Produce Your Own Ratings from RP

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Weth  1.30 Kelly 134(+17) 10pts ew  unpl<br>           2.05 Well Chief 199(+19) 30pts win  unpl<br>Exet    2.10 Control Man 154(+13) 20pts win  won 5/4<br>           2.45 Borehill Joker 131(+15) 10pts ew  2nd 13/2<br>           3.20 Do L’Enfant D’Eau 129(+15) 10pts win  won 7/4<br>Sout    3.30 Paso Doble 102(+16) 30pts win   unpl

There was an additional qualifier which was somehow omitted from the original post:

Folk  12.50 Too Forward  146(+18) 30pts win won 6/4

Stakes   160pts      profit  14pts

(Edited by Artemis at 6:38 pm on Jan. 3, 2005)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Ayr  1.40 Basilea Star 132(+17) 20pts win  NR<br>       3.10 Crazy Horse 142(+20) 30pts win  NR<br>Ling 12.50 Quantum Leap 99(+15) 20pts ew  3rd 8/1<br>        1.50 Union Jack Jackson 104(+11) 20pts win unpl

Stakes 60pts   Level    

(Edited by Artemis at 8:50 am on Jan. 5, 2005)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Here   1.00 Wrags To Riches 135(+13) 10pts ew  2nd 8/1<br>Sout   2.40 Orpendonna 105(+22) 10pts win 2nd<br>Ling    2.20 Paparaazi 109(+18) 30pts win  unpl<br>          3.20 Stoic Leader 111(+16) 20pts ew  unpl<br>          3.50 Bienheureux 100(+14) 20pts win    3rd  

<br>Stakes 120pts    loss 94pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:38 am on Jan. 6, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only two qualifiers today:

Wolv   3.40 York Cliff 99(+15) 20pts ew  2nd 7/1<br>Winc   2.30 Quiet Water 145(+19) 30pts win  unseated rider

Stakes  70pts    loss 22pts

(Edited by Artemis at 9:01 am on Jan. 7, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only two qualifiers today at short odds:

Towc  2.50 Woodlands Genpower 136(+13) 20pts win won 1/3<br>Wolv  2.30 Moayed 133(+15) 30pts win  won 5/2

Stakes  50pts    profit   82pts

Some decent racing at Wolverhampton, provided the gales don’t prevent it taking place. My ratings for the meeting, for interest, are:

1.30 Zeloso 46(+12).

2.00 Belisco 82(+5), Ziet D’Alsace 81(+4)

2.30 Moayed 133(+15).qualifier

3.00 Summer Serenade 85(+12).

3.30 Quiet Times 118(+13), Quito 116(+11).qualifying race, but no clear qualifier(at least 3 points clear)

4.00 Rafferty 113(+13), Atlantic Quest 111(+11), Roman Maze 111(+11).same as previous race

4.30 Russian Symphony 109(+15), Up Tempo 109(+15).ditto

5.00 Sungio 51(+19).

(Edited by Artemis at 5:17 pm on Jan. 7, 2005)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Sand 1.30 Almah 139(+13) 20pts win  unpl<br>         2.05 Oneway 165(+17) 20pts win  won 9/4<br>         2.35 Marcel 161(+16) 20pts win  won 3/1<br>         3.10 Monte Cinto 167(+20) 30pts win  unpl

Stakes  90pts      profit 55pts

Weekly Total

Stakes 550pts    profit35pts

Running Total(since Sep 23rd)

Stakes 8,487pts    loss 60pts (-0.7%)

(Edited by Artemis at 6:37 pm on Jan. 8, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 8:27 am on Jan. 10, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only one qualifier today(and that horse only goes if the going is suitable):

Taun 1.20 Waterspray 131(+15) 20pts win won 11/4<br>Stakes 20pts    profit 55pts

<br>As I pointed out at the beginning of the thread, long-term profits of more than around 10% are very difficult to sustain in ANY form of betting. I think it is possible to achieve, but you would need to employ a range of strategies to do it. Most contributors to the systems forum show their results to SP and it is to their credit that many of them are showing a profit, especially those that have been going for any length of time. I am fairly sure that the SP returns can be bettered by taking early prices with bookmakers and on exchanges.

The method I use is a simplified version of more complex models used by individuals and syndicates, and these models tend to come up with the same selection. Not always, because the form variables used are assigned different weights and not all possible variables are used in some models. The end result, from my observations of the market, is that certain horses are backed down fairly close to the off, provided they haven’t drifted out too much from the early shows, OR, there is not significant and sustained support for a strong market rival in the early betting. At the moment, I am trying to play this by intuition, but I’m sure there are people just feeding the prices in automatically and letting their computer programs make the decisions. The effect on my profit and loss account, and maybe yours too, is that we are getting shorter SPs for our carefully chosen selections than their chances merit. The effect need only be very small (10/11 instead of evens, for example) in order to wipe out profits.

In view of this, I’m working on a way of re- introducing pricing into my methods to try and improve profitability. I’ve mentioned before that this isn’t easy as a pen and paper exercise because of the amount of data/time needed to do it properly, so I’m still going to have to rely on my nose quite a bit.<br> <br>Like any sensible punter, I always have some price in mind before having a bet and won’t play unless I’m happy with the odds on offer. I’ll continue to monitor the qualifiers at SP, because SP is always readily available to a decent amount, but I might add comments about available odds and how the market moved on qualifying horses.   <br>

(Edited by Artemis at 8:43 am on Jan. 11, 2005)

[LookingForAWinner]

Artemis,

I suppose there are two ways to proceed from this point:<br>1. Only back those selections you consider value<br>2. Review your weightings, and/or consider other factors that the market is currently ignorant of.

[Artemis]

LFW,<br>Thanks for your comments.

I’m reasonably happy with the ratings and method of selecting qualifiers – just about breaking level at SP at the moment, although the long term target is about 5% profit. I’m sure there is always room for improvement, but I’m trying to keep things simple and manageable using only pen, paper and the RP. I think the market is now very sophisticated and anyone wishing to bet against the crowd will have to come up with an original idea, which if successful will be kept under their hats. I haven’t had any flashes of inspiration for a while, but my brain is working on it quietly and subconsciously and I have not given up just yet.

I only ever back horses which I believe to be ‘value’ bets, with the exception of a few placepots and the Scoop6. Even these accumulative bets can be considered value under certain conditions, but you have to be a big player to take advantage. Perhaps I give the impression that I back all the qualifiers, but I don’t. Some of them are too short for my liking but I still monitor them to see if the ratings method can produce a profit at SP.

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Sedg 2.40 Devil’s Run 121(+15) 20pts win <br>2/1 should be available: a fair price. won 7/2<br>Leic   1.30 Beamish Prince 133(+17) 20pts win  <br>around 7/2, potential drifter but solid chance.  unpl – 4th, 11/4<br>         2.00 Limerick Bay 147(+18) 10pts win <br>odds on, I’d take 4/5.  won 4/7<br>         3.00 Eric’s Charm 143(+15) 20pts win <br>odds on but evens would tempt(unlikely). 2nd 8/13<br>         4.00 The Local 136(+14) 20pts win<br>Typical last race good thing, will be priced up very short by layers, looks poor value for those trying to ‘get-out’.<br>Might be worth looking for 5/4 this morning. won 1/1

Stakes 90pts    profit 56pts<br><br>

(Edited by Artemis at 9:21 am on Jan. 12, 2005)

[Artemis]

There are a few strong qualifiers today, hence the increased stakes.

Wolv  1.30 Queen Of Night 104(+18) 30pts win<br>Around 3/1 this morning but will be shorter.  unpl 4/1, wrong about price<br>         4.45 Fisby 105(+20) 20pts ew<br>About 5/1 SP, I think.  4th   unpl, 11/4, price collapsed<br>Newb 1.20 See You Sometime 157(+23) 40pts win  <br>Easy to back around 7/4 in this type of race.  2nd 2/1<br>          1.50 Pole Star 142(+18)  30pts win  <br>definite odds on, the only bet for the ‘money-buyers today.  won easily 1/2<br>          2.25 Ulusaba 148(+19) 30pts win<br>5/2 or better looks fair.  3rd 3/1

Stakes 170pts    loss 125pts

(Edited by Artemis at 4:59 pm on Jan. 12, 2005)

[Artemis]

Only one qualifier today:

Catt 3.20 Edmo Yewkay 139(+18) 10pts win  3rd 3/1

Stakes  10pts   loss 10pts

There is a decent handicap at Lingfield (3.00), but It didn’t produce a clear choice (3 or more points clear).<br>Here are my ratings for the race, for interest and comparison with anyone else’s:

Cold Turkey            114(+14)  won 7/1<br>Dovedon Hero        112(+12)  3rd 20/1<br>Rome                      112(+12) last<br>Nawow                   111<br>Classic Role             110<br>Modaffaa                 109<br>Winners Delight       109<br>Maystock                 108<br>Blaze Of Colour        108 <br>Sun Hill                     107<br>True Companion      105<br>Northside Lodge      104<br>Salute                      101<br>King Of Diamonds      99 <br>

(Edited by Artemis at 5:53 pm on Jan. 13, 2005)

[Artemis]

The racing today is surprisingly poor for a Friday, lacking in quality. There may be some very competitive low grade racing, but recent results should sound a note of caution when betting in that class of race>

Today’s qualifiers are all short-priced favourites and I would be very surprised if any start bigger than 5/4.

Hunt  2.00  Baby Run 145(+15) 20pts win  NR<br>         2.30 Roofing Spirit 127(+14) 20pts win  11/10, unplaced<br>         3.30 Noble Baron 132(+16) 20pts win 5/4, 2nd<br>Kels  3.10 Oracle Des Mottes 30pts win  10/11, 2nd

Stakes  70pts     loss 70pts

(Edited by Artemis at 6:48 pm on Jan. 14, 2005)

[Artemis]

Today’s qualifiers:

Kemp 2.20 Made In Japan 163(+19) 30pts win  4/7, unplaced<br>         2.50 Lacdoudal 157(+15) 20pts win  won 11/4

<br>Warw 1.30 Control Man 158(+160 20pts win   1/1  2nd<br>          2.35 Lady Zephyr 160(+20) 30pts win  9/4, 2nd<br>Looks the value bet of the day at around 3/1<br>Weth   12.45 Provocative 144(+14) 20pts win NR<br>            1.55 Burwood Breeze 141(+17) 20pts win  9/4,  2nd<br>Ling     1.50 Zalkani 98(+13) 10pts ew  7/1 unplaced<br>           3.30 Paparazi 100(+14) 10pts ew  4/1 unpl

Stakes  160pts      loss  75pts

Weekly Total<br>Stakes 520pts    loss 169pts

Running Total<br>Stakes 9,007pts   loss 229pts (-2.5%)<br>

<br>(Edited by Artemis at 4:10 pm on Jan. 15, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 5:22 pm on Jan. 16, 2005)

[Artemis]

Not many qualifying races today – a RP top-rated of 90+(flat) and 120+(jumps). Also, not many of those races that did qualify produced a rating of 10+ (flat) and 13+(jumps) above the base form rating.

Only two qualifiers:

Wolv 2.15 Prince Dayjur 100(+11)  20pts win  won 10/11<br>         3.50 Heat Of THe NIght 103(+18) 10pts win  won 2/1

Stakes 30pts    profit 38pts

Both of the above are likely to be around evens or slight odds against.

The only other race that produced qualifying ratings was the competitive handicap at Wolverhampton(3.20).<br>The top ratings are:

My Pension         109 (+13)  7th 6/1<br>Silent Storm        107 (+12)  6th 6/1<br>Penwell Hill         105<br>Island Rapture   105<br>Fiddler’s Creek    105

My Pension is only 2 points clear, so does not qualify as a bet (minimum qualifying criteria 3 or more ahead of nearest rival).

(Edited by Artemis at 6:59 pm on Jan. 17, 2005)

[Artemis]

Two qualifiers today:

Folk   3.30 Leith Hill Flyer 128(+15) 10pts ew   3/1, fell<br>Towc  3.10 Banker Count 139(+15) 20pts win  won 10/3

Sorry, three:

Towc  2.10 Limerick Boy 141(+18)  30pts win  5/4, fell

Stakes  70pts    profit 17pts

(Edited by Artemis at 10:30 am on Jan. 18, 2005)<br>

(Edited by Artemis at 3:58 pm on Jan. 18, 2005)

[Artemis]

Two qualifiers:

Newc  1.20 Jazz D’Estruval 147(+13) 20pts win<br>-won’t be any bigger than 6/4: reasonable but no value. NR<br>Ling    2.10 Manic 100(+13) 10pts ew <br>around 11/2 this morning: that looks fair.  6/1, 2nd

Stakes 20pts   profit 2pts

There is a decent handicap at Lingfield(2.40) which didn’t produce a clear qualifier. The top ratings are:

Kew Green             111(+13) 2nd 5/1<br>Compton Drake      110(+12)<br>Mad Carew             108<br>Weecando              107<br>Tight Squeeze         106<br>Alfridini                    106

Although this race is competitive, the top-rating of +13 is below the average for a handicap and I wouldn’t be too surprised if there is a turn up. The forecast favourite, Cordial has a poor rating(101), but will almost certainly turn out to be better than that.

(Edited by Artemis at 8:28 am on Jan. 20, 2005)

[Author]

Posts