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Newb 3.15
Hand Inn Hand            178(+15)<br>It Takes Time              177<br>First Gold                 176<br>Supreme Prince            176 won 7/1<br>Chauvinist                176 3rd 11/2<br>Whereareyounow           176
Hand Inn Hand  10pts ew@8/1, generally available<br> unpl 8/1 -20pts<br>It Takes Time  10pts ew@9/1, gen av.<br> unpl 11/1 -20pts
Newb 1.35 Figaro Du Rocher 145(+18) 20pts win @5/2+<br> unpl 13/8 (tchd 15/8, price ok, NRs -20pts<br>Newb 2.45 Parson’s Legacy 147(+13) 10pts ew@7/1+<br> unpl 9/2 tchd 6/1, price ok, NRs -20pts<br>Hunt  3.05 Chief Tartare 134(+16) 20pts win @5/4+<br> 2nd 4/7, never better than 8/13 No Bet<br>     4.15 Brown Teddy 144(+16) 20pts win@ 6/4+<br> 2nd 6/4 -20pts
A loss of 100pts on the day – a poor week so far, and only tomorrow left.<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 7:02 pm on Mar. 5, 2005)
Two bets at Market Rasen:
MRas 2.15  Jair Ohmsford 136(+13)  20pts @5/4+<br> won 11/8 +27pts<br>     3.50  Game On 137(+18) 30pts win@ 3/1+<br> unpl 5/2, 2NRs -30pts
a 3pts loss on the day
Weekly Total
Stakes 360pts loss 213pts
Running Total (2weeks)
Stakes 760pts profit 91pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:43 pm on Mar. 6, 2005)
Wolv 3.50 Gallery Breeze 96(+11) 20pts win@7/2+<br> 2nd 5/22nd 5/2(tchd 7/2) 1NR 14/1 -20pts<br>Ling  2.30 Resplendent Nova 101(+15) 10pts ew@5/1+<br> won 4/1(tchd 9/2) No NRs NO BET<br> <br>     3.30 Barton Sands 100(+11) 20pts win@5/1+<br>3rd 7/2 NRs 8/1,10/1 NO BET<br>         Rolex Free 99 10pts ew@10/1+ NR
    4.00 Fiddlers Creek 111(+17) 20pts ew@6/1+<br>Unpl 13/2(op 9/1) -40pts<br>     4.30 Anfield Dream 107(+13) 20pts win@4/1+<br>won 5/2 (tchd 11/4) 1NR 8/1 NO BET
A loss of 60pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 8:47 am on Mar. 8, 2005)
Managed to find a few winners yesterday, but the prices have to be right. That’s the discipline required to make it pay in the long run.
Only one possible today:
Sout 3.10 Kylkenny 111(+18) is one point ahead of Shape up(110), so has to be the value choice at 7/2+.<br>I think those odds will be available. 30pts win.
2nd 5/1         -30pts
(Edited by Artemis at 4:08 pm on Mar. 8, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 4:08 pm on Mar. 8, 2005)
Only one recommended bet today:
Font 2.20 Mister Mustard 132(+14) 10pts win@3/1+<br>won 7/4(op3/1 tchd 10/3) +30pts
Change To Speed Points
With the flat coming along soon and also the return of better ground over the jumps, we are going to see a lot of horses that haven’t run for about 5 or 6 months. At present these horses are unable to score any speed points because they are only awarded for speed ratings achieved in the last 60 days.
To compensate horses returning after a break, I’m adding 2 points to the ratings for any horse that has achieved a Topspeed rating equal to, or higher than the Speed Base figure during the last twelve months or so.<br>In the RP, this figure appears in the Topspeed Best Rating column of the Postdata section. Horses that are awarded speed points for recent races(last 60 days) do not qualify for these extra points. This change will be effective from tomorrow and will be applied to jump racing and turf flat racing, but not AW racing.
I normallyl revert back to the original speed points at the end of May when there is sufficient recent form to discard the older speed figures.
There is also a problem with horses that have been running on dirt/sand transfering back to turf. At present, most speed ratings compilers(including Topspeed) are reluctant to apply ratings achieved on dirt to races on turf. This seems fair enough. It would involve quite a bit of extra work to compile my own adjusted ratings, so unless Dave Edwards(Topspeed) has a change of heart, I cannot take AW ratings into account when rating turf races.   <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:19 pm on Mar. 9, 2005)
<br>3 possible bets today:
Winc  2.20 Indien Royal 141(+17) 20ptswin@7/4+<br> won 9/4(op 2/1 tchd 5/2) +40pts<br>      2.55 Blue Leader 138(+16) 10pts ew@7/1+<br> unpl 13/2(op 8/1) -20pts<br>Towc  3.40 Rakassa 132(+15) 20pts win@5/2+<br> won 5/2(op 2/1) +50pts
70pts profit on the day.
(Edited by Artemis at 9:18 am on Mar. 11, 2005)
Two possible bets:
Sand 2.40 Osiris 132(+15) 20pts@6/4+<br>  unpl 15/8      -20pts<br>Ayr   4.40 King’s Envoy 121(+15) 20pts@5/2+, could be a market drifter.<br>  unpl  7/1(op 11/2   -20pts
40pts down on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 6:13 pm on Mar. 11, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:15 pm on Mar. 11, 2005)
Sandown 3.25
Kalca Mome        161(+17)unpl<br>Monte Cinto        1593rd 14/1<br>Crossbow Creek    1574th 10/1
Kalca Mome 10pts ew@14/1 -20pts
Monte Cinto 10pts ew@16/1 +30pts
Sand 5.00 Chef Tartare 143(+16)  20pts win @7/4+<br>unpl 13/8(op 7/4) -20pts<br>Wolv 3.45 Night Air 130(+16) 30pts win@10/3+<br>won 11/4 op 3/1,7/2 this morning +105pts<br>     4.20 Don Pasquale 103(+21) 10pts win @ 5/2+<br>3rd 15/8, op 9/4 NO BET<br>Ayr  3.40 Jolika 130(+22) 30pts @9/4+<br>-I’ve taken 11/4 this morning, sure to be shorter.<br>unpl 7/2, op3/1 tchd 9/2 -30pts<br>I got that price wrong.
A profit of 65pts on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 7:07 pm on Mar. 12, 2005)
<br>Warw 2.30 Woodlands Genpower 132(+15) 20pts @6/4+ 2nd 5/6 2NRs 1/1, 100/1, price acceptable -20pts
     3.00 Change Agent 140(+30) 50pts@ 5/4+<br>This rating(+30) is the highest (+) figure I have produced from the ratings this jumps season, so it is a maximum bet, the first for some time.<br>won 5/4 (tchd 6/4) +63pts
43pts profit on the day
Weekly Total
Stakes 360pts Profit 108pts
Running Total (3 weeks)
Stakes 1120pts Profit 199pts
(Edited by Artemis at 6:18 pm on Mar. 13, 2005)
Artemis,
Nice Max!
I too had worked out Chanagent was a good bet, your endorsement gave me extra confidence.
Thanks
Yes Ollie, it’s very rare that the (+) figure gets that high. I was a bit worried I wouldn’t get the 5/4- thought the price might collapse, but these are chases and anything can happen.
Only one possible today:
Plum 2.30 Myson 125(+13) 20pts@2/1+<br>won 13/8(op 7/4), no NRs NO BET
(Edited by Artemis at 9:16 am on Mar. 15, 2005)
Ratings for Cheltenham and recommended bets.<br>(within 3points of top-rated)
2.00 Marcel  163(+15) 20pts@7/1, generally available<br> unpl 13/2 -20pts<br>2.35 My Will  176(+22) 20pts ew@ 14/1, gen av<br> unpl 12/1 -40pts<br>     Contraband 174 No bet won 7/1<br> <br>3.15 Hardy Eustace 183(+16) No Bet won 7/2<br>     Back In Front  182 No Bet unpl 7/2<br>     Rooster Booster 182 10pts ew@14/1 gen av.<br> unpl 16/1 -20pts
4.00 Iris Bleu 179(+15) No Bet unpl11/2<br>     Whereareyounow 178 10pts ew@14/1 unpl 20/1 -20pts<br>     Native Emperor 178 No Bet unpl 25/1<br>     Spring Grove 177 No Bet unpl 25/1
4.40 Spotthedifference 163(+13) won 4/1<br>     Village King 161 unpl 9/1<br>     No bets
5.20 Daryal 139(+17) 20pts win @8/1+   <br> unpl 13/2 tchd 7/1 NO BET
A loss of 100pts on the day  <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:58 am on Mar. 16, 2005)
Cheltenham Day 2
2.00 No Refuge 160(+15) 10pts ew@10/1, generally available. won 17/2, took morning odds +120pts
2.35 Comply Or Die 175(+17) No Bet<br>2nd 3/1f
3.15 Moscow Flyer 198(+20) won 6/4f<br>     Azertyuiop    197 3rd 2/1<br>     Well Chief    196 2nd 7/2<br>No Bet
4.00 Distant Prospect    157(+12)unpl 10/3f<br>     Omni Cosmo Touch  157 unpl 25/1<br>     Lough Derg        156 unpl 40/1<br>     Unleash           156 NR<br>     Jack Dawson        156 pulled up 20/1<br>     Dancing Bay        156 2nd 14/1
No Bet
4.40 Indalo 157(+17) 10pts ew@10/1, generally available.<br> unpl 10/1 -20pts
5.20 The Mick Weston 153(+11) unseated rider 12/1<br>     Refinement      153 unpl 6/1
No Bet   ÂÂÂ
A profit on the day of 100pts
(Edited by Artemis at 9:25 am on Mar. 17, 2005)
Cheltenham Day 3
2.00 Lacdoudal 169(+17) 10pts ew@14/1 generally<br> 2nd 12/1, took 14/1 +25pts<br>2.35 Edredon Bleu       182(+13) pulled up, 33/1<br>     Thisthatandtother   182 won 9/2<br>     Fondmort          182 2nd 9/1<br>     Our Vic            181 pulled up 7/4f<br>     Rathgar Beau       180 3rd 9/2
No Bet
3.15 Baracouda 190(+17) 20pts@6/4+ 2nd 6/5 f tchd 6/4 -20pts
4.00 Brooklyn Breeze 171(+18) 20pts ew@7/1, <br>generally 4th 9/2, took 7/1 +15pts    ÂÂÂ
4.40 Control Man 151(+11)<br>No Bet
5.20 Ravenswood     159(+12)<br>     The Dark Lord     158<br>     The Bajan Bandit  157<br>     Petite Margot     157<br>     Broken Knights    157
No Bet
20 pts up on the day
(Edited by Artemis at 9:38 am on Mar. 17, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 9:44 am on Mar. 18, 2005)
Cheltenham Day 4
Horses rated within 3 points of top-rated:
2.00  Cerium 163(+20) 20pts ew@8/1 generally<br>4th 8/1, most firms paid 4th +20pts<br>2.35  Brewster       165(+15) 3rd 9/4f<br>     Over The Creek  164 2nd 5/1
No Bet
3.15  Kicking King     189(+15) won 4/1f<br>     Grey Abbey      188  10pts ew@8/1 generally<br> unpl 15/2 -20pts<br>     Celestial gold    187 unpl 9/2
4.00  Earthmover      155(+12) unpl 7/1<br>     Sleeping Night   154 won 7/2 fav
No Bet
4.40  L’Ange Au Ciel   181 (+18) unpl 9/2f<br>     Impek          180  10pts ew@ 16/1 generally<br> unpl 12/1 -20pts<br>     Great Travel     180  fell 12/1
5.20  Tamarinbleu     169(+13) 10pts ew@ 9/1 generally unpl 9/1 -20pts<br>     Monte Cinto     167 unpl 8/1
Also, at Lingfield:
3.40  Island Rapture 110(+16) 20pts ew@5/1+<br>2nd 9/2 op 5/1 level<br>5.00  Cold Turkey 119(+15) 30pts win@9/4+<br>unpl 1/1 op 11/8 NO BET<br>5.40  Smokin Joe 107(+16) 10pts ew@6/1+<br>unpl 3/1 tchd 7/2 1NR@7/1 NO BET
A loss of 40pts on the day<br>(Edited by Artemis at 12:13 pm on Mar. 18, 2005)<br>
(Edited by Artemis at 6:26 pm on Mar. 18, 2005)
A meeting like Cheltenham is a fairly good test of any kind of ratings method. It features the best horses ridden by the best riders with plenty of form, speed ratings, and course specialists(horses, jockeys and trainers).
I rated all 24 races, managing to find 6 winners amongst the top-rated, all of which were quite well -fancied. I also managed 7 places. A 1pt level stake on the 28 top-rated(2 races had a joint top-rated and one had three co- top-rated) would have yielded a profit of 4 pts (about 14 per cent).
My ratings are derived mainly from Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed, so I looked at how they performed over the festival.
RPR had 5 winners for a profit of 2pts and Topspeed had 4 winners for a 1pt profit.
I hope Dave Edwards(Topspeed) had a placepot on his selections on Thursday because all six were placed for a dividend of £2,486.80 for £1. Unfortunately, I only managed 5 out of 6.
The turf racing is almost upon us, so it will be interesting to see how the Racing Post derived ratings will perform this season.
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