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That other thread is discussing last year’s race. Let’s start fresh.
Current market (best odds available):
4/1 Sea The Stars
6/1 Stacelita
7/1 Fame And Glory
12/1 Conduit, Vision d’Etat
16/1 Beheshtam, Le Havre, Cutlass Bay
20/1 Casual Conquest, Fuisse, Tartan Bearer
25/1 Adlerflug, Aizavoski, Ask, Cima de Triomphe, Gan Amhras, Masterofthehorse, Rip Van Winkle, Soldier Of Fortune, Youmzain
33/1 barCurrent bets.
Beheshtam (16/1 – Stan James)
Conduit (12/1 – Ladbrokes)
Spanish Moon (33/1 – Stan James)Sir Michael seems to have an embarrassment of riches for this race and/or other season-ending title races (Breeders’ Cup, CXHKIR, Japan Cup etc)
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I’ve already backed Stacelita down to 6/1 from 16/1, and have had a smaller interest in Vision D’Etat at 14/1 (though I don’t envisage anything other than the place part of the latter bet being of any use).
Reputations will either be confirmed or shattered during the trials, but at this point in time Stacelita is a stand out. Sea The Stars is unlikely to run given the unpredictable ground, but Rouget’s filly has no such limitations and could be difficult to beat – the likes of Fame And Glory, Le Havre, Casual Conquest and Tartan Bearer certainly hold no fears.
I wouldn’t underestimate Fame and Glory – Derby not run to suit, otherwise unbeaten and looking better the further he’s travelled. He’ll be a major player at Longchamp if he gets there.
No way will Sea The Stars win. His Derby form isn’t as good as his Guineas form IMO. That could be down to the slow early pace but then you’d have to suggest he would improve over the trip for a faster gallop. Can’t see that being the case for a second.
Stacelita, Fame And Glory and Conduit – its between those three nothing else is good enough.
I’ve already backed Stacelita down to 6/1 from 16/1, and have had a smaller interest in Vision D’Etat at 14/1 (though I don’t envisage anything other than the place part of the latter bet being of any use).
Reputations will either be confirmed or shattered during the trials, but at this point in time Stacelita is a stand out. Sea The Stars is unlikely to run given the unpredictable ground, but Rouget’s filly has no such limitations and could be difficult to beat – the likes of Fame And Glory, Le Havre, Casual Conquest and Tartan Bearer certainly hold no fears.
Spot on Equi – half the fun of ante-post betting is working out what will run. In Stacelita’s case it was very obvious straight after the Diane that there’d be only one race for her – the Arc.
With FAG (post Epsom at least) there were any number of targets, same with STS (though he’s more than likely to run) and Tartan Bearer and Conduit – SMS likes a run in the US and with the Man O’ War and Turf Classic around then as well as the Canadian International I could see them running over there.
I’ve taken three horses. I’ll refrain from taking anymore because i’m just gonnae stick to these and hope for the best.
Stacelita 8/1
Le Havre 54/1
Conduit 13/1Vive la france
http://i42.tinypic.com/35a6ftc.gif
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I couldn’t back Stacelita with someone else’s money. She’s no Zarkava and fillies really struggle to win Arcs without the class of last year’s winner. Stacelita certainly does not possess Zarkava’s level of ability.
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My other major problem with the filly and her chances of winning an Arc? She’s an on pace runner who’ll be carting the field up to the Coolmore rabbit employed to help F&G.
NO HOPE!!!!
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Behave yourself Red
Would like to think she did that lot would be tailed off in the ArcIts an obvious point but Stacelita will sure be at the head of things and there was a pacemaker in the Diane and Lemaire was pretty sensible there posting a fast time, so I expect a pacemaker in The Arc shouldn’t be a hindrance for her.
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A couple of things in her fav are her age/sex allowance and the fact fillies tend to improve more than the colts from August through to October.
3 year olds have a cracking record in the race hence Conduit is a a massive 12/1 for a race he looks certain to be going for.
I’ve grabbed him EW as if he goes close or wins on Saturday his odds will at least half.
Fame and Glory at 8’s was snatched up which is no surprise and the’ve gone for him again today and is now fav.
The French also have Vision D’Etat who finished upsides Ask last year can’t surely win.
No doubt they will come up with something else before the race.
I just can’t see anything that will cope with Conduits speed if he gets the run of the race the track looks perfect for him.
Soft ground could go in Fame and Glory’s favour as it would asual conquests and that could be very much ib there fav. Especially the former getting his weight allowance.
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Yes I saw the Diane demolition but the Arc is a different kettle of fish doing the donkey work out front against boys and older animals. She would need to be better than Zarkava for mine to win an Arc with that racing style.
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Has Adlerflug been retired does anyone know?
Fractured cannon bone mate would assume so.
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