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How about Nahoodh if the rain does fall?
Close 2nd to Lush Lashes last time out, great turn of foot to win in the soft stuff at Newmarket at the July Cup and could really challenge if given the right ground
Nahoodh would have to improve quite a bit to beat the principals and, good filly though she is, seems to be exposed. I don’t see the going as helping her one way or the other, as long as it is not extremes. The 1000 was not soft.
Mark
Hi Mark,
You may be right – I just have this feeling that she prefers the softer stuff. Look at the state of the ground at Newmarket for the July Meeting and she put in a great performance.
Dropped down a bit following that run but then bounced back again to a very credible 2nd behind Lush Lashes (and ahead of Carribean Sunset, Halfway to Heaven and Listen) in Ireland last time out.
You’d have to agree than the current market price of 16-1 is a good EW price if the rain does fall between now and Saturday.
16-1 is a barmy price for a filly who:
1- Through a trendline of Goldikova (on GS) is only two lengths behind HTN
2- Knocks off 6 3/4 lengths on Lush Lashes when given softer ground when compared to their run just three months prior to the latest run
Interesting price to say the least
Nahood just isn’t going to be good enough whatever the conditions she’s about 10lbs inferior to the principals.
She wouldn’t win if she started now take it from me
Trainer states Nahoodh is unlikely to run as her main target is the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland or possibly the Sun Chariot.
Gosden also reports Raven’s Pass "has not been drilled for the race" as his main target is the Breeders Cup so the race is to bring him on for that.
Probably best to avoid both.
I think Aidan’s team will be doubly determined to win this one – especially as all the talk has been about Tamayuz.
As a course and distance winner ( and hopefully the ground in his favour ), I will be sticking with Henrythenavigator to repel the Gallic upstart.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Gosden is always pessimistic, pointing out negitives before the race. Rightly so in most cases. O.k. I would’ve liked him to say "Raven’s is A1", but he’ll never say that. His main target is the Breeders Cup but it should not hinder him here. Can’t believe he won’t be trained to win.
After (or before) the Fillies Mile (Rainbow View) I bet Gosden says "she’s unproven on firm ground, May is a long way off, anything could happen between now and then", etc. All are true, and well worth saying, but there are positives and negitives about every horse.
Some trainers concentrate on the negs some on the posi’s.
Whatever he says, unless I can see in the paddock Raven’s needs the race, I’ll back him at current prices.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIf she runs, and if there is a suprise then Nahoodh is (imo) the most likely to provide it. Whether at 16/1 she has a better than 6% chance of winning (considering liklyhood of running as well) I doubt. If she does start around 16/1 or 20/1 that (imo) will be fair odds, no more than that.
At 9/2 I think Ravens has more than 3 times the chance of the filly (3 x 6% = 18%, 9/2 = 18%).
Mark
Value Is Everything"After (or before) the Fillies Mile (Rainbow View) I bet Gosden says "she’s unproven on firm ground, May is a long way off, anything could happen between now and then", etc. All are true, and well worth saying, but there are positives and negitives about every horse."
I believe it’s called ‘keeping one’s feet on the ground’.
Obviously Johhny Gos is a firm believer in The Law of Sod.
Colin
Agree with the support for Raven’s Pass. After all, close 2nds at Royal Ascot and Goodwood entitle him to finish very close to Henry – and that’s assuming that Henry can reproduce his best Summer form.
However, there’s the Fortune factor. Although he made all the running to win at Goodwood last time out, I still fear that coming round the bend on Saturday, Fortune will have Raven’s Pass behind Henry and Tamayuz.
To win from that position would require some performance.
Agree with the support for Raven’s Pass. After all, close 2nds at Royal Ascot and Goodwood entitle him to finish very close to Henry – and that’s assuming that Henry can reproduce his best Summer form.
However, there’s the Fortune factor. Although he made all the running to win at Goodwood last time out, I still fear that coming round the bend on Saturday, Fortune will have Raven’s Pass behind Henry and Tamayuz.
To win from that position would require some performance.
Perhaps not if the race has been run at real pace . But I wonder about Jimmy’s pace judgement, mainly because of comments he made after the Sussex Stakes . Fortune said words to the effect that he didn’t want the race to be served on a plate to HTN and he was fully prepared to take the bull by the horns and take the race to the rest of the field if the event was being run at a crawl. But look what happened. A Ballydoyle horse set what was , apparently, only a steady pace , but Fortune still chose to drop RP in behind HTN and let the race develop from this position .
I think Fortune over the years has been a good judge of pace but this year he has got it wrong a few times.
Mark
Value Is EverythingCheers David – couldn’t agree with more with that analysis. Am probably too big a fan of Raven’s Pass, and was very frustrated with the Sussex Stakes result.
Considering going Saturday, great day’s racing.
my ratings
146 henrythenavigator
143 ravens pass
142 tamayuz
132 sabana perdida
124 winker watson
122 honoured quest
120 racingerwill back henrythenavigator to win
Wondered how you have three pounds between Henry and Raven’s Tenbob? Surely on form ratings it should be closer than that? Raven’s is getting closer with every run.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAnyone going saturday? Got my tickets today, fingers crossed on the weather!!!
I’ll most likely be there; can’t wait.
Wondered how you have three pounds between Henry and Raven’s Tenbob? Surely on form ratings it should be closer than that? Raven’s is getting closer with every run.
Mark
my ratings are not weighted just points
based on speedfigures, racingpostratings,money won,highest value race placed,last race class distance and weight,going,collateral form,trainer form course and current,jockey course form.race trends.
all fed into my computer and bingo.
i am not clever enough to work out weight ratings etc
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