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sorry for late reply Sassoon. I love the big handicaps as normally you get the price you were looking for (esp with the pushes, if you can get on), and you can normally find the odd on that time and again turn up for same race and run their race. Love the ascot h’caps as I am a big believer that horses there really do show their form time and time again, once they show a liking for ascot.(can apply to most tracks but feel ascot/Donny since the relay really is for course specialists)
You are correct why I play in the better races, I do feel they tend to run far more consistently than those at the gaffs(many on here do really well at the gaffs, but its not for me)
My day is broke up be getting up around six(always been early bird) just going through the news items then watching replay after replay. Then getting stuck into the races ahead(normally work about five days in advance, once decs are out) I normally have a rough idea of what horse I will back and what price I would want, obviously keeping an eye on the weather. Then its really getting settled down to watch ruk/atr or running around shops to get the bets on. So as you see in all fairness its quite a dull life,but with working only on high grade racing(flat only) I can get time off for my other passion(watching/attending and punting) on boxing.
I don’t make fortunes and probably cold have made more staying in the stone mason trade, but I love the game of trying to beat the enemy
There I am prattling on again, but like I said and others its really hard work and you never have this game sussed. Good luck mateI don’t make fortunes and probably cold have made more staying in the stone mason trade, but I love the game of trying to beat the enemy
Agreed, nwalton; had I stayed in the carpet fitting trade would’ve made more too.
Trouble is only one or two of “the enemy” want to go in to battle with a known winner.
Value Is Everythinghave to walk many miles to get bets on now GT, sometimes even get on train and do the London shops,I am not talking thousands (probably want to get that amount on a horse/fighter 5/6 times a year)
Cant get a tanner on online apart from betfair exchange
Can really get frustrating but I plod (being the operative word) on
Alright chaps,
Hope you’re having a good one! Great posts so thanks for the info. Ben, how important do you think jockeys are overall? And assume you’re referring to trainers putting up the better jockeys on their better horses for the big handicaps? Always find it ironic when the lesser jockey wins on the lesser fancied horse!
nwlaton – cheers for the post, very informative. Your day sounds fun to me and something I aspire to do in future when the game is paying more and I have more saved from work. When you watch your replays do you tend to use Sporting Life and make a lot of notes etc?
Ginge and nwalt, if you don’t mind me asking – how much were you making in your respective trades and how does that roughly compare to your year to year ‘salary’ now. Taking on and beating the bookies is definitely the aim and something we can do for definite when selective ;)
All the best and get back to me when you can,
Sass
my son laughs at the notes I make, but when I started out FT in 1991 computers were things on james bond movies.
I use all the sites mate and also keep a lot on the sky+ .
I bet to points at £100 per point and hope to make a minimum 100 points per flat season, one top of that I have the bets that don’t go on the points system as they go off the 10pt max system.
My average bet is probably around 3/4pts (£400) so as you I am not a massive punter, but I do have the occasional what I consider large bet 5/6 times a year as stated in last post
nwalton, are the notes hilarious? Like ‘x ran up z’s arse’?? hahaha
Which sites do you find best for replays mate? I’m only using Sporting Life at the minute but would love to expand my armory!
Do you tend to hit your 100 point target walt and what’s the most you’ve been over it and under it for the flat season?
Cheers,Sassoon
bet365 replays are okay too Sassoon as they do both RUK and ATR
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
lol Sassoon, no just normal stuff as if I think horse needed further/shorter, if the pace of the race was ok and where I would probably aim the horse next(not that I get that right to often)
I tend to hit the 100,but like I say the bonus’s are the 5/6 big bets
Cheers Nath! How do you access the replays? I know that you can watch the races live if you’ve staked a small amount as a minimum but didn’t know you could watch past ones!
Thanks,
Sass
click on live streaming which is top right under username
then hover not click on results & archive
then click on horse racing archive
you can type in a horses name or specific date on that tooGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
How many points would you go for on the 5/6 big bets and what makes you come to that decision? Guess if you really fancy something and feel it can’t get beaten?
Have you ever assessed all factors and felt that a horse was nailed on to win? And if so how did the beast in question get on? I’m finding some really good angles working with pace at the minute and sometimes things are jumping out from past races; but we all know that hindsight is a great thing. As usual, it’s a case of ruling horses out to start with and having 3 or 4 in mind that you think might fight it out
Ginge and nwalt, if you don’t mind me asking – how much were you making in your respective trades and how does that roughly compare to your year to year ‘salary’ now.
Not going to say how much I was making carpet fitting or now investing in horses, Sassoon. Some years I make quite a bit more on the horses, some years considerably less. One year my “salary” was in the minus column! Although some carpet fitting years weren’t much better either – in the 90’s housing reccession my wages went down to a small fraction of what they were before or after. But generally I’d say on average am making around two thirds of what I would’ve made in my old profession. Would’ve had to give up completely if I had kids or not bought the house (before going “pro”) without a mortgage. Ex-pro’ Dave Nevison wrote in his book something like, “there are some professional gamblers making a millionaire’s wage and there are some on a lavatory cleaner’s wage”.
It’s not as glamorous as people think and there are negatives. Difficult to get credit, some car insurance companies don’t want to know you and for those that do it’s more expensive… and absolutely impossible to get a mortgage.
Value Is EverythingHow many points would you go for on the 5/6 big bets and what makes you come to that decision? Guess if you really fancy something and feel it can’t get beaten?
Have you ever assessed all factors and felt that a horse was nailed on to win? And if so how did the beast in question get on? I’m finding some really good angles working with pace at the minute and sometimes things are jumping out from past races; but we all know that hindsight is a great thing. As usual, it’s a case of ruling horses out to start with and having 3 or 4 in mind that you think might fight it out
My own personal staking plan is:
My idea of the horse’s chance in percentage terms…
Minus the available odds in percentage terms…
Times by 7 (or 6 if it’s a harder race to assess or slightly doubtful to take part ante-post)
Plus My idea of the horse’s chance in percentage terms…So if I believe a horse has a 20% chance of winning (20% = a fair 4/1) and is available @ 6/1 (14.3%)…
20 – 14.3 = 5.7
5.7 X 7 = 39.9
39.9 + 20 = 59.9
So my stake is 60 points @ 6/1If the available price were only 5/1… 20 – 16.7 = 3.3, X 7 = 23.1 + 20 = 43.1. So Stake is 43 points @ 5/1.
If the available price is 7/1 the stake works out @ 73 points @ 7/1.
If 8/1 it’s 82 points.
If 9/1 90 points.This way my staking depends both on how much chance I believe the horse has of winning and also how much value I believe is in the bet.
What each point is worth depends how much I have in the bank.Personally have never thought a horse “nailed on”, although I don’t play at long odds-on anyway. Seldom rating a horse’s odds more than 10 percentage points better in my 100% book than the available odds.
If you’re only good at finding the value at the short end of the market, then fair enough only back those at that end. But be careful ruling horses out, because the value at the shorter end of the market also depends on the amount of chance the bigger priced horses have and whether backing them or not need to be worked out. Personally, I don’t “rule out” any horse. Punters need to win just 1 out of 101 of their 100/1 bets to break even and need 50 of 100 Even Money bets to break even. So I’ll be backing a 100/1 shot that I think has just a 2% chance of winning and not backing an Even Money shot that I think has a 47% chance or a 1/2 shot I believe has a 65% chance. ie Even though a horse has a far greater chance of winning does not mean it is the best bet. Even in my opinion it’s highly unlikely the horse I believe has just a 2% chance will be “fighting it out”, but that doesn’t matter – it only needs to be over-priced to be worth a bet.
Value Is EverythingGinge,
You have a good staking plan imo and it obviously works for you. Value is obviously a really important aspect of successful punting and the likes of Veitch, Nevison and every other man and his dog has written about it. The thing that gets me with it is where is the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value, we’re only human and although value can slap you in the face like a wet fish who are we to be pinpoint accurate in our estimations of a horses’s chance when we don’t have all the facts? Being out a few points here and there can make a huge difference in the long run imo! What Benter and Woods were doing out in HK is interesting, basically taking into consideration every single factor that they thought of interest and throwing it into a computer to let it spit out numbers and percentage chances. Bit of a ramble now so gunna have a cup of tea hahahaha!
Ginge, can I ask what your ROI is or whatever stats you know regarding your betting? And you too nwalt?
Although Dave Nevison definitely has a sharp brain I certainly think it helped him starting with 50k and having a big set of balls with regards to his staking! Some people hanging about on this forum might’ve been millionaires by now if they had a fat stake like that to begin with
Cheers
Sass
Alright chaps,
What I think I was getting at was that value is important and the tissue that goes with it but if you can’t pick medium and longshot winners then it doesn’t amount to anything. Just because a tissue has been created and we have our own prices it doesn’t mean that they’re always accurate, due to many factors, and we may not be getting the value we think we’re getting.
Anyhuuuuu, does anyone else have good staking ideas similar to gingers? Do you use Kelly or perhaps something a lot braver?
Thanks in advance
Sassoon
If you’re not good at working out what’s value then you won’t win money, if you are then you will (long term with large sample size), this means if you want to make the game pay then you have to trust your gut and gamble on yourself, not just the horses, gamble on yourself being right, gamble on your intuition and ability to read a race.
I also find that some of the time people are better at betting on certain types of races than others so it may be no harm at all if you can’t pick out a big priced winner if you just so happen to be good at picking out evens shot winners – and visa versa
Oh and your question regarding the importance of jockey – I don’t pay too much attention to it in lower grade handicaps (aw or turf) because at most only half the field are trying so the horse that wins has usually been ‘plotted’ to some extent, also trainers often like to put a random/not top class jockey on their horse if they’re expecting a big run in these races because booking a ‘better’ jockey can cause the bookies to be wary and not offer a decent price on the horse. I pay a relative amount of attention to jockey booking in listed/group races because you need one who can judge pace correctly and know when to strike to the front, however the best horse (or one most suited to that days conditions) often wins these races so jockey isn’t the be all and end all, if I like a horse in a listed/group race then as long as it’s got a half decent jockey on board I’ll back it.
I pay most attention to jockey booking in big field handicaps (and very rarely will I back a horse in one with just an average jockey) because you need one who will anticipate where/when the gaps will appear – it is also a big indicator that the trainer is expecting a big run from the horse, especially if it has had average jockeys on board for previous runs.Ginge,
You have a good staking plan imo and it obviously works for you. Value is obviously a really important aspect of successful punting and the likes of Veitch, Nevison and every other man and his dog has written about it. The thing that gets me with it is where is the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value, we’re only human and although value can slap you in the face like a wet fish who are we to be pinpoint accurate in our estimations of a horses’s chance when we don’t have all the facts? Being out a few points here and there can make a huge difference in the long run imo! What Benter and Woods were doing out in HK is interesting, basically taking into consideration every single factor that they thought of interest and throwing it into a computer to let it spit out numbers and percentage chances. Bit of a ramble now so gunna have a cup of tea hahahaha!
Ginge, can I ask what your ROI is or whatever stats you know regarding your betting? And you too nwalt?
Although Dave Nevison definitely has a sharp brain I certainly think it helped him starting with 50k and having a big set of balls with regards to his staking! Some people hanging about on this forum might’ve been millionaires by now if they had a fat stake like that to begin with
Cheers
Sass
Alright chaps,
What I think I was getting at was that value is important and the tissue that goes with it but if you can’t pick medium and longshot winners then it doesn’t amount to anything. Just because a tissue has been created and we have our own prices it doesn’t mean that they’re always accurate, due to many factors, and we may not be getting the value we think we’re getting.
Thanks in advance
Sassoon
Sass,
You ask “where is the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value, we’re only human and although value can slap you in the face like a wet fish who are we to be pinpoint accurate in our estimations of a horses’s chance when we don’t have all the facts”?Long term the “balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value” is inbuilt.
eg
If a punter has a strike rate of 7% and his average winner is 25/1, then 7% is a bloody “good percentage of winners”.
Just as 20% would be a good percentage of winners if a punter’s average priced winner is 6/1; or 50% at an average price of 6/4 etc (short priced horses can be “value” too).It could be said that if a punter does not make a long term profit then he/she has not achieved value, but that is a little too simplistic. A punter knows he has got long term value only if his/her average priced winner (every winning price converted in to a percentage and then all added up before dividing by the number of winners)… is a bigger figure than his/her strike rate.
We don’t need “all the facts” to produce a good enough book, making a book is about probabilities – not facts. We don’t need to be “pinpoint accurate”. What all the horses chances are is only opinion. Long term – any individual punter’s opinions/assessments only need to be more accurate than bookmakers odds-compilers and/or those punters on exchanges.
imo Computers can not judge value accurately, because value is always subjective. One aspect of form could make up a massive part of one horse’s chance and yet be far less important in another’s. eg Temperament can make up a massive part of a “dog”‘s chance, where as for another runner temperament has very little say in its chance. etc.
Value Is Everything
Cheers,
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