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Fame and Glory was beaten at Leopardstown by STS.However it is important to remember that it was FaG’s first race of his winter campaign at a distance two furlongs short of his best distance. You have to be at your peak and over your best distance to win Group One races.Also Aidan’s horses improve from their first run. People seem to be willing to ignore those two facts. I think they are important when rating horses for the Ark.
Imo. Sea The Stars will have no problem at all staying the Arc distance. Though the Derby wasn’t the quickest ever run, he certainly didn’t appear to be anywhere near the end of his tether – in fact he was picking up at the end, as he also was in some pretty stiff 10f tests this season.
Whether that makes him a good thing is a moot point; I certainly wouldn’t take his Eclipse defeat of Conduit literally and, that run apart, he remains unproven against the kind of top class older horse he’s likely to meet in a normal Arc.
Intriguing race, by the end of which we may know he’s a real superstar but, if he doesn’t win, I’d be reluctant to put defeat solely down to the distance.Top class older horse such as??? I believe this is a weak 4 year old generation with the loss of the best of the generation last year. Ill be surprised if this isnt a rout by the younger generation and realistically, STS should win. Obviously there are a couple of reasons why he mightnt.
SHL
People have doubts about the horse.
The Ground?….i dont believe he will have any problem on the ground, please tell me where in the Form Book he won’t go on soft Ground. He raced on soft ground in Ireland and hacked up doing handstands. French Soft Ground is Good ground over here. The going descriptions are very misleading sometimes in France.
The Track?….do we believe the Track will coz much trouble…its a straight forward track..there is only a worry if he gets caught in at the rail but the Arc does not look a twenty runner affair. It looks maybe about 10 horses could be the final decs.
The Distance?….Ran on a very stiff 1m2f in soft ground in Ireland. He was going away much better than the supposed stayer Fame and Glory. He looked better every yard he went. No doubts on stamina side.
If Sea The Stars runs to his best he will win the Arc…the problem is that how will horse react to 5 Group 1 level wins in a few months…he must be geting tired and only if he underperforms will he get beat. Hopefully he won’t
We also have to put the Conduit theory in perspective.
His King George win isn’t good enough to place in the Arc i must admit. He raced against stable mates and a couple of rag Group 1 Winners. The fact he struggled to get by Tartan Bearer is worrying for me…i wouldn’t have 7/1 surely 12/1+ is good value. If Tartan Bearer and Ask was to line up in this race you get 20+ on both.
Worryingly for me is Ryan Moore…i not sure he has the tactical nous around such a track. He will have to come from behind and i not sure he is the man to do that. If Fallon was on then we have a real interesting snippet to the race.
If you look a the Jockeys that won the race there the cream of the crop that have had major success before.
2008/03 Soullimon
2007/05 Fallon
2006 Pasqiuer
2001/02 Dettori
2000 MurtaghPesiler/Kinane/Detorri then dominated the race until 94.
Only Thierry Gillet is a jockey out of place in that company aswell as probaly Souillimon at the moment.
Moore doesn’t stack up to them at this present time.
Also Sir Micheal has never won the race…that’s another worrying trend.
Really the more you scratch the surface 7/1 looks like someone is taking the PIISSSSHH
The Distance?….Ran on a very stiff 1m2f in soft ground in Ireland. He was going away much better than the supposed stayer Fame and Glory. He looked better every yard he went.
No doubts on stamina side.
Agreed. The Eclipse, the Juddmonte and the Champion were all run at a furious pace thanks to Ballydoyle. The horse didn’t look like stopping in any of them 1m2 races. People harp on about his only run at 1m4 which was slowly run but I am of the opinion that he’d have won further at Epsom had there been a stronger pace. They simply weren’t going fast enough for STS in the early stages of the Derby.
He’s out of an Arc winner and Cape Cross has had plenty of 1m4 winners. Provided he’s not gone over the top which is a minor concern, the Arc should be a fairly straightforward assignment for him.
People have doubts about the horse.
The Ground?….i dont believe he will have any problem on the ground, please tell me where in the Form Book he won’t go on soft Ground. He raced on soft ground in Ireland and hacked up doing handstands[/color:3ekfvstr][/size:3ekfvstr]. French Soft Ground is Good ground over here. The going descriptions are very misleading sometimes in France.
Of course that is what most punters will think and that is where STS price is false IMO. Ok they went a slow gallop in the Derby but Sariska ran a similar time and Sariska is a machine on soft ground so I would very much doubt him beating her(on soft). Then there is Stacelita who could be even better on softer ground(Her trainer rates her almost unbeatable). They’ve both won Group1’s on soft albeit not the highest quality like they were doing a canter on the gallops. Can you tell mewhich race he hacked up doing handstands.
I can guarantee you Oxx is running scared of the fillies on softer ground and knows STS will get stuffed come the ARC. PS I am one of STS biggest fans.- Total Posts 17716
We also have to put the Conduit theory in perspective.
His King George win isn’t good enough to place in the Arc i must admit.
Maybe not, neither was it anywhere near his Breeders Cup form.
His connections have made clear that the Arc and Breeder’s Cup have always been his main targets this season, and SMS insisted he’d improve as a 4yo, which was why he was kept in training, so it would be dangerous to judge him on his form thus far this season.
Write him off at your peril.- Total Posts 17716
I would love the ground to come up soft because as a betting proposition that would make it very interesting. If the ground was good or faster then STS would be tough to beat and there would be no value for punters considering a number of horses are closely matched on that type of ground and one could quite easily beat STS, it has happened before. If it did happen the bookies would win again.
However if the ground was soft or good to soft (soft in places) with visible cut from previous races then IMO 4 horses would seriously enter calculations. Even if STS did run in this scenario I wouldn’t mind because I believe he would get beat. The 4 horses would be Conduit, Sariska, Stacelita and Youmzain. Different F/C combinations could result in a serious profit. Lets hope for a bit of rain
Stacelita
While I admire your enthusiasm for your namesake, she’s unlikely to get her ground and highly unilkely to stay the trip either.
If I were you I’d cut my losses, as at the moment she’d be a cast-iron place lay in my book.Frankie Dettori reckons Sea the Stars himself, although none of us on here would like to suggest that ANY jockey or mate of one, would be in cahoots with owners/exchanges/tipsters etc., no-siree no absolutely not![/color:3d3w18hv][/size:3d3w18hv]
We also have to put the Conduit theory in perspective.
His King George win isn’t good enough to place in the Arc i must admit.
Maybe not, neither was it anywhere near his Breeders Cup form.
His connections have made clear that the Arc and Breeder’s Cup have always been his main targets this season, and SMS insisted he’d improve as a 4yo, which was why he was kept in training, so it would be dangerous to judge him on his form thus far this season.
Write him off at your peril.I like conduit although I felt the BC that he won wasnt that good. Eagle mountain, which I backed just didnt stay and the third horse was hardly a world beater either.
SHL
"Of course that is what most punters will think and that is where STS price is false IMO. Ok they went a slow gallop in the Derby but Sariska ran a similar time and Sariska is a machine on soft ground so I would very much doubt him beating her(on soft). Then there is Stacelita who could be even better on softer ground(Her trainer rates her almost unbeatable). They’ve both won Group1’s on soft albeit not the highest quality like they were doing a canter on the gallops. Can you tell mewhich race he hacked up doing handstands.
I can guarantee you Oxx is running scared of the fillies on softer ground and knows STS will get stuffed come the ARC. PS I am one of STS biggest fans."Wow this is complete nonesense…Sariska is a soft Ground machine…no she is a bottomless ground machine. She can run when its like a bog…the ARC is on Good ground this yaer so what your point?. Stacelita is a very good filly but she isn’t near the Great Sea The Stars…whats her rating high 120’s?..she has 11lb to find at least. STS Hacked up in the ICS…how can you say he didnt he could have won on the bridle if he wanted completly different league to the oppostition…he won doing handstands. John Oxx isnt running scared if he was he send the animal to Newmarket for the Champion Stakes and not to the ARC…..Your STS biggest fans then i hate to see the detracters
Did you not hear the interview Oxx gave after the trials saying STS would not meet Stacelita on soft. Well i’ll let you explain that for one for me then.
Oxx won’t let STS face anything on soft, so I doubt he’s running scared of Stacelita!
Oxx won’t let STS face anything on soft, so I doubt he’s running scared of Stacelita!
http://world-horse-racing.blogspot.com/ … aint+alary
Check this out and while you’re at it check out Sariska’s Irish Oaks win. Why would Oxx who lets say knows a thing or 2 about Horseracing even mention Stacelita in the same sentence as STS if she is so inferior as some of you seem to think?
It is true the ground in Ireland is heavier than Longchamp but that doesn’t mean Sariska is a plodder. However if the ground is good to soft on the softer side or worse I’m 90% sure Youmzain will be in the top 2 or 3.Stacelita
While I admire your enthusiasm for your namesake, she’s unlikely to get her ground and highly unilkely to stay the trip either.
If I were you I’d cut my losses, as at the moment she’d be a cast-iron place lay in my book.I haven’t actually backed anyone at the moment not an Ante-post person. However we all will find out about the ground she doesn’t require heavy ground just some cut so she can get her toe in. I said this before i’d be shocked if she didn’t get the trip,
She was tiring in the final furlong in the Vermeille. At the beginning she was too keen had a poor draw so had to expand extra energy to get to the front. This would lead people to believe she had the run of the race (completely false). She didn’t like the ground obviously wasn’t fully wound up, Dar re mi isn’t a bad yardstick imo she can improve at least 7-10 lbs which wouldsee her go very close.
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