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I think Lord Glitters is a standout bet @ 20/1 if running here.
Watching a replay of Goodwood he was going as well as anything, and would of gone mighty close with a clear run. Put up an amazing performance to win at the meeting last year and if he was trained by AOB, Stoute or Gosden would surely be half the price.
Quite a good chance Alpha Centauri could miss the race if heading to the Breeders Cup as well
I did Lord Glitters each-way at Goodwood and thought he was going to just miss out on placing but he managed to get there late.
Despite not getting a clear run, he reversed form with Beat The Bank from the Summer Mile at Ascot and previously he was second in the Queen Anne, where he narrowly finished in front of Sussex winner Lightning Spear. The formlines tie him close to the best in a non-vintage season.
I’d give him every chance of a place but the 20/1 disappeared a couple of days ago and I missed the odds. 14/1’s is still OK I think.
The ground would be a huge concern for me with Alpha Centauri. Her trainer said last year after the Moyglare that the filly hated the ground but still managed to let her run on the same surface in the Guineas trial, where, rather unsurprisingly, she still hated it. It seems much more likely that they will get her ground in the Breeders Cup.
Without Parole went up 10 lbs for beating Gustav Klimt in the St James’ Palace but that race hasn’t worked out well and in general I think 3YO generation are not great this season. Without Parole ran a stone below the mark awarded in the Royal Ascot contest and some people reckon that can be explained by having to make his own running. Aye, aye, I like fairy stories myself.
Lightning Spear is not the most regular of winners and despite having “Deserved to win” last time, I feel it all fell right for him on the day, as much as anything.
I’ll take Lord Glitters at 14/1. He’s been improving from when trying to give 8 lbs to the winner in the Lincoln and he’s consistent. He won’t mind cut in the ground, whereas it would scupper Alpha Centauri.
Hopefully all that Glitters IS gold.
Lord Gary Glitters 14/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Without Parole went up 10 lbs for beating Gustav Klimt in the St James’ Palace but that race hasn’t worked out well and in general I think 3YO generation are not great this season. Without Parole ran a stone below the mark awarded in the Royal Ascot contest and some people reckon that can be explained by having to make his own running. Aye, aye, I like fairy stories myself.
Steve, what do you think the reason is for Without Parole running below par at Goodwood?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Without Parole sweated up and may be that made the difference? Never looked happy from an early stage. May be he doesn’t like leading? Some don’t. But even if he’s not the horse some of us believed and even if 10f suits better now – Sussex run frankly too bad to be true. ie Beaten far too far out to be anything like his true mile form. Hope all is ok with him. At this stage I wouldn’t take 10/1 with doubts hanging over him, but there was distinct promise of better to come at Royal Ascot. Horses are not machines and too early to dismiss Without Parole out of hand.
Think you’ve got a good bet there, Botchy. 20/1 Lord Glitters considering the run of the race was against him at Goodwood, fact he acts on possible soft October ground and run well there before.
Alpha Centauri is a worthy favourite. Current 9/2 will look massive if turning up. Likely to be lass than half that price. But (and it’s a big BUT) not hard to work out by that 9/2 she’s an unlikely starter. Bookmakers trying to entice punters in. What with going concerns and owner loves the Breeders Cup Mile. Trouble is bookmakers have reacted accordingly, with shorter prices for her rivals than they’d be giving had Alpha been a probable runner. So there isn’t imo as much value around as ought to be.
If Without Parole doesn’t make it to the QEII then (if either Cracksman or Enable turn up in the Champion) the stable’s Roaring Lion could run here instead. Has speed enough to be fully effective at a mile. Saxon Warrior I’d guess more likely for the Champion. Expert Eye probably better than his Sussex second shows, but not convinced he’ll be as effective in seasonal October ground. Accidental Agent a fortunate winner of the Queen Anne – pace favoured those held up. This is overall a substandard year for milers and take out two good ones Minding and Ribchester – Lightning Spear would already have won a QEII and does act on soft. Do wonder whether he quite gets home over a mile on real soft ground though. That said, although if turning up one or two of the three year olds already mentioned may have scope to improve past him. As it stands at the moment… Take Alpha out and Lightning Spear is currently the best miler around. Getting a run for your money is half the battle with ante-post betting and many at the top of the market have that hanging over them. Simcock’s Sussex winner is likely to run. If able to get the 14/1 I’d just take LS over the same price LG as the current each way value.
Value Is EverythingSteve, what do you think the reason is for Without Parole running below par at Goodwood?
I like to stick with the most likely scenario, rather than wander off into fanciful speculation. Of course, some theories COULD be true but it’s very difficult to base anything scientifically on only one piece of data.
I am always loathe to trust a rating when it has only been achieved ONCE. To be meaningful in scientific terms we normally need a lot of repetition to say anything with a reasonable degree of certainty.
In the specific case of Without Parole, his ratings with the Racing Post went as follows:-
94, 111, 110, 120, 106
If we ignore the St James’Palace run, Without Parole hasn’t run that far below his previous 2 runs. Gabr finished second to Without Parole in the race that concerned me going into Royal Ascot with 12/1 Ante-Post on the Gosden horse. In the end I collected on the bet but I felt a bit lucky to do so.
Gabr was beaten 5 lengths further in the St James Palace than he was when behind Without Parole on their previous meeting, however the Racing Post reckoned that he had only run to 1 lb below the form of the previous run on 107. Isn’t there a chance that Gabr ran a good bit below 107? His latest start saw him running to 86 on RPRs.
Wootton and Tip Two Win also ran absolute shockers next time up and only Gustav Klimt ran anything like it from that race. Gustav Klimt is not exactly setting the heather alight, his only win this season came in a Listed race with 4 runners, on heavy ground at 7F.
I simply feel Without Parole could be overrated on his St James Palace winning performance. You need more than one performance at or very near your best effort to give confidence that the form is sound.
Others can feel whatever they wish and I won’t pillory them for it the way they do with my opinions.
Without Parole will not get near Alpha Centauri if she runs anyway, she readily landed the Marois today and I doubt they are sweating about the Gosden colt. I actually did Recoletos each way in that race today, as there was a bit of cut in the ground, which I thought would suit him better than the going at Royal Ascot and he was decent odds. He easily reversed form with Accidental Agent but was no match for Alpha Centauri, although he did have to give 10 lbs to the best miler in Europe, so he’s done well enough there today to give himself a chance to land something good in the autumn if he gets it proper soft, which I believe he needs.
Boylesports go 7/4 for Alpha Centauri now, and that’s not for me with the possibility of soft ground. Lord Glitters is 10/1 now and so is Recoletos. I would back both of them in preference to Without Parole at the same odds.
That’s my two bob worth anyway Jack and I hope it answers your question to some extent. This game makes monkeys of us all on a regular basis.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
SAXON WARRIOR 8/1
If he wins at York then not go here but if not i get the feeling a drop back to 1m ideal for him best performance come at this trip
Alpha Centauri not turn up here not just ground but Breeders cup mile is her main target and horses run in this race then go to America bad record so she skip this race.
I like to stick with the most likely scenario, rather than wander off into fanciful speculation.
In the specific case of Without Parole, his ratings with the Racing Post went as follows:-
94, 111, 110, 120, 106
Anyone can believe what they want to believe. But when a horse has only put up one performance that looks/looked top class, this is where comparing times can be enlightening and gives scientific analysis. Comparing the St James’s Palace Stakes time with other Group 1 races (both on the day and the week) reveals it would’ve been almost physically impossible for Without Parole to do that time without improving significantly. ie Without Parole put up a time of 1 minute 38.64 seconds, if that was only worth 111 or even 115 – then other proven Group 1 horses in other Royal Ascot races would’ve done times far (and I mean FAR) superior. Some put up superior times, but nothing to suggest Without Parole’s performance only worth a 111 or 115.
Yes, Alpha Centauri is the better horse – especially with a 3 lb sex allowance – and being out of form in comparisson to Alpha Centauri also means the filly has a much better chance still than Without Parole. Of course whenever a horse puts up such a poor performance – looking physically amiss at Goodwood – there is a probability next time he’ll also be below that Ascot run. But time comparisson shows it is far from “fanciful speculation” that Without Parole put up a good Group 1 performance at Ascot. Indeed it is extremely likely. Therefore, scientifically speaking imo infinitely the most likely scenario.
Value Is EverythingYawning heavily in North Scotland at the moment.
Nothing is “infinitely likely” in Horse Racing. Infinity is not quantifiable anyway. In Mathematics it is impossible to reach infinity, it can only be approached.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yawning heavily in North Scotland at the moment.
Nothing is “infinitely likely” in Horse Racing. Infinity is not quantifiable anyway. In Mathematics it is impossible to reach infinity, it can only be approached.
This is a discussion forum using the written word, Steve.
Have you never used hyperbole to make a point?
Using an exaggerated term to make a point is a valid statement. Not to be taken literally as it would in a maths exam.Point am making is the time Without Parole put up was comparable to other Group 1 races both on the day and during the week. ie The only way that Without Parole did not put up a Group 1 performance is:
A) If the clock went wrong in that race or all the other races.
If anyone wants to hand time it be my guest.B) If the distance of the race was shorter than advertised or the other Group 1’s further than advertised.
Just about possible I suppose.C) if there were NO other truly run Group 1 races at the meeting…
…And we know C is highly unlikely because in races that are not truly run, horses have more energy for the finish – with a faster closing sectional. Sectional Timing experts have shown that there was no (or very little) quickening of the pace in some Group 1’s with similar times to Without Parole’s. So the logical conclusion is they were truly run and therefore comparable.Of course there are Group 1’s and there are Group 1’s. Without Parole is not imo in the Frankel or Enable class or even Alpha Centauri’s (yet), but – given the evidence of the clock – Without Parole is immeasurably more likely to be a proper Group 1 horse than he is not to be.
When a horse fails to live up to expectations of course the rating can be reduced. Timeform upped Without Parole 8 lbs from 117p to 125p in the St James’s Palace, before reducing down to 123 after the Sussex. That is still just 1 lb less than Saxon Warrior’s Guineas. Not that WP ran to 123 at Goodwood – horses don’t run to their best every time. The “p” left off now because there’s a doubt about whether he can improve after running as if something wrong with him. It would be unwise to reduce the rating significantly given timing evidence from Ascot.
People are free to have their own ideas of Without Parole’s ability, but to call believing Without Parole’s Ascot performance a good one “fanciful speculation” is imo itself fanciful.
(May be immeasurably is a better word than infinitely for any literalist).
Value Is EverythingJack, I tried to answer the question that YOU asked ME.
Sadly a rude and obsessed person has butted in and messed up what should have been a simple case of you asking for MY opinion, ME giving MY opinion, and then YOU choosing whether you agreed with it or not.
It’s a shame that people can’t respect that, when someone asks for one particular person’s input, then it should be left for that person to respond to the personal enquiry.
If you had just asked generally for opinions, then anything goes, but when it is specifically aimed at ONE person, it’s only polite to leave it for the named individual. It’s just good manners.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oh, Steve; for goodness sake.
This paranoia is eating you up.
I did not respond to Jack; I responded to your answer in which you called an opinion I share “fanciful speculation” and say of another of my opinions “Aye, aye, I like fairy stories myself”… Why am I not allowed to respond?“Fanciful speculation” and “fairy stories” and yet you also say “Others can feel whatever they wish and I won’t pillory them for it the way they do with my opinions”. Won’t you?
Then you made a comment about my post: “Nothing is “infinitely likely” in Horse Racing. Infinity is not quantifiable anyway. In Mathematics it is impossible to reach infinity, it can only be approached”.
Therefore, I’ve tried to explain why and what I meant by that expression. Why is that wrong?
Once again, you put forward your strong opinion (which is fine) but throw a wobbly when it’s challenged.
What reaction would there have been had I called an opinion you share “fanciful speculation/fairy stories”? You’d have blown a fuse. All I want is you allow me to respond.This is a thread about the QEII; we both can say what we think about any possible runner – including Without Parole. You can not stop me from doing so on the basis of someone asking you a question.
Please stop these attacks on my character and ruinning threads.
Value Is EverythingPretty certain Simcock said they were heading to Prix Foret then Breeders cup with Lightening Spear now they have his G1.
Alpha Centauri is going for the Matron Stakes next and she will stay in training next season.
The 15th September Matron Stakes is a fine spacing for the QE II, but the QE II to Breeders Cup would mean racing on 20th October and then again on the 3rd November.
It would seem that the Matron and one of the other races would be the sensible choice as it would surely be a bit much to run in all three contests.
The Racing Post have Without Parole only 4 lbs behind Alpha Centauri on ratings. I think she is about 10 lbs superior myself.
Amazingly, Elarqam is only 20/1 in places after another flop, this time at Salisbury, as evens favourite.
Mark Johnston said he was very, very hopeful and that he would be disappointed if Elarqam finished second today. He need not have worried, Elarqam finished 4th
There was a day when we would have looked at a Salisbury card on a Thursday and seen Andre Fabre with a runner in a Group 3 race and thought to ourselves “That’s surely a wages job” but Plumatic was 3/1 today with the heavily disappointing Elarqam an Even money shot.
In the end Plumatic gave Elarqam 6 lbs and a cosy 4 length beating. The Johnston colt must be one of the biggest disappointments of the season, with plenty people feeling he had a serious chance in the Guineas.
There has been plenty money for Recoletos after the good run behind Alpha Centauri and I found out recently that the trainer felt the horse didn’t run his race in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot because he was tested before the race and the horse has a morbid fear of needles. The trainer believes the horse had pretty much run as his as the stalls opened that day.
Wouldn’t it be nice if useful information like that was shared with punters BEFORE the horses next run?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With Alpha Centauri’s ground dependancy, would have thought the BC Mile may have come into calculation – no guarantee she will get her ground at Leopardstown next month and the QE2 in October well we know what a bug bear soft ground has been at that meeting.
WP run in the Sussex was pretty lamentable but I did roll my eyes at connections saying that there was no pace being the issue, you made the running yourself (although you took a dickens of a long time to get over from the outside draw) and basically coasted along without setting a strong gallop to try and suit your horse – no point complaining afterwards as you could plainly see once the decs were in there was a pace issue.
Now the likelyhood was that it wouldn’t have mattered what he did as the horse cut out worringly quickly once pressed and with him also seemingly needing fast ground I don’t see the conditions at York for the Juddmonte suiting him, currently good (good to soft) in places after 33mm of rain Monday. I doubt he will make the QE2 based on likely ground conditions.
All in all the QE2 is up for grabs big time, I think both Recoletos (10s) and particularly Addeybb (20s) if the ground came up soft would be interesting.
This paranoia is eating you up.
Put a sock in it Ginge.
As for the race itself I wouldn’t be confident about backing anything at this stage.
If forced into a bet I’d go with Lightning Spear, versatile regard the going and no real superstar in the division other than Alpha Centuri who may not get her going and a possibility of running in the US. No Minding or Ribchester’s about for him to contend with.Blackbeard to conquer the World
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