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hi all, brand new to trf so please forgive any niavity,had a break from horses for a while but am just toying with them again until i find suitable encouragement to dive in fully again. bet on golf with limited success (stato`s heaven)but only one real true love
remember having some success following `progressive` horses, as referred to in racing post…difficulty came in trying to form guidelines to make meathod/system viable, any suggestions would be greatly appreciated..large or small, simple or not, thanksI hope you get some handy replies
Searcher
, sadly most of my picks are regressive,
well that’s the way it feels
Please keep us posted should you start picking winners etc.
Billy's Outback Shack
thanks billion, when tried before my starting position was runners who had won minimum of last two starts and were noted in racing post spotlight as `PROGRESSIVE` under correct circumstances, pretty good win percentage, as most were up in class/weight/both, their sp was often much better than expected for 2+ time winner, problems for me arose when factoring guidelines ie. how high a jump in class ( d-c/b e-d/c/b ) etc c, d, going, ratings, speed figs, only seemed to cloud the issue, even tried to build in some vdw principals but then work got in way but now have time to reasess. basic principal of `progressive` horses is sound as(assuming recent run) form/fitness guaranteed. back to tinkering and head scratching i suppose.
Hi
Searcher
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There has to be some bright spark who has access to all the stats but it will be interesting to know: –
Runners having won previous two races and going for the hat-trick, just how many succeed
Billy's Outback Shack
several years ago i went thru 3 years of results using superform (end of season books). over that period the strike rate averaged approx 20% but included odds-on winners too, which as a personal choice i never back, problem was linking RP `progressive` comment previous results of 2/3/+ time winners and thus being more selective. as previously said, work commitments finally put paid to this system before it got fair trial but always thought there was something to work with. i have about 6 weeks to try to evolve it before work restarts, was hoping for some good ideas to help before that happens. once guidelines settled on it will be easy to trial, qualifier should have won minimum of last 2 races and be mentioned as `progressive` in RP spotlight, simple so far. but too simple ??? LORD LANSING..lingfield 3.05 would be worth consideration, i`m not a fan of a/w and not a strong enough mention in RP to put up as a bet but its this type the system is based on.
good decision to leave alone in the end as lord lansing lost.Hi Bill
Figures from HORSERACEBASE for 2003 to 2011
Turf Flat
953 winners from 5110 runners 18.65% strike rate
All weather
497 winners from 2008 runners 24.75% strike rate
National Hunt
1210 winners from 5220 runners 23.18% strike rate
Hope this helps
Winnersforu
That’s interesting
Winnersforu
and good of you to dig them out.
I hope it helps
searcher
a bit and who knows there could be a system lurking in there somewhere.
PS Now all we want to know is – did they make a profit?
Billy's Outback Shack
many thanks winnersforu, excellent effort !!
i do remember that on a/w, sequence horses are more common and odds often more restrictive, which may explain the percentages to some degree. (high % of odds on etc.)
as for billions question re profitability…..it now becomes more complex.
there is certainly a basis for a system perhaps based on improvement in ratings rather than relying on RP spotlights term `progressive`. my search for guidelines was always aimed at knocking out LOSERS, not just highlighting WINNERS.
looking at tomorrows runners..likeliest look to be..
haydock 3.15 king fontaine N/R
others worth a look…
ascot 1.50 l`accordioniste
haydock 2.40 wymott N/R
wincanton 2.50 requin
please understand these are not tips at this stage as this is very much in the developement stage(again) therefore win or lose this can only be looked at as a learning curve (for me )
thanks againhttps://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdHczYnAzMG03bHpHVVI1MkRnQjktU1E&hl=en#gid=0
A little more meat on the bones.
Now!
Who was it that said CLASS 7 races were for donkey’s
It looks like there is a profit to be made down there.
Billy's Outback Shack
thankyou discretedata, that will help and is very interesting.
does anyone have any suggestions for useful sites re all individual racehorse RATINGS ? (not RACE ratings) in particular rise/fall of each horses rating from one run to the next (min last 2 runs) preferably non-subscription at this stage, grateful as always… `searcher`
only one of interest on sunday
leopardstown 3.50 EphorusAnother way of spotting a progressive horse if you subscribe to Timeform is to look out for those whose rating has a + after it for its last three races. Three +s in succession is a pretty good sign of a horse on the upgrade.
It’s also more subtle than the Timeform ‘p’ as it doesn’t show in the master rating only the individual race ratings so they aren’t so likely to be overbet as the the Timeform ‘p’ horses.
like the idea of `+` in preference to `p` tuffers but timeform cost is prohibitive at this stage.
winnersforu & discetedata…could your figures incorporate..(same as before)(min winner of last two races) `and` BHA official h/c rating for last win resulting in +7lb/10lb/14lb rise
would that even be possible ??like the idea of `+` in preference to `p` tuffers but timeform cost is prohibitive at this stage.
winnersforu & discetedata…could your figures incorporate..(same as before)(min winner of last two races) `and` BHA official h/c rating for last win resulting in +7lb/10lb/14lb rise
would that even be possible ??I think the point about the three +s in a row is that the horse may not have won any of its last three but the +s show that it is progressive whether or not it has won.
I suppose you may be able to use a method by looking at whether the horse’s handicap mark has risen after its last three runs as a similar method.
Hi Searcher
Figures from HORSERACEBASE
same OR 633 WINS 2288 RACES 28% STRIKE RATE – 273.03
7lb rise 231 WINS 1014 RACES 23% STRIKE RATE -160.40
10lb rise 91 WINS 447 RACES 20% STRIKE RATE -42.43
14lb rise 24 WINS 121 RACES 20% STRIKE RATE -21.55
Winnersforu
TUFFERS…only reason i concentrate on `winners` is to limit the range of any search. i totally agree with your comments re placed horses etc but this `system` if i`m not careful can develop a life of its own and become completely unmanagable(as it did in previous incarnation) admittidly i had no acces to internet etc in those days but even now my own IT limitations restrict me from total exploration….lol
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