometimes you need to make your move a bit earlier.. just like proclamation did in his sussex win
I like bad ratings though as the difference betwen a good rating and a bad rating is what i call "value".
Thats why i couldnt beleive georges price drift on early saturday, i wouldnt have touched him at odds on which really he should have been if the bookies had it covered, if i remember correctly, librettist and proclamation were getting decent support beforehand though.
I also had goodricke at 14/1 last year to beat a well hyped proclamation in the sprint cup.
Bad ratings are one of the things that make horse betting stand out from sports bets, where the bookies take the law laws of probability and quote half of that.
There a plenty of better opportunities to criticise Spencer’s riding than using Court Masterpiece as an example. Ascot’s mile would probably be a shade further than his optimum. I’m not sure how he could have ridden him to get better than third place.
Agreed DJ, i think CM looked as i expected at his best, i do think librettist underperformed though (without getting into the o’brien/dettori thing.)
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Quote: from davidjohnson on 5:06 pm on Sep. 25, 2006[br]There a plenty of better opportunities to criticise Spencer’s riding than using Court Masterpiece as an example. Ascot’s mile would probably be a shade further than his optimum. I’m not sure how he could have ridden him to get better than third place.<br>
Can’t have that DJ.<br> ALL Court Masterpieces recent form points to him needing yesterday’s test as a minimum at the very top level. Had the ground been as soft as forecast, there is no doubt in my mind he would have finished 2nd.<br> He must have made up at least 4l on Araafa in the last furlong, hardly the sign that the trip was too far.
Who would have won between the GW and markofesteem is very much open to question as the way i see it from that that saturday run George could potentially have went the gallop and out-quickened mark of esteem. With the ground in mind george has had a harsher gallop than MOE and thrown down a better turn of foot.
But its because of the fact that the two will never face each other, who would win is not clear. So i think that you must put GWs qe2 performance in the same bracket as theirs as it was easily in the same class.
CM may have made up 4l by coming from off the pace (which is what hold up horses do) but realistically he was outclassed, well beaten and was only ever playing for third place which he should feel more than happy with as i think that if librettist had been in form could have put him in fourth place.
CM was hardly unlucky!
Quote: from reet hard on 7:01 pm on Sep. 25, 2006[br]<br> He must have made up at least 4l on Araafa in the last furlong, hardly the sign that the trip was too far.<br>
But was Araafa slowing down at that time or was CM quickening from their previous speed?
I don’t do sectionals but would hazard guess at the former
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Quote: from Bulwark on 7:10 pm on Sep. 25, 2006[br]CM may have made up 4l by coming from off the pace (which is what hold up horses do)
Thanks for that, hadn’t realised!:biggrin: ÂÂÂ
The ground was CM’s hard luck, had it been slower he would have done outstayed Araafa, exactly as he did at Goodwood.
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Strange how everyone’s opinion seems to be coloured by the RP analysis of this race?<br> Sure, it was a good pace, but Court Masterpiece was never more than 4l behind Araafa at any stage, and despite the general view that Araafa fell in a hole off too strong  a pace, Court Masterpiece actually made ground on him from 4 out, and had him beaten well before the distance.<br> Had Araafa run at a 5f pace surely he would have been well clear, and CM too far adrift to feature until the closing stages?<br> As with Sir Percy, I doubt that anyone could convince me that, in a truly run race, a couple of seconds makes a distance race into a sprint!:o
Quote: from seabird on 8:34 am on Sep. 25, 2006[br]
Bulwark, I think you are just getting a little carried away with your enthusiasm over the style in which George won on Saturday. The way he ambled through the race and cantered into the lead was visually impressive, but he only actually beat Araafa 1 1/4 lengths.
(Edited by seabird at 8:36 am on Sep. 25, 2006)<br>
Ah yes, well Giant’s Causeway must be really sh*t for winning 5 Group 1s IN A ROW by a margin never greater than half a length. And let me guess, Roberto, the only horse ever to beat Brigadier Gerard, is sh*t because he only beat Rheingold by a nose in the Derby?
And what about that Sea Bird eh? To only win the Derby by 2 lengths!!
I would like to quote this from the BBC website –
‘The winning margin was a mere two lengths but the manner in which he demolished the best of the home team stamped him as an exceptional horse.’
You do know that George Washington is a HOLD-UP horse. He ain’t a front runner, and he doesn’t sit just behind the leaders. Dubai Millennium was a front runner/sat behind the leaders, so he didn’t exactly have a long way to go to get to the lead. Not to mention Frankie was pushing him very hard from about 2 furlongs out. I don’t think Mick Kinane moved a muscle til about half a furlong out.
Do grow up people – talk about ratings all you want, argue over whose ratings are better, argue over whether Court Masterpiece is a 124 or 125 horse, argue over what rating George Washington gets.
Argue all you bloody want, but quite frankly, ratings mean NOTHING. Imagine this race over a mile – Horse A has a rating of 119, B has a rating of 121, C has a rating of 120, and D has a rating of 116. You bet on B because he’s got the best rating. But what if the ground is bottomless, and D is the only one to like underfoot conditions. D goes on to win.
So you revise the ratings – D goes upto 120, and the others all drop. But next time they race on good ground, and A wins. The ratings get revised again……..
People that study Timeform ratings on here, tell me – how many races a YEAR actually work out in EXACTLY the same order as the ratings tell you? I’d be shocked if there were more than 30 (bearing in mind you get plenty of races with 4/5 runners). Hell, how many races end up with the top 3 rated horses filling the first 3 places in order?
Why don’t you just watch the races? It’s so simple. Ratings said Proclamation was the best thing since sliced bread. TF gave a rating of something like 132 for that performance I think. And what did I tell you all for a year? 3 races later, it emerges I was right.
I don’t need any numbers to tell me that HR is a brilliant horse. I also don’t need numbers to tell me that I saw something special on Saturday. I watched a brilliant race, contested by 5 Group 1 winners, and I saw an amazing horse emerge victorious, without even breaking a sweat. ‘Half-speeding,’ I believe was the comment afterwards.
What funny little squiggle in TF books represents that quote?
Quote: from seabird on 11:28 pm on Sep. 25, 2006[br]<br>Court Masterpiece needs everything to fall his way (exactly as it did at goodwood)… if the pace completely implodes, taking all the front runners out of the race, then he has a chance to win one and, to his credit, he did when he got the chance… he hasnt shown the ability to quicken in a truly run race and doesnt have the burst of acceleration that only top-class milers possess…
He may not be a truly great miler, but his turn of foot in the Prix la Foret on Arc weekend last year was not exactly slow. I don’t understand the ‘vendetta’ against CM. Is it because he has only become a genuine Group 1 horse in his 6th year so it’s hard to come to terms with?
Araafa may have gone off way too quick in the Sussex Stakes, but he’s still beaten Soviet Song by 2 lengths (who just 6 weeks earlier won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot), he’s still beaten French Guineas winner Aussie Rules by 3 lengths. And Aussie Rules went on to also lose to Librettist…….by 3 lengths!
And is 3rd a bad result in the QE2 for a 6yo? He has still beaten Killybegs, a Celebration Mile runner-up by a NOSE, he has still beaten Proclamation and he has still beaten Librettist. He has met Proclamation twice this year and beaten him twice. And wasn’t Proclamation supposed to be a ‘genuine Group 1 horse’? Or have people changed their minds about that? ;)
So as I said before, argue about ratings – see where your Timeform books and RPRs get you at Cheltenham and Aintree……..or were Newmill, War of Attrition, My Way du Solzen, Star de Mohaison, Numbersixvalverde, etc all top rated?
Don’t you think every single top rated Timeform horse would be odds-on favourite if the ratings worked?
Rememer the thread on a horse called Cav Okay a few months back after his debut? Wasn’t he supposed to have exceptional speed figures? Oh, and another question – where is he now? I will tell you.
He hasn’t won a race since. He managed to achieve a RPR of 40 (for those who give a damn about ratings) in the Weatherby’s Super Sprint when he finished 18th, and 16 1/2 lengths behind Elhamri.
THAT is how reliable ratings are.
Yup, i just re-read it and I’m happy with that :biggrin: – Back to bed for me!;)
(Edited by jackane24 at 1:29 am on Sep. 26, 2006)
Quote: from reet hard on 1:16 am on Sep. 26, 2006[br] Strange how everyone’s opinion seems to be coloured by the RP analysis of this race?<br>
<br>Think some people may have their own interpretations of how a race is run and how it unfolds reet . where not all sheep, yer know
These opinions may vary, but thats ok, because this forms the market and layers thinking that the Pace didn’t implode, sees Echo of Light being offered at 5-2 in places and Araafa being offered ast 9.0 on the exchanges, next time :cool:
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(Edited by empty wallet at 1:42 am on Sep. 26, 2006)
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