February 13, 2018 at 12:21 #1342012
Hi guys, firstly wondering whether you think it’s possible to profit from flat racing as a career and who on this forum does? Also which methods are we all using for studying form? And which factors do you believe are most important for profitability? I have had success with creating my own speed ratings and assessing the pace of races but haven’t paid much attention to weight, ability of jockey or trainer patterns etc so wondering how you approach those?
There’s a lot of question in there so apologies in advance but it’d be great to hear people chip in their tuppence worth as I know that there are many ways to skin a cat. Thanks a lot.February 13, 2018 at 12:43 #1342016
Hi Sasoon and welcome to TRF, hope you stick around.
I’ll move this post to the “Trends, Research, and Notebooks” part of the forum, but won’t do so, until I know you’ve seen this message.February 13, 2018 at 13:01 #1342018
That’s fine if that’s where it belongs, no problem and thanks. Also if you can throw in your views, whether it be flat or jumps, then that’d be great! Thanks a lot.February 13, 2018 at 13:23 #1342021
Finding the nature of the race, via pace & front runners is massive on the flat.
Draw can be also, in certain big sprints etc.
Horses can get blocked in also, which is a good angle 99% of the season if not overly obvious.
Otherwise I think the approach is the same as jumps with using form study, handicap marks, good and back jocks/trainers.
Time analysis is probably more accurate on the flat also as there’s generally less variables, but a lot of people are doing that these days and it rarely goes un-noticed if one clocks a very good time.February 13, 2018 at 13:39 #1342026
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Work hard (if you want to take your punting serious) never think you have this game cracked as it has a funny way of biting you on the backside(and wallet)
Take big note of the going, imo the number one factor in racing , if it don’t act, its a million to win.I only play in pattern races and big handicaps (class2 and above),watch plenty of racing and believe your eyes and not your ears.
GL its a hard and at times lonely old life if you are taking it seriously. Even now at my ripe old age I spend at least four five hours a day racing related. Remember one advantage we have over the old enemy is we don’t have to back in every race, so stay patient and disciplined.
Finally there are plenty of great posters and knowledgeable people on this forum, take a bit form each of them and you wont go to far wrong.February 13, 2018 at 13:52 #1342027
Good man Sasoon, I’ll definitely pop in later.February 13, 2018 at 14:11 #1342030
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Read the post from nwalton
Read it again……from those very few lines,everything you need to know.
An angle from a national hunt man…..many countries race left handed only,we don’t,take a little time out during the season,or looking back over previous results,very very little written on the subject.
GLFebruary 13, 2018 at 15:29 #1342038
Afternoon chaps, hope you’re having a good one!
Kev – what methods do you use to identify pace and front runners and which race distances do you find it easiest to judge? And does anyone use a numerical approach to this, like keeping track of a particular course for the first couple of furlongs where possible? Or trying to split the race up in to furlong segments etc?
Mr Walton, cheers for the advice!! Do you love the big handicaps for particular reasons like competitive e/w markets and more of a challenge etc? And do you opt for a higher grade of racing as the horses hold their form more and make it easier to judge? Also, how do you tend to break up the 5 hours you spend looking at racing and if you used to spend even more time how did you use that time?
Thanks a lot,
SassoonFebruary 13, 2018 at 15:38 #1342041
Also, whenever you other ladies and gents have time to post then please do so, apologies if I’m too inquisitive ;P
All the best,
SassoonFebruary 13, 2018 at 17:23 #1342068
Videos, videos and more videos normally. Watching back previous runs – there’s no sub for hard work. At The Races also do a ‘predicted race pattern’ with front runners etc. which helps also if struggling for a little bit of time or to see if they agree with you.
Draw bias can be hard to work out as it’s normally the pace angle that makes one side of the draw look like a bias when it actually isn’t but sometimes there is and that needs factored in.
I’d say it matters more in the sprints, 5 & 6 furlongs although saying that the mile handicaps are also affected a good bit by it.
I wouldn’t be one for trying to keep a strict numerical analysis of something like that, generally racing can’t be simplified as easily as that.
Nwalton’s post is brilliant and very relevant.February 13, 2018 at 17:40 #1342072
Thanks a lot for the response, you have some great ideas and have noted Walt’s post.
Just a quick one – if you don’t assess furlong or sectional fractions then how do you know how the first 2 or 3f furlongs generally compare at different courses etc and what is fast and slow? Is using rough figures better than using the naked eye?
Also, does anyone know if the ‘official’ times are always correct at all courses? Time is obviously very important and a friend has told me that he’s found some to be out of whack??
SassFebruary 13, 2018 at 22:00 #1342097
Just thinking that using figures is a good way to go, doesn’t have to be anything too specific or American literature style but gives a rough idea of what happened in terms of pace and who benefited and who didn’t etc.
What other factors do you think are important? If you were building a model and could only put so many ingredients in to the flat racing puzzle then what would you choose and why? For instance you wouldn’t stick trainer’s form at the course from last year in the mix but you would probably want to know about weight and days off etc……
Any thoughts welcome…..February 13, 2018 at 23:28 #1342113
Great first thread Sassoon.
Although I’m a Jumps man, I do get right into the flat as Royal Ascot comes along, but don’t have too much to add on what’s already been covered. As already mentioned, Nwaltons post, and “believe your eyes, not your ears” sums up how I feel perfectly. Never EVER sway from your own selections, and be careful of who you listen to.February 14, 2018 at 00:26 #1342117
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Good questions, but to answer them would take all night…
As far as pace goes: I compare how all runners like to race. Those that like to front run (including if I think a horse needs to lead), race prominently, track pace, race mid-div, are held up or dropped out the back… Sometimes I’ll rate the horse as varying between the two, eg RP/TP (races prominently or tracks pace). And from that, work out if there’s a lot of pace horses and how the race is likely to be run – ie at an over fast, fast, average, fair or slow pace… Who the likely pace is going to suit and/or be against.
But always remember – Value Is Everything.value is everythingFebruary 14, 2018 at 00:33 #1342119
The fractions at different courses isn’t something I look into overly, more the pace of the individual race rather than the pace of a 5F spring at York say for example.
When I say pace I mean more which horse will go off from the front etc, rather than the specific pace I expect the first 3F sectionals to be.
Most handicaps and such are well run, especially if there’s guaranteed front runners in the line-up.
In terms of the pace being advantageous to some and bad for others, that’s when notes would come in.
I’d do them more per horse I think is interesting going forward rather than keeping notes of a full race, but like all of these things it’s what you feel works best for you.
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