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Hi guys, firstly wondering whether you think it’s possible to profit from flat racing as a career and who on this forum does? Also which methods are we all using for studying form? And which factors do you believe are most important for profitability? I have had success with creating my own speed ratings and assessing the pace of races but haven’t paid much attention to weight, ability of jockey or trainer patterns etc so wondering how you approach those?
There’s a lot of question in there so apologies in advance but it’d be great to hear people chip in their tuppence worth as I know that there are many ways to skin a cat. Thanks a lot.
Hi Sasoon and welcome to TRF, hope you stick around.
I’ll move this post to the “Trends, Research, and Notebooks” part of the forum, but won’t do so, until I know you’ve seen this message.
Hi Venture,
That’s fine if that’s where it belongs, no problem and thanks. Also if you can throw in your views, whether it be flat or jumps, then that’d be great! Thanks a lot.
Finding the nature of the race, via pace & front runners is massive on the flat.
Draw can be also, in certain big sprints etc.Horses can get blocked in also, which is a good angle 99% of the season if not overly obvious.
Otherwise I think the approach is the same as jumps with using form study, handicap marks, good and back jocks/trainers.Time analysis is probably more accurate on the flat also as there’s generally less variables, but a lot of people are doing that these days and it rarely goes un-noticed if one clocks a very good time.
Work hard (if you want to take your punting serious) never think you have this game cracked as it has a funny way of biting you on the backside(and wallet)
Take big note of the going, imo the number one factor in racing , if it don’t act, its a million to win.I only play in pattern races and big handicaps (class2 and above),watch plenty of racing and believe your eyes and not your ears.
GL its a hard and at times lonely old life if you are taking it seriously. Even now at my ripe old age I spend at least four five hours a day racing related. Remember one advantage we have over the old enemy is we don’t have to back in every race, so stay patient and disciplined.
Finally there are plenty of great posters and knowledgeable people on this forum, take a bit form each of them and you wont go to far wrong.
Read the post from nwalton
Read it again……from those very few lines,everything you need to know.
An angle from a national hunt man…..many countries race left handed only,we don’t,take a little time out during the season,or looking back over previous results,very very little written on the subject.
GL
Afternoon chaps, hope you’re having a good one!
Kev – what methods do you use to identify pace and front runners and which race distances do you find it easiest to judge? And does anyone use a numerical approach to this, like keeping track of a particular course for the first couple of furlongs where possible? Or trying to split the race up in to furlong segments etc?
Mr Walton, cheers for the advice!! Do you love the big handicaps for particular reasons like competitive e/w markets and more of a challenge etc? And do you opt for a higher grade of racing as the horses hold their form more and make it easier to judge? Also, how do you tend to break up the 5 hours you spend looking at racing and if you used to spend even more time how did you use that time?
Thanks a lot,
Sassoon
Also, whenever you other ladies and gents have time to post then please do so, apologies if I’m too inquisitive ;P
All the best,
Sassoon
Videos, videos and more videos normally. Watching back previous runs – there’s no sub for hard work. At The Races also do a ‘predicted race pattern’ with front runners etc. which helps also if struggling for a little bit of time or to see if they agree with you.
Draw bias can be hard to work out as it’s normally the pace angle that makes one side of the draw look like a bias when it actually isn’t but sometimes there is and that needs factored in.
I’d say it matters more in the sprints, 5 & 6 furlongs although saying that the mile handicaps are also affected a good bit by it.
I wouldn’t be one for trying to keep a strict numerical analysis of something like that, generally racing can’t be simplified as easily as that.
Nwalton’s post is brilliant and very relevant.
Hi Kev,
Thanks a lot for the response, you have some great ideas and have noted Walt’s post.
Just a quick one – if you don’t assess furlong or sectional fractions then how do you know how the first 2 or 3f furlongs generally compare at different courses etc and what is fast and slow? Is using rough figures better than using the naked eye?
Also, does anyone know if the ‘official’ times are always correct at all courses? Time is obviously very important and a friend has told me that he’s found some to be out of whack??
Cheers,
Sass
Just thinking that using figures is a good way to go, doesn’t have to be anything too specific or American literature style but gives a rough idea of what happened in terms of pace and who benefited and who didn’t etc.
What other factors do you think are important? If you were building a model and could only put so many ingredients in to the flat racing puzzle then what would you choose and why? For instance you wouldn’t stick trainer’s form at the course from last year in the mix but you would probably want to know about weight and days off etc……
Any thoughts welcome…..
Great first thread Sassoon.
Although I’m a Jumps man, I do get right into the flat as Royal Ascot comes along, but don’t have too much to add on what’s already been covered. As already mentioned, Nwaltons post, and “believe your eyes, not your ears” sums up how I feel perfectly. Never EVER sway from your own selections, and be careful of who you listen to.
Hi Sassoon,
Good questions, but to answer them would take all night…
As far as pace goes: I compare how all runners like to race. Those that like to front run (including if I think a horse needs to lead), race prominently, track pace, race mid-div, are held up or dropped out the back… Sometimes I’ll rate the horse as varying between the two, eg RP/TP (races prominently or tracks pace). And from that, work out if there’s a lot of pace horses and how the race is likely to be run – ie at an over fast, fast, average, fair or slow pace… Who the likely pace is going to suit and/or be against.
But always remember – Value Is Everything.
Value Is EverythingThe fractions at different courses isn’t something I look into overly, more the pace of the individual race rather than the pace of a 5F spring at York say for example.
When I say pace I mean more which horse will go off from the front etc, rather than the specific pace I expect the first 3F sectionals to be.
Most handicaps and such are well run, especially if there’s guaranteed front runners in the line-up.In terms of the pace being advantageous to some and bad for others, that’s when notes would come in.
I’d do them more per horse I think is interesting going forward rather than keeping notes of a full race, but like all of these things it’s what you feel works best for you.The jockey plays a big part for me when betting on big field handicaps, jockey always an important thing to look at but even more so in big field handicaps as it helps me assertsin which horses are there to win and which are there for a day out. When it comes to trainer form it pays dividends to get on a horse that you already like if if the trainer is in form – ginge taught me the importance of this a few years back – a lot of people see a trainers recent 5 runners coming 3rd, 5th, 4th, 6th and 3rd as pretty average to bad however if all these horses were big prices (say 20/1 or bigger) then it suggests they’re outperforming the expectations that the market had for them, in short pay strong attention to the prices of trainers recent runners when coming to a conclusion as to whether they’re in form or not. If a trainers had his last 5 runners all come 2nd or 3rd but all were evens shots then his next evens shot may not be as solid as first seems.
And a random point – I’ll always remember a trainer (think it was Gosden) saying something along the lines of “only good horses win at Sandown”, though this was a bit of an exaduration it certainly holds a good amount of weight as when there’s a close handicap or maiden or listed race then it often pays to side with the horse that has good recent form at Sandown even if it wasn’t a win. The track has a tight turn for home followed by a steep 4f uphill finish so you need to be a proper horse to see it out there – that is of course unless you’re racing against donkeys!
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