- This topic has 100 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Happy enough with Lord Glitters at 14/1.
I see Without Parole is not as well fancied despite the argumentative bluster.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Don’t be so hard on yourself, Steve.
Without Parole has run twice as if something is wrong with the horse. Give him a break.Value Is EverythingEvery single time a horse you gave backed runs below YOUR expectations, there is ALWAYS an excuse.
It’s never a case that you just picked a wrong un’
Whatever.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am not making an excuse for the sake of it, Steve; it’s just how “form” and “times” work out.
There’s no point me looking for an excuse if if there is none. Because if that were the case I’d not come to the right conclusions often enough when studying form… and therefore would not select enough value horses to make a profit.Let me see if I can explain how the St James’s Palace form did work out in the Sussex:
If Without Parole had put up a performance in the Sussex a few pounds below what I thought he put up in the St James’s Palace Stakes; then I may well accept my analysis of the Ascot race was wrong. But that’s not what happened. If (as you believe) the Sussex Stakes is a true measure of Without Parole’s ability, then his Ascot form would need to be 14 lbs (a full stone!) worse than I’d rated it… And if Without Parole put up a performance 14 lbs worse than I thought then Gustav Klimt must have also put up a performance 14 lbs below what I thought he put up in the St James’s Palace, ditto every other runner in the race… And how would that form work out?
Without Parole was beaten 6 1/2 lengths in the Sussex.
Without Parole had beaten Gustav Klimt 1/2 length in the St James’s Palace Stakes…
So if both WP and GK would’ve run to form in the Sussex then you’d expect Gustav Klimt to be beaten 7 lengths by the winner.
And yet Gustav Klimt was beaten just a nose more than 2 lengths in the Sussex.Nobody is arguing that Without Parole is a world beater. Indeed, even if running to his Ascot form he’d still been no better than 3rd in the Sussex, behind Lightning Spear and Expert Eye. ie imo The Ascot one two showed their true abilities in that race and therefore WP should at least be rated a 1/2 length superior horse than GK at their bests, not over 4 1/2 lengths inferior to him (as would be the case in the Sussex). 1/2 length in front of Gustav Klimt means had Without Parole run to his best in the Sussex he would have finished 3rd. To suggest my opinion of Without Parole has not changed is incorrect. Had WP been 3rd at Goodwood it would still have been disappointing for those of us who believed him capable of improving on Ascot. Although there is just a small chance he will one day fulfil Ascot promise once getting back on track – depending on what ailed him. There’s obviously also a question mark as to whether he’ll be capable of running to his best next time out – given two poor runs at Goodwood and York – and a chance of being kept to 10f. So of course he’ll be available at a bigger price than likely runners likely to run to form.
You said earlier, Steve; that you “like to stick with the most likely scenario, rather than wander off into fanciful speculation”.
What’s the most likely?
A) WP ran below his best in the Sussex whilst GK ran pretty much to form?
Or
B) WP ran to form in both St James’s Palace and Sussex, putting up a rating in the St James’s Palace that has never before been good enough to win, with every other runner equally poor. Yet somehow putting up a time performance of Group 1 quality in a race that was not apparently of Group 1 quality.; whilst at the same time Gustav Klimt improved a stone between Ascot and Goodwood?Can the St James’s Palace form really be as bad as you make out, Steve? When the horse that beat St James’s Palace runner-up Gustav Klimt a nose in to 3rd spot in the Sussex was… Lord Glitters. The horse which – on the back of that performance – you’ve backed to win this race.
Value Is EverythingWith Alpha Centauri and Lightning Spear seemingly unlikely runners have taken a chance on Saxon Warrior @ 10/1 with B365. Shortened up pretty much across the board today. SW is probably not good enough taking on the best 10f horses but would stand a better chance against an inferior group of milers… And with the type of action usually more suited by softer ground could easily return to his best with typical October going; possibly even improve if AOB is in better form.
Value Is EverythingGT, your + my (followed you blind on it) bet on SW is looking good now
pricewise anyway.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Nightmare…..Whilst AOB admits it himself, you have to wonder how much of it is their chit-chat for his stud career…never know now.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Recoletos is 3/1 Fav for this race and that’s skinny enough for me. The horse didn’t run his race at Royal Ascot due to a sample being taken before the race and the horse has a needle phobia which upset him to an extent that he was effectively beaten before the stalls opened.
When he was 8/1 I believed he was better value than Without Parole at the same odds and now the Gosden horse is 14/1 to Recoletos’s 3/1. Stablemate Roaring Lion is generally 8/1 but Paddy Power have him 14/1, presumably because they think he will go Champion Stakes, yet much will depend on what happens with Cracksman in the Arc.
Lord Glitters is nibbled in a few places but in general punters are preferring Expert Eye but the Stoute horse has work to do with Recoletos on a pound worse terms this time.
I’ll just keep my fingers crossed for Lord Glitters and hope that Roaring Lion goes to the Champion Stakes.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After my Saxon Warrior bet’s gone down am going to keep out of this for a while longer. Recoletos isn’t bad value on “form”, but – as it stands – none of this lot would be capable of winning an average renewal so may be best to look for something likely to progress. Recoletos’s form although the best of these imo isn’t progressing. Chance will also be compromised if there’s a lack of pace… And not sure he’s as effective in Britain either. Expert Eye didn’t have the best of runs when placed behind Recoletos, has home advantage this time and is one of the most likely to show improvement. Trouble is am doubtful about his effectiveness on a soft surface, so not an ante-post proposition this far out. Lightning Spear goes on anything, although not sure a test of stamina (soft) would be ideal. Is very much over-priced if he were to run. But that’s the point of the 12/1 tempting punters in. Judged by trainer’s comments he’ll be going abroad; crazy when considering he’s not a good traveller and suspect there’ll be a change of plan. If not then it’s possible a change of plan could be on the cards for owner-companion Roaring Lion. Gosden will imo have Cracksman for the Champion. RL has speed enough to be equally effective at a mile and not sure to stay 1m2f on soft ground (although action suggests will be at his very best on a sound surface anyway). Their other stable companion Without Parole ran a much better race than of late; although 6th was only beaten a little more than 2 1/2 lengths by Recoletos. Probably not quite good enough to win this. One at a massive price am keeping my eye on is Saxon Warrior’s stable companion Gustav Klimt. After being quite dismissive of his chances earlier in the season. If he can run right up to his previous best to get within 3/4 length of The Tin Man over a vastly inadequate 6f (badly outpaced early and then stayed on)… Is it possible there’s more improvement to come back at a mile? Or was he just flattered; in a favourable position in an overly strongly run race? 25/1, but Foret could also be an alternative target. Those on Lord Glitters at big prices have done well, but now possibly the worst value of all @ 8/1. Better than recent USA run, but his form is exposed as just short of top class. On two of this season’s form lines he’s about the same horse as Beat The Bank… And Accidental Agent has a (possibly fortunate) verdict over both of them; AA and BTB available at almost double the price. Even with a good course record it’ll be a poor QEII if Lord Glitters wins. I’d be interested in Lincoln winner Addeybb if getting softish ground, but he’ll need it so best to wait. Beat Stormy Atlantic further in the Bet365 than Beat The Bank did in the Celebration Mile… And the Haggas horse is fresh and lightly raced enough to have more improvement in him. Market could still change enormously before off time.
Value Is EverythingMilers this year not all that and take a chance that this horse drop back in trip go for it
ROARING LION 5/1
Been one of best horses this year at 1m2 but a strong run 1m should not bother him got a feeling he could run here instead of champion stakes
Taking the ground into account I have backed CENTURY DREAM at 20/1 and ADDEYBB at 8/1.
Century Dream is a massive price and will love the ground and IMO has been running on ground to firm for him pretty much all season and still ran well in his last three! 20/1 HUUUUGGEE!!
Addeybb has also been crying out for the ground to soften up and providing he is primed for this will go close!
If you fancy LG then you have to give the two aforementioned a big chance too with the formlines tying in!!
I can’t see RL running in this Recoletos IMO wants further. EE is unreliable.BTB and LS are consistent enough but IMO not good enough to win this and WP will hate the ground!
I know loads of you wont agree with this but I am a layer of the front three currently Recoletos RL and LG for the above mentioned reasons and fully expect the prices to change massively come Saturday.
Good Luck Guys
I quite like your Century Dream pick Raymo at the prices…
Why don’t you think Roaring Lion will run here? If he runs this weekend i think its here. Ground would be my main question mark, i’d fear it might blunt some of that turn of foot.
However, in saying that i think he’s streets ahead of this ability + form wise.
I’d be keen to take Recoletos on, i think he’s a little overrated.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!
pricewise anyway.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.